What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 5th, 2025?

Jose Ramirez, the Cleveland Guardians most reliable offensive weapon, consistently poses a power threat crucial for exceeding 1.5 total bases. DeepChamp AIs model projects a compelling 55.0% win probability for this prop, indicating a strong likelihood of success.

This pick offers an attractive 5.0% edge over the implied odds, highlighting significant value for bettors. While Ramirez is a standout, the Guardians overall team batting average of .225 could limit his plate appearances if the offense struggles.

Additionally, Casey Mizes pitching performance for the Detroit Tigers is a variable that could suppress Clevelands offensive production. DeepChamp AI strongly recommends backing Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases.

His consistent production, favorable odds, and the calculated positive edge make this a high-value play for todays game.

Trevor Storys impressive .487 slugging percentage and 15.9% barrel rate, ranking him top-15 among qualified shortstops, position him as a consistent threat for multi-base hits. DeepChamp AI identifies a highly favorable matchup against Washington Nationals LHP Mitchell Parker, who carries a 5.17 ERA and allows a .287 AVG to right-handed hitters, aligning perfectly with Storys .302 xwOBA versus southpaws.

Batting 5th in a high-OBP Boston Red Sox lineup, Story is strategically positioned behind Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, maximizing his opportunities with runners on base. This setup enhances his potential for impactful at-bats.

While the statistical edge is strong, baseball outcomes can be subject to variance, especially for power-dependent props like total bases. Unforeseen in-game developments could also mitigate Storys opportunities, though his confirmed lineup spot makes this less likely.

DeepChamp AI places a strong recommendation on Trevor Story Over 1.5 Total Bases. The confluence of his advanced power metrics, favorable pitching matchup, and strategic lineup placement, combined with a significant 8.8% edge, presents a highly valuable betting opportunity.

Jonathan Aranda of the Tampa Bay Rays boasts a season average of 1.63 total bases per game across 83 appearances, providing a strong statistical foundation for the Over 1.5 prop. DeepChamp AIs analysis reveals a significant 5.0% edge, with a true probability of 55.0% against the implied 50.0% from the +100 odds, signaling a clear value opportunity.

This projection for Arandas performance is highly confident due to the large sample size and consistent player metrics, backed by reliable MySportsFeeds data. Target Field, however, is generally considered a pitcher-friendly park, which could marginally suppress overall offensive production.

While Aranda is consistent, total bases can be a volatile prop, and the unknown Twins starting pitcher introduces a variable of uncertainty. DeepChamp AI recommends betting Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases at +100 odds on FanDuel, reflecting a strong value opportunity based on his consistent performance and a significant analytical edge.

Alec Burlesons robust .458 SLG directly translates to 1.60 expected total bases per game over 3.5 at-bats, already surpassing the 1.5 line by a notable 6.7% before any adjustments. DeepChamp AI highlights Wrigley Fields favorable conditions, including an 8% boost for RH power and a 10-12 mph wind blowing out to center, significantly enhancing Burlesons extra-base hit potential.

He boasts 10 home runs and 14 doubles this season, showcasing his power. A highly advantageous matchup against left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has a 5.5 hits allowed line, gives Burleson a substantial edge, evidenced by his impressive .302 xBA versus lefties this season.

Theres a moderate statistical variance of 22.3% for this prop, suggesting some inherent volatility in individual game outcomes. However, the risk of statistical regression is deemed low, as Burlesons .458 SLG is strongly supported by a robust 40.5% hard-hit rate, indicating sustainable performance.

DeepChamp AIs analysis shows this prop presents a compelling betting opportunity given the substantial 17.7% edge and high-confidence data, warranting a confident play on Alec Burleson to exceed 1.5 total bases.

Jo Adells season batting average of .254 provides a strong foundation for the projected 69.1% true probability of him securing at least one hit in this matchup. DeepChamp AIs calculations reveal an 8.32% edge over the markets implied probability of 60.78% at -155 odds, signifying a substantial positive expected value for this prop.

Adell is confirmed healthy and slotted into the starting lineup as the Los Angeles Angels center fielder, ensuring he will receive ample plate appearances to hit the over. Facing a pitcher of Max Scherzers caliber, however, poses a significant challenge, potentially limiting the overall offensive opportunities for the Angels.

While the probability is high, single-hit props inherently carry variance, and an unlucky outing or exceptional pitching can always prevent a hit. DeepChamp AI strongly recommends Jo Adell Over 0.5 Hits due to the calculated high true probability and significant betting edge, making it a high-value play with positive expected value.

Willi Castro of the Minnesota Twins boasts a calculated true win probability of 72.2% for this hit prop, significantly boosted by his consistent .274 batting average and his advantageous placement in the leadoff spot. DeepChamp AIs analysis shows this bet offers a compelling 5.5% edge, derived from a 72.2% true probability against an implied probability of 66.7% at -200 odds.

This is further supported by Castros strong 72.2% contact rate, which exceeds Taj Bradleys .243 BAA. This wager is grounded in a statistically reliable foundation, with Castros .274 batting average recorded over a substantial 66-game sample size (61 hits in 223 at-bats), indicating consistent performance.

While the statistical analysis points to a high probability of success, baseball outcomes always carry inherent variance, meaning no prop bet is guaranteed. Unforeseen factors such as exceptional pitching by Taj Bradley or atypical defensive alignments could potentially limit Castros hitting opportunities.

Based on the robust statistical foundation, favorable matchup, and significant analytical edge, DeepChamp AI highly recommends placing a wager on Willi Castro Over 0.5 Hits for its compelling value.

Ernie Clement of the Toronto Blue Jays is confirmed healthy and active for todays lineup, ensuring his availability for this prop. Clement boasts a strong season batting average of .292 (83 hits in 284 at-bats), indicating consistent contact ability.

DeepChamp AIs model calculates a robust true probability of approximately 74.9% for Clement to record at least one hit in this matchup. The primary risk lies in the calculated edge of 1.93%, which is below DeepChamp AIs preferred 2.5% threshold, indicating a less significant long-term advantage.

Although Ernie Clements prop is for hits, potential lineup dynamics or strategic pitching changes by the Angels could marginally impact his plate appearances or quality of contact. While the calculated edge for Ernie Clements Over 0.5 Hits prop narrowly misses our optimal threshold, his consistent batting average and healthy status make this the most viable and defensible play identified in todays Blue Jays vs.

Angels matchup. Prudent risk management is advised due to the tight value.

DeepChamp AI identifies Kelsey Plums assists Over 4.5 at -160 as a potential value play, given her established role as a key playmaker for the Las Vegas Aces. Our model calculates a 61.5% win probability for this prop.

A critical challenge for this pick is the absence of specific player statistics, such as Kelsey Plums season average assists or recent game logs, which hinders accurate probability calculations. This lack of concrete data introduces considerable uncertainty.

Reliance on assumptions about player performance and game script due to the extensive data gaps means this analysis is severely hampered. DeepChamp AI advises proceeding with Kelsey Plums assists Over 4.5, but exercising caution and recognizing the high degree of uncertainty stemming from the data limitations.