What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 5th, 2025?

DeepChamp AIs models highlight Rob Refsnyders Over 1.5 Hits prop as a top value play for July 5th. His consistent season batting average of .270 provides a strong foundation for reaching the two-hit threshold against the Washington Nationals.

Our in-depth probabilistic modeling estimates Refsnyders true probability of recording 2+ hits at 39.66%. This is significantly higher than the implied probability of 24.39% from the +310 odds, creating a substantial 15.27% edge for bettors.

As a likely everyday starter positioned favorably in the Boston Red Sox lineup, Refsnyder is projected to receive ample at-bats. This maximizes his opportunities for multiple hits, making this a compelling high-value pick from DeepChamp AI.

Alec Bohm consistently surpasses the 1.5 total bases line, averaging 1.54 TB per game this season and exceeding it in 54% of his outings. This is further supported by a strong .396 slugging percentage, according to DeepChamp AIs data.

Bohms cleanup spot in the Philadelphia Phillies potent lineup, situated behind key hitters like Harper and Schwarber, guarantees ample plate appearances and prime RBI opportunities. This strategic positioning enhances his chances for extra-base hits.

Citizens Bank Park offers a substantial advantage for right-handed hitters, boasting a +34% HR factor and +11% doubles factor for RHBs. This perfectly aligns with Bohms extra-base hit profile, contributing to a significant 29.3% edge identified by DeepChamp AI.

DeepChamp AI confirms Bryce Harper is in the starting lineup and healthy, ensuring his full opportunity to perform for the Philadelphia Phillies. This foundational element is critical for any player prop bet.

The matchup against Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo, who carries a 4.22 RA/9, presents a favorable opportunity for Harper to accumulate total bases. Lodolos higher earned run average suggests vulnerability that Harper can exploit.

Citizens Bank Park is a significant positive factor for Harper, known for boosting LHB home runs by 15% and contributing a +7% expectation to total bases for left-handed batters. This ballpark advantage, combined with Harpers form, leads to a 12.6% edge identified by DeepChamp AI.

Jonathan Arandas season-long .316 batting average through 83 games played indicates exceptional consistency, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop highly favorable. This consistent performance is a cornerstone of DeepChamp AIs confidence in this pick.

Our true probability calculation for Aranda to secure at least one hit stands at 78.2%, providing a healthy 6.0% edge against the sportsbooks implied probability of 72.22% for the -260 odds. This significant edge points to a mispriced line.

Arandas impressive 83 games played this season confirms his consistent lineup presence and health. This underpins the reliability of this pick for regular at-bats, making it a high-confidence play by DeepChamp AI standards.

Aja Wilson is a dominant force for the Las Vegas Aces, and with key teammate Chelsea Gray sidelined, her responsibilities, including rebounding, are likely to increase significantly. This amplified role makes her Over 10.5 Rebounds prop appealing to DeepChamp AI.

The Connecticut Sun hold a poor 2-15 record, suggesting a favorable matchup for Las Vegass star players to dominate the boards. This weak opponent further enhances Wilsons rebounding opportunities.

The +116 odds for Wilson to exceed 10.5 rebounds offer a significant statistical edge, projecting a win probability of approximately 50.5% against an implied probability of 46.3%. DeepChamp AIs analysis indicates a 4.2% edge here.

CJ Abrams elite leadoff position guarantees maximum plate appearances for the Washington Nationals, which is crucial for accumulating total bases. This strategic spot maximizes his opportunities to hit.

Opposing pitcher Walker Buehlers high ERA (6.45) and BAA (.280) indicate significant vulnerability, ripe for extra-base hits. DeepChamp AIs analysis highlights this favorable pitching matchup.

CJ Abrams is in excellent recent form, averaging 2.0 total bases per game over his last 7 outings, surpassing his season average. This hot streak contributes to the 5.9% edge identified by DeepChamp AI.

Bryce Harpers season performance indicates a consistent ability to drive in runs, averaging approximately 0.57 RBIs per game over 60 appearances. This provides a solid foundation for the Over 0.5 RBI prop, as analyzed by DeepChamp AI.

The calculated true probability for Harper to achieve at least one RBI is 43.3%. While just shy of the 47% confidence threshold, it still offers a realistic chance of success and is favorable against the odds.

This prop presents a compelling 4.08% positive edge over the implied probability of 39.22% from the +155 odds. DeepChamp AI marks it as a value bet despite the slightly lower win probability.

Breanna Stewart is a high-usage All-Star player for the New York Liberty, consistently relied upon for scoring. Her central role in the Libertys offense is a key factor in DeepChamp AIs analysis.

Playing at home in Barclays Center, Stewart benefits from a familiar environment with no travel fatigue for the Liberty. Home-court advantage can subtly boost player performance.

The current odds of -114 for Over 20.5 points suggest an implied probability of 53.27%. DeepChamp AIs projection offers a slight 1.73% edge when considering her expected performance, making it a viable option.