What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 5th, 2025?

DeepChamp AI identifies Pete Crow-Armstrong as a top MLB prop bet for July 5th, 2025. He averages an impressive 2.18 total bases per game across 87 contests, significantly exceeding the 1.5 line. His .559 slugging percentage ranks him in the top 15% of MLB hitters.

Crow-Armstrong boasts a formidable .601 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, aligning perfectly with todays starter, Matthew Liberatore. His high 42% hard-hit rate against southpaws makes him particularly dangerous in this matchup. Wrigley Fields favorable conditions, with a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field, provide a considerable power boost.

This is evidenced by 11 of his 23 home runs coming at home, and a 15% higher Isolated Power (ISO) at the ballpark. DeepChamp AIs models project a true win probability of 73.6% for this prop, yielding an outstanding 30.1% edge over the implied odds. This makes Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases a highly recommended, high-value proposition.

DeepChamp AI highlights Jo Adell as a high-value MLB prop bet for July 5th, 2025. His .512 slugging percentage ranks in the top 15% of MLB, demonstrating strong multi-base upside. Adell has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 55% of his games this season.

The Rogers Centre, with its artificial turf and shallow corners, significantly amplifies extra-base hit potential, especially for right-handed hitters like Adell. This boosts his expected ISO by +12% against right-handers, creating a favorable environment. Adell faces Max Scherzer, who carries a 4.24 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Scherzers 25% hard-hit rate to right field aligns perfectly with Adells potent 42% pull rate, increasing the likelihood of pulling extra-base hits. DeepChamp AIs analysis indicates a robust 58.6% win probability for this prop. This translates to an impressive 18.6% edge over the implied probability, making Jo Adell Over 1.5 Total Bases a highly recommended play.

DeepChamp AI identifies Rob Refsnyder as a compelling MLB prop bet for July 5th, 2025, due to a substantial statistical edge. Refsnyders consistent season batting average of .270 provides a strong foundation for reaching the 2-hit threshold.

Our in-depth probabilistic modeling estimates his true probability of recording 2+ hits at 39.66%. This is significantly higher than the implied probability of 24.39% from the +310 odds, creating a substantial 15.27% edge.

As a likely everyday starter positioned favorably in the Red Sox lineup, Refsnyder is projected to receive ample at-bats. This maximizes his opportunities for multiple hits against the Washington Nationals.

Given the significant positive expected value and favorable matchup, DeepChamp AI strongly recommends taking Rob Refsnyder Over 1.5 Hits.

DeepChamp AI highlights Trevor Story as a strong MLB prop bet for July 5th, 2025. His .487 slugging percentage and impressive 15.9% barrel rate position him as a consistent threat for multi-base hits, ranking top-15 among qualified shortstops.

Story boasts a favorable matchup against Nationals LHP Mitchell Parker, who carries a 5.17 ERA and allows a .287 AVG to right-handed hitters. This aligns perfectly with Storys .302 xwOBA versus southpaws, indicating a strong advantage.

Batting 5th in a high-OBP Red Sox lineup, Story is strategically positioned behind Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. This maximizes his opportunities with runners on base, further boosting his total base potential.

DeepChamp AIs analysis shows a 52.3% win probability for this prop, translating to an 8.8% edge. This confluence of advanced power metrics, favorable matchup, and strategic lineup placement makes Trevor Story Over 1.5 Total Bases a highly valuable betting opportunity.

DeepChamp AI identifies Willi Castro as a reliable MLB prop bet for July 5th, 2025. Castro boasts a calculated true win probability of 72.2% for this hit prop, significantly boosted by his consistent .274 batting average.

His advantageous placement in the leadoff spot for the Minnesota Twins maximizes his plate appearances. This provides ample opportunities to record at least one hit against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The bet offers a compelling 5.5% edge, derived from a 72.2% true probability against an implied probability of 66.7% (-200 odds). This is further supported by Castros strong 72.2% contact rate, which exceeds Taj Bradleys .243 BAA.

This wager is grounded in a statistically reliable foundation, with Castros .274 batting average recorded over a substantial 66-game sample size. DeepChamp AI highly recommends Willi Castro Over 0.5 Hits for its compelling value.

DeepChamp AI presents Junior Caminero as a valuable MLB prop bet for July 5th, 2025. His season-long performance, specifically 54 RBIs in 82 games, translates to a robust 0.66 RBIs per game average, indicating strong run-producing capabilities.

The calculated true probability for him to record Over 0.5 RBIs stands at 48.6%, suggesting a high likelihood of him crossing the plate at least once. This reflects his consistent ability to drive in runs.

Priced at +120 odds, the implied probability for this prop is 45.45%. This creates a significant positive gap when compared to his true probability, highlighting a betting inefficiency identified by DeepChamp AI.

Given the positive edge and strong statistical backing, Junior Caminero Over 0.5 RBIs is a recommended play for this matchup against the Minnesota Twins.