What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 5th, 2025?

DeepChamp AIs analysis highlights Jonathan Aranda of the Tampa Bay Rays for his consistent offensive output. He boasts a season average of 1.63 total bases per game across 83 appearances, providing a strong statistical foundation for the Over 1.5 prop.

This bet offers a significant 5% edge, with a true probability of 55% against the implied 50% from the +100 odds, signaling a clear value opportunity. Our models, backed by reliable MySportsFeeds data, project Arandas performance with high confidence due to his large sample size and consistent player metrics.

While Target Field is generally considered a pitcher-friendly park, which could marginally suppress overall offensive production, Arandas consistent hitting profile mitigates this risk. The unknown Twins starting pitcher introduces a variable, but Arandas individual consistency remains paramount.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs presents an exceptional value play for July 5th. He averages an impressive 2.18 total bases per game across 87 games, significantly above the 1.5 line, supported by a top 15% MLB slugging percentage of .559.

DeepChamp AI notes his formidable .601 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers like todays starter, Matthew Liberatore, coupled with a high 42% hard-hit rate, making him particularly dangerous. Wrigley Field, with its 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field, serves as a considerable power boost, evidenced by 11 of his 23 home runs coming at home and a 15% higher Isolated Power (ISO) at the ballpark.

While statistical variance is always a factor, Crow-Armstrongs profile shows a lower variance (12.3%) than the MLB outfield average (15.1%), indicating more predictable performance. Potential regression is mitigated by his sustainable power numbers, with an expected slugging percentage of .542 closely aligning with his actual .559 SLG, suggesting his current output is well-supported by underlying metrics.

Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins is another strong candidate for total bases on July 5th. His season average of 2.08 total bases per game significantly exceeds the 1.5 line, indicating a high probability of success based on historical performance.

DeepChamp AIs calculated true probability for Buxton to achieve Over 1.5 total bases stands at 61.5%, comfortably above the implied probability of 51.2% derived from the -105 odds. This substantial discrepancy results in a calculated edge of 10.3%, making it a high-value play that comfortably meets our minimum criteria for profitable wagers.

While total bases props can inherently be volatile, requiring a single strong hit or multiple singles, Buxtons consistent production mitigates this. The matchup against Rays pitcher Taj Bradley presents opportunities, though Bradleys ability to limit innings for opposing offenses could subtly impact Buxtons total at-bats.

Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds is a prime target for an RBI prop on July 5th. His season averages demonstrate a strong ability to drive in runs, with 60 RBIs in 88 games, indicating consistent production within the Reds offense.

DeepChamp AIs model calculates the true probability for De La Cruz to record at least one RBI at 49.44%, significantly exceeding the implied probability of 35.09% from the +185 odds. This substantial discrepancy generates a robust 14.35% edge, well above the required 2.5% threshold for a high-value bet.

RBI opportunities are highly dependent on teammates reaching base, which can introduce variance regardless of individual hitting prowess. While the analysis is based on robust pre-game statistics, the live game situation is not accounted for, meaning De La Cruzs performance up to this point is unknown.

CJ Abrams of the Washington Nationals presents a compelling Over 1.5 Total Bases prop. Abrams elite leadoff position guarantees maximum plate appearances, which is crucial for accumulating total bases throughout the game.

DeepChamp AI identifies the opposing pitcher, Walker Buehler, as a favorable matchup, given his high ERA (6.45) and BAA (.280), indicating significant vulnerability ripe for extra-base hits. Furthermore, CJ Abrams is in excellent recent form, averaging 2.0 total bases per game over his last 7 outings, surpassing his season average.

Despite these strong indicators, baseball outcomes carry inherent variability, and a single game can always deviate from expected statistical trends. Walker Buehler, despite his recent struggles, could potentially deliver an uncharacteristically strong performance, limiting Abrams offensive opportunities.

TJ Friedl of the Cincinnati Reds is a strong candidate for an Over 0.5 Hits prop. DeepChamp AIs model shows a compelling 73.6% win probability for Friedl to record at least one hit, significantly exceeding the 47% threshold for high-confidence picks.

This prop offers a positive edge of 3.9%, making it a high-value betting opportunity that surpasses the required 2.5% minimum for our recommended plays. Friedls robust .283 batting average provides a solid statistical foundation for predicting at least one hit in todays matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies.

While confident, the probabilistic model relies on an assumed number of at-bats, which can vary based on game flow or an early exit. As a live game, unforeseen in-game situations (e.g., pitching changes, score blowouts) could slightly alter expected plate appearances.

Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays) is featured again by DeepChamp AI for his high probability of securing at least one hit. His season-long .316 batting average through 83 games played indicates exceptional consistency, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop highly favorable.

Our true probability calculation for Aranda to secure at least one hit stands at 78.2%, providing a healthy 6.0% edge against the sportsbooks implied probability of 72.22% for the -260 odds. Arandas impressive 83 games played this season confirms his consistent lineup presence and health, underpinning the reliability of this pick for regular at-bats.

The specific Minnesota Twins starting pitcher for this matchup is currently unconfirmed, introducing a minor variable to the pitcher-hitter dynamic. Additionally, heavy favorite odds of -260 imply significant juice, requiring a larger stake for a comparatively smaller return, which can deter some bettors.

Ernie Clement of the Toronto Blue Jays is identified by DeepChamp AI for his Over 0.5 Hits prop. Clement is confirmed healthy and active for todays lineup, ensuring his availability for this prop, and boasts a strong season batting average of .292 (83 hits in 284 at-bats), indicating consistent contact ability.

Our model calculates a robust true probability of approximately 74.9% for Clement to record at least one hit in this matchup. However, the primary risk lies in the calculated edge of 1.93%, which is below our preferred 2.5% threshold, indicating a less significant long-term advantage.

Although Ernie Clements prop is for hits, potential lineup dynamics or strategic pitching changes by the Angels could marginally impact his plate appearances or quality of contact. While the edge is tight, his consistent batting average and healthy status make this the most viable and defensible play identified in todays Blue Jays vs.

Angels matchup.