Top MLB Prop Betting Picks: August 17th, 2025

Andrew Benintendi presents a compelling opportunity to exceed his 0.5 RBI threshold, driven by a robust statistical foundation and favorable situational factors. His established 0.522 RBI per game rate, derived from 47 RBIs in 90 games, significantly outpaces the implied probability of his current prop odds. This consistent run-producing ability is further amplified by the hitter-friendly environment of Kauffman Stadium, which generally boosts offensive output.

Benintendis consistent placement in the White Sox batting order ensures he will see ample opportunities with runners on base, a critical element for RBI production. The matchup against Kansas City Royals pitching, which carries a 3.80 RA/G, suggests an exploitable staff. While not a dominant unit, their run prevention metrics are not so elite as to completely suppress Benintendis proven capabilities.

His .409 slugging percentage is a key indicator of his power potential, increasing the likelihood of extra-base hits that often translate to RBIs. The absence of specific recent form data is mitigated by his large 90-game sample size, which strongly suggests a stable and sustainable performance level. The mathematical edge of 10.5% is substantial, indicating a market undervaluation of Benintendis run-driving prowess.

This prop is not heavily reliant on extreme hot streaks but rather on his consistent ability to drive in runs, a skill he has demonstrated throughout the season. The risk of regression is low, as his performance is well within his established season averages, making this a calculated and well-supported play.

Kenneth Walker III is positioned for a strong performance in the Anytime Touchdown market, with his role as the Seahawks lead back and the teams commitment to a run-heavy offense being key drivers. His season average of 0.5 touchdowns per game indicates a consistent scoring threat, and this prop at -110 offers significant value. The Seahawks projected 45% run play distribution suggests Walker III will receive a substantial workload, estimated at 15-18 carries, including crucial goal-line opportunities.

The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers run defense, which may be hampered by key defensive absences, presents a potentially exploitable weakness. While the 49ers are typically stout against the run, any significant limitations on their defensive front could open up opportunities for Walker III. His commanding 70-75% share of the Seahawks running back carries ensures his volume will remain high, regardless of minor game script adjustments.

The historical data, showing him averaging 0.4 touchdowns against the 49ers and performing better at home, further bolsters this pick. The 9.2% edge calculated for this prop highlights a clear market inefficiency. The implied probability from the -110 odds is 47.6%, while our projected 52% win probability indicates a strong value proposition.

The stability of the line at -110 also suggests market confidence in this pricing. Walker IIIs consistent snap count percentage, projected at 60-65%, reinforces his critical role in the Seahawks offensive scheme.

Chelsea Gray is a prime candidate to surpass her 10.5-point line against the Dallas Wings, a matchup that presents a clear defensive advantage. Her season average of 11.1 points per game already exceeds the set line, providing a solid statistical baseline. The Las Vegas Aces are in formidable form, riding a 5-game winning streak, which translates to a high-momentum offensive environment that benefits key players like Gray.

The Dallas Wings, with their 9-25 record, represent a defense that Gray is well-equipped to exploit. Historically, the Aces have secured close wins against the Wings, indicating Grays ability to perform effectively in these specific matchups. As a pivotal offensive contributor for the Aces, Gray is guaranteed substantial scoring opportunities and a significant role in the teams offensive schemes.

Her expected minutes and usage rate are high, barring an extreme blowout scenario. The statistical edge of 3.54% and an implied probability of 51.46% for the Over 10.5 points, compared to a projected 55% win probability, highlights a valuable opportunity. While the negative Kelly Criterion suggests a conservative staking approach, the fundamental analysis points to a strong likelihood of Gray exceeding her point total.

The indoor playing conditions and lack of specific arena or referee impact suggest neutral external factors, allowing the players performance and matchup dynamics to be the primary drivers.