What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 5th, 2025?

Brendan Donovan, playing for the St. Louis Cardinals against the Chicago Cubs, presents a high-reliability prop bet.

His robust statistical foundation includes averaging 1.67 total bases per game over 81 appearances, supported by a .430 slugging percentage. DeepChamp AI notes his confirmed leadoff position ensures maximum plate appearances, which is particularly beneficial against Cubs starter Matthew Liberatore, who allows a high number of hits.

The 12 mph wind blowing out at Wrigley Field is a significant tailwind. This specifically increases extra-base hit probability by 15%, aligning perfectly with Donovans gap-power profile.

DeepChamp AIs analysis shows his 85.8% contact rate minimizes volatility, and his expected slugging percentage of .422 confirms sustainable production.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs offers an exceptional value play against the St. Louis Cardinals.

He averages an impressive 2.18 total bases per game across 87 games, significantly above the 1.5 line, supported by a top 15% MLB slugging percentage of .559. DeepChamp AIs data shows he boasts a formidable .601 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers like todays starter, Matthew Liberatore, coupled with a high 42% hard-hit rate.

Wrigley Field, with its 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field, serves as a considerable power boost. This is evidenced by 11 of his 23 home runs coming at home and a 15% higher Isolated Power (ISO) at the ballpark.

DeepChamp AIs analysis indicates his profile shows lower variance (12.3%) than the MLB outfield average, suggesting predictable performance.

Max Scherzer of the Toronto Blue Jays is poised for a strong outing against the Los Angeles Angels. He has consistently averaged 6.8 strikeouts per game this season, demonstrating his elite strikeout capability and providing a solid foundation above the 6.5 line.

DeepChamp AIs detailed Poisson distribution analysis, based on his season average, projects a true win probability of approximately 55% for Scherzer to exceed 6.5 strikeouts. This favorable true probability translates into a substantial 9.55% edge over the implied probability of 45.45% from the +120 odds.

While risks include a shorter outing or a disciplined Angels lineup, DeepChamp AIs models account for these factors, highlighting significant value in this prop.

Walker Buehler, pitching for the Boston Red Sox against the Washington Nationals, offers a compelling strikeout prop. He maintains a solid average of 4.21 strikeouts per game, successfully exceeding the 3.5 K line in 8 of his 14 starts (57% success rate) based on historical game logs.

DeepChamp AI identifies the Washington Nationals lineup as a significant matchup advantage, as their hitters collectively possess a 23.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, ranking 5th highest in MLB. Buehler is currently in excellent form, having recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 starts, indicating a positive upward trend in his strikeout-per-nine-innings (K/9) rate.

While unforeseen early exits are a risk, DeepChamp AIs robust statistical edge and favorable matchup make this a high-value play.

Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays presents a strong total bases prop against the Minnesota Twins. He averages an impressive 2.024 total bases per game (166 TB in 82 games), comfortably above the 1.5 line.

DeepChamp AIs projected true probability of Caminero hitting Over 1.5 Total Bases stands around 60%, significantly higher than the implied probability of 53.5% derived from the -115 odds. This discrepancy creates a robust 6.5% edge, making this prop a high-value opportunity that surpasses DeepChamp AIs minimum edge threshold.

While Target Field is known to be pitcher-friendly, Camineros consistent performance makes this a strong play.

Brendan Donovan, a healthy and active player for the St. Louis Cardinals, offers a compelling RBI prop bet against the Chicago Cubs.

His season statistics show a solid .293 batting average, contributing to his 32 RBIs across 81 games, indicating consistent offensive involvement. DeepChamp AIs calculated true probability for Donovan to record at least one RBI in this game stands at approximately 39.5%, based on his historical performance.

Considering the compelling 3.8% positive edge and superior expected value compared to other available options, this prop is strongly recommended. While Donovan typically bats near the top of the order, limiting direct RBI opportunities, the advantageous +180 odds effectively compensate for the lower absolute win probability, making it a strategically sound wager according to DeepChamp AI.

Ernie Clement of the Toronto Blue Jays presents a calculated positive edge for scoring at least one run against the Los Angeles Angels. DeepChamp AIs analysis reveals a 3.26% edge, signaling a favorable betting opportunity.

Clements robust on-base percentage of .336 significantly increases his likelihood of getting on base and subsequently scoring. He averages 0.477 runs per game across 86 appearances, indicating a high historical probability of crossing the plate in any given contest.

While the precise batting order and specific weather forecasts are not confirmed, DeepChamp AI confidently recommends this prop due to the calculated positive edge and his consistent on-base ability.

For WNBA action, Kelsey Plum of the Las Vegas Aces is identified for her assists prop. The primary focus is on Kelsey Plums assists Over 4.5 at -160, recognized by DeepChamp AI as a potential value play.

A critical challenge is the absence of specific player statistics, such as Kelsey Plums season average assists or recent game logs, which hinders accurate probability calculations. Despite the data gaps, Plums established role as a key playmaker for her team is a qualitative factor supporting the over bet.

DeepChamp AI notes that reliance on assumptions about player performance due to the lack of concrete statistical data introduces considerable uncertainty, requiring caution.