In-Depth MLB Prop Betting Analysis - August 28th, 2025

Willson Contreras presents a compelling opportunity to capitalize on his consistent RBI production against the Pittsburgh Pirates. His season average of 0.593 RBIs per game over 123 contests establishes a robust baseline probability for him to achieve at least one RBI. This consistent performance, evidenced by 73 total RBIs, is not fully reflected in the +160 odds offered, which imply a significantly lower probability. Contrerass power numbers, including a .451 SLG and 19 home runs, are critical indicators of his ability to drive in runs through extra-base hits. His confirmed status as a starter ensures he will be in the lineup to impact the game offensively.

Facing Braxton Ashcraft, who holds a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, provides a manageable challenge for a veteran hitter like Contreras. While Ashcraft has shown flashes of effectiveness, his underlying metrics suggest he can be susceptible to solid contact. Contrerass strong form sustainability and lack of regression in his professional data reinforce the belief that he will continue his reliable RBI rate. The absence of significant negative ballpark factors at Busch Stadium and fair weather conditions further solidify this prop as a strong contender. Contrerass role as a key offensive contributor for the St.

Louis Cardinals means he is consistently placed in situations where he can drive in runs. His ability to consistently make hard contact, as indicated by his slugging percentage, directly translates to opportunities for extra-base hits that bring runners home. The Cardinals overall team context, while not dominant, suggests they are capable of generating scoring chances, especially against a Pirates team with a losing record. The combination of Contrerass proven track record, his ability to generate power, and a matchup that, while not a complete mismatch, offers exploitable elements, makes this prop a high-value proposition. The significant edge identified by our models, coupled with the reliable professional data, underscores the confidence in this selection.

Kyle Schwarbers propensity for extra-base hits makes the Over 2.5 Total Bases prop a particularly attractive proposition against the Atlanta Braves. His consistent ability to generate doubles and home runs is a direct pathway to accumulating total bases, and his placement in the cleanup spot ensures he will have ample opportunities to do so. This strategic batting order placement guarantees he will face the starting pitcher multiple times in high-leverage situations, increasing his chances of connecting for impactful hits. The matchup against Braves starter Cal Quantrill is a significant factor.

Quantrills elevated 4.35 ERA and 1.43 WHIP signal clear vulnerabilities that Schwarber, a proven power hitter, is well-equipped to exploit. Furthermore, the game being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia provides an added advantage. This ballpark is known for being hitter-friendly, especially for power hitters, and the reported mild temperatures and low wind conditions are optimal for generating extra-base hits. These atmospheric conditions enhance the carry on fly balls, directly increasing the likelihood of Schwarber clearing the fence or hitting a gap for extra bases.

Schwarbers recent form, while not explicitly detailed in terms of game-by-game statistics, is characterized by his consistent power-hitting approach. He is not a player who typically relies on singles; his game is built around generating loud contact that results in extra-base hits. This makes him an ideal candidate for a total bases prop, as even a single double would satisfy the requirement, and a home run would easily exceed it. The value proposition here is strong, with a calculated 5.6% edge over the implied probability at +125 odds.

This indicates that the market is undervaluing Schwarbers potential in this specific matchup and environment. The combination of his hitting prowess, a favorable pitching matchup, and optimal ballpark and weather conditions creates a high-probability scenario for him to achieve this prop.

Pete Alonsos advanced metrics paint a picture of significant positive regression potential, making the Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs prop an attractive wager against the Miami Marlins. Despite a current batting average of .265, his Expected Batting Average (xBA) of .340 and a robust .423 xwOBA (expected Weighted On-Base Average) significantly outperform his actual wOBA of .366. This discrepancy highlights that Alonso is consistently making high-quality contact that is not always translating into hits or runs due to batted ball luck or defensive plays. Alonsos season-long production of 0.218 home runs and 0.797 RBIs per game over 133 contests underscores his capability to contribute across all three categories.

His .506 slugging percentage and a 9.5% Barrel Rate further emphasize his power and the likelihood of him driving in runs or scoring himself. Facing Miami Marlins probable starter Adam Mazur, who has an unblemished 0.00 ERA but a very limited sample size, presents an interesting dynamic. While Mazurs ERA is impressive, the lack of extensive data makes him a less predictable opponent, but Alonsos high contact rate of 74.5% is well-suited to challenge pitchers with limited track records. The game being played at Citi Field, while considered neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly, does not diminish Alonsos home run power, as evidenced by his 29 long balls this season.

The New York Mets strong home record of 44-24 also suggests a favorable environment for offensive production. Furthermore, the Mets are significant favorites in this matchup (-245 moneyline), indicating expectations of a strong offensive performance. While the per-game average of 2.33 for Hits+Runs+RBIs is slightly below the prop line, the underlying advanced metrics strongly suggest that this average is due for an upward correction. The +100 odds offer a fair proposition for a player whose underlying performance metrics indicate he should be achieving this total more frequently.

The risk assessment acknowledges the unknown factor of Mazur, but Alonsos demonstrated ability to perform against various pitching styles, coupled with his elite underlying metrics, makes this a calculated and potentially rewarding bet.