Best MLB Prop Bets for July 05 - Expert Analysis

Brendan Donovan consistently demonstrates his hitting prowess, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop a highly reliable play. His impressive season batting average of .293 highlights his ability to make consistent contact and get on base. This fundamental skill set is critical for securing at least one hit in any given game, providing a strong foundation for this wager. Donovan averages an impressive 1.136 hits per game across 81 appearances this season. This statistical consistency significantly exceeds the half-hit threshold, indicating a high likelihood of success.

His role as a key fixture in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup ensures he receives ample plate appearances, typically four to five per game, maximizing his opportunities to record a hit. The primary risk for this prop involves an uncharacteristically hitless game from Donovan. While statistically infrequent given his consistent performance, it is always a possibility in baseball. Another consideration is fewer than expected plate appearances, which could occur due to an early game substitution or adverse game flow.

However, these scenarios are less probable given his importance to the team. Despite the implied probability from the -310 odds being slightly higher than our calculation suggests, the exceptionally high 75.0 percent win probability makes this a standout selection. This indicates a strong belief in the ability of Donovan to deliver, making it one of the most confident and reliable plays among the available Cardinals player props for today. This prop is a foundational bet for many parlays or a solid single play for those seeking high probability. The consistent contact of Donovan, his reliable spot in the lineup, and historical performance metrics all converge to support the Over 0.5 Hits.

It represents a low risk opportunity to capitalize on a highly probable outcome.

Addison Barger exhibits strong power numbers that make the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop particularly appealing. His season-long slugging percentage of .512 clearly indicates his capability to accumulate bases consistently, often surpassing the 1.5 line with extra-base hits. This robust slugging metric is a direct indicator of his potential to deliver multiple bases in a single game. The average of 1.74 expected total bases per game for Barger directly supports the Over 1.5 total bases line. This expected value suggests a high likelihood of success, aligning with his actual performance.

Playing at Rogers Centre, a retractable roof stadium, further eliminates weather as a variable, ensuring consistent hitting conditions that favor offensive production. The primary risk involves the opposing pitcher, Jack Kochanowicz, who is a relatively unknown quantity. An unexpectedly dominant outing from Kochanowicz could limit Bargers opportunities at the plate, potentially impacting his ability to accumulate bases. While Barger is a regular in the lineup, a lower than average number of plate appearances in this specific game could also reduce his chances of hitting the Over. Despite these minor considerations, the statistical backing for Barger is compelling.

His consistent power numbers and favorable expected total bases output against the listed line present a strong case. The positive expected value of 3.0 percent at +100 odds makes this a highly recommended play for sharp bettors looking for value. This pick represents an excellent opportunity to capitalize on a player with proven power and a favorable environment. Bargers ability to hit for extra bases combined with a solid analytical edge positions this as a low risk, high reward wager. His consistent performance makes this a confident selection for todays MLB slate.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a standout pick for Over 1.5 Total Bases, boasting exceptional statistical support. He averages an impressive 2.18 total bases per game across 87 games, significantly exceeding the 1.5 line. This performance is underpinned by a top 15 percent MLB slugging percentage of .559, demonstrating his consistent ability to hit for power and accumulate bases. A crucial matchup advantage for Crow-Armstrong is his formidable .601 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, like todays starter Matthew Liberatore. This is coupled with a high 42 percent hard-hit rate, making him particularly dangerous in this specific scenario.

He thrives against southpaws, which significantly enhances his prospects for extra-base hits. Wrigley Field, with its typical 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field, serves as a considerable power boost for Crow-Armstrong. This favorable wind condition has historically impacted his performance, evidenced by 11 of his 23 home runs coming at home. Furthermore, he exhibits a 15 percent higher Isolated Power (ISO) at Wrigley Field, reinforcing the impact of his home ballpark. While statistical variance is always a factor in baseball, the profile of Crow-Armstrong shows a lower variance of 12.3 percent compared to the MLB outfield average of 15.1 percent.

This indicates a more predictable and consistent performance, reducing the inherent risk. Potential regression is also mitigated by his sustainable power numbers, with an expected slugging percentage of .542 closely aligning with his actual .559 SLG. Based on this robust statistical foundation, favorable matchup, and significant odds discrepancy, betting on Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases is highly recommended. The remarkable 30.1 percent edge and 9/10 value rating position this as a premier high-value proposition for todays MLB slate. This is a must-consider play.

The robust statistical foundation for Brendan Donovan provides high reliability for the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop. He averages 1.67 total bases per game over 81 appearances, coupled with a .430 slugging percentage. These numbers consistently exceed the 1.5 line, showcasing his ability to generate extra-base hits or multiple singles, making him a strong candidate for this wager. His confirmed leadoff position in the Cardinals lineup ensures maximum plate appearances, which is especially beneficial against Cubs starter Matthew Liberatore.

Liberatore is known to allow a high number of hits, creating a favorable matchup for Donovan to get on base and accumulate total bases early and often in the game. The weather conditions at Wrigley Field further enhance the prospects of Donovan. A 12 mph wind blowing out is a significant tailwind, specifically increasing extra-base hit probability by 15 percent. This aligns perfectly with the gap-power profile of Donovan, as he is adept at hitting balls into the outfield that can turn into doubles or triples, boosting his total base count.

Statistical variance is considered low for Donovan, primarily due to the impressive 85.8 percent contact rate of Donovan. This high contact rate effectively minimizes the volatility associated with hits, making his performance more predictable. Regression risk is also minimal for Donovan, as his expected slugging percentage (xSLG of .422) closely aligns with his actual .430 slugging, indicating sustainable production. Based on the confluence of robust statistical backing, a prime lineup position, a favorable pitcher matchup, and ideal weather conditions at Wrigley Field, the Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 Total Bases prop is highly recommended.

With an 11.1 percent edge and an 8/10 value rating, this is a high-value play that warrants strong consideration.

This team total bet on the Under 9.5 Total for the Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays game presents a compelling opportunity. Our projected total runs based on current team averages are approximately 8.45, providing a significant cushion against the 9.5 total line. This projection indicates that both offenses are expected to be contained, leading to a lower scoring affair. The Tampa Bay Rays boast a strong pitching staff with a 3.73 team ERA, which is expected to suppress scoring opportunities for the Twins lineup. Their ability to limit runs is a key factor in this Under bet.

Similarly, the Minnesota Twins pitching staff, despite being slightly higher at a 4.14 team ERA, is fully capable of containing the Rays offense and preventing a high-scoring outburst. The primary risk for this prop involves an unforeseen offensive breakout from the lineup of either team. This is particularly true for the Rays, who have explosive potential. Such an outburst could unexpectedly push the total over the 9.5 line. Another consideration is unexpectedly favorable hitting conditions at Target Field, such as strong winds blowing out, which could inflate the score beyond projections.

However, the analytical edge of 9.19 percent and a high value rating of 9.0/10 strongly support this wager. The underlying metrics suggest that the combined offensive output is unlikely to reach the posted total. Both teams rely on solid pitching and defensive play, which historically leads to lower scoring games when they face off. This pick is a testament to the power of collective team statistics and pitching strength. The combination of strong pitching from both sides and conservative offensive projections makes the Under 9.5 Total a highly attractive and low risk play.

It is a strategic choice for those looking to capitalize on pitching dominance.

The season average for Byron Buxton of 2.08 total bases per game significantly exceeds the 1.5 line, indicating a high probability of success based on his historical performance. Buxton is known for his ability to hit for power and collect extra-base hits, making him a prime candidate for this total bases prop. His consistent output this season provides a strong statistical foundation. Our calculated true probability for Buxton to achieve Over 1.5 total bases stands at 61.5 percent.

This figure is comfortably above the implied probability of 51.2 percent derived from the -105 odds. This substantial difference highlights a significant discrepancy between the market odds and our analytical assessment, indicating a strong value play. This prop offers a substantial calculated edge of 10.3 percent, making it a high-value play that comfortably meets our minimum criteria for profitable wagers. The positive edge signifies that the bet offers a favorable return over time, making it an attractive option for disciplined bettors seeking long-term profitability.

Total bases props can inherently be volatile, as they require either a single strong hit for multiple bases or multiple singles. Even consistent players can have off-nights, which is a consideration. While the matchup against Rays pitcher Taj Bradley presents opportunities, the ability of Bradley to limit innings for opposing offenses could subtly impact the total at-bats for Buxton, slightly reducing his chances. Despite these minor risks, we confidently recommend betting the Over 1.5 Total Bases for Byron Buxton.

The significant analytical edge and his proven offensive capabilities make this a compelling wager. Buxton is a dynamic player capable of changing the game with one swing, and his consistent production supports this confident recommendation.