Confident MLB Prop Betting Calls - August 1st, 2025

Elly De La Cruz presents a compelling case for exceeding 1.5 total bases against the Atlanta Braves. His season-long performance is marked by a robust .285 batting average and a formidable .489 slugging percentage, indicating a consistent ability to generate extra-base hits. This is further supported by MySportsFeeds data, which shows he averages 1.87 total bases per game, a testament to his multi-base output.

The matchup against Bryce Elder is particularly advantageous. Elders struggles are evident in his 6.29 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, suggesting a propensity to allow baserunners and hits. With a manageable 7.5 K/9 rate, Elder is less likely to dominate a contact-oriented hitter like De La Cruz, who boasts a .285 average, increasing the likelihood of balls being put in play.

Great American Ball Park, known for being hitter-friendly, provides an environment conducive to offensive production and higher total base counts. De La Cruzs typical placement in the middle of the batting order maximizes his plate appearances, and his elite speed, evidenced by 29 stolen bases, adds another dimension to his total base accumulation, even on singles. His consistency is further underscored by a 42 extra-base hit total in 110 games, meaning over a third of his games feature multiple bases on a single hit.

The team context also favors him, as the Reds are expected to be engaged in a competitive game, ensuring he receives his full complement of opportunities. The overall value is strong, with a significant edge over implied probabilities, making this a highly recommended prop.

Shohei Ohtani is in exceptional form, making the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop a highly attractive play. Over his last seven games, he has been on an absolute tear, hitting .380 with five home runs and clearing the 1.5 total bases line in six of those contests. This demonstrates a remarkable level of consistent, high-impact offensive production.

The pitching matchup against Yu Darvish presents a significant platoon advantage for Ohtani, a left-handed hitter. Darvish has shown vulnerability against left-handed power bats this season, surrendering a .280 average and eight home runs to them. Ohtanis historical success against Darvish, including a .320 batting average and three home runs in 25 at-bats, further solidifies this advantage.

Dodger Stadium is expected to offer ideal hitting conditions, with warm temperatures and a slight breeze favoring offensive output. Ohtanis consistent placement batting second in the potent Dodgers lineup ensures he receives approximately four to five plate appearances per game, maximizing his opportunities to accumulate bases. The Dodgers offense is also currently firing on all cylinders, averaging 6.5 runs per game, which creates more favorable run-scoring situations for Ohtani.

His elite OPS against right-handed pitchers (.1050) underscores his dominance in these situations. The confluence of his red-hot hitting streak, a favorable matchup against a pitcher he historically performs well against, and conducive environmental factors makes this prop a strong candidate for success.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to score Over 0.5 Runs, a bet strongly supported by his exceptional run-scoring rate and a favorable matchup. He has successfully scored in a remarkable 72.7% of his games this season (80 runs in 110 games), a figure that significantly outpaces the implied probability of 57.4% from the -135 odds. This indicates a substantial edge in the market. De La Cruzs ability to score is multifaceted, stemming from his elite speed (29 stolen bases), strong on-base skills (.363 OBP), and power (19 home runs).

These attributes provide multiple avenues for him to reach base and subsequently cross the plate. The matchup against Bryce Elder is a key driver for this bet. Elders high ERA (6.29), WHIP (1.61), and tendency to allow a .298 batting average against suggest a high likelihood of baserunners and scoring opportunities for the Reds. Playing at Great American Ball Park, a hitter-friendly venue, and under optimal weather conditions (78°F, light winds) further enhances the potential for offensive production.

De La Cruzs consistent 72.7% run-scoring rate is not a statistical anomaly; it is backed by sustainable skill indicators such as his .489 slugging percentage and 50 walks, demonstrating that his performance is skill-driven. The advanced metrics from MySportsFeeds support a true probability of 72.7% for him to score, which rises to 74.7% when factoring in the advantageous matchup against Elder. This substantial 15.3% edge is a clear indicator of value. The risk assessment shows low statistical variance due to a large sample size and minimal regression risk, as his run production is rooted in consistent skills.