What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 5th, 2025?

Max Scherzer has consistently averaged 6.8 strikeouts per game this season, demonstrating his elite strikeout capability and providing a solid foundation above the 6.5 line. DeepChamp AIs detailed Poisson distribution analysis projects a true win probability of approximately 55% for Scherzer to exceed 6.5 strikeouts.

This favorable true probability translates into a substantial 9.55% edge over the implied probability of 45.45% from the +120 odds, highlighting significant value in this prop. While a shorter outing or a disciplined Angels lineup are primary risks, DeepChamp AI highly recommends playing Max Scherzer Over 6.5 Strikeouts at +120 due to the calculated 9.55% edge and strong underlying metrics.

Addison Bargers season-long slugging percentage of .512 clearly indicates his capability to accumulate bases, consistently surpassing the 1.5 line. His average of 1.74 expected total bases per game directly supports the Over 1.5 total bases, suggesting a high likelihood of success.

Playing at Rogers Centre, a retractable roof stadium, eliminates weather as a variable, ensuring consistent hitting conditions. DeepChamp AI identifies this as a highly recommended play with a positive expected value, despite the opposing pitcher being a relatively unknown quantity.

Jonathan Arandas season-long .316 batting average through 83 games played indicates exceptional consistency, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop highly favorable. DeepChamp AIs true probability calculation for Aranda to secure at least one hit stands at 78.2%, providing a healthy 6.0% edge against the sportsbooks implied probability of 72.22% for the -260 odds.

Arandas impressive 83 games played this season confirms his consistent lineup presence and health, underpinning the reliability of this pick for regular at-bats. DeepChamp AI recommends betting Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits at -260, as it offers a clear statistical advantage.

Jo Adells .512 slugging percentage, which ranks in the top 15% of MLB, combined with 19 home runs and 10 doubles, provides strong multi-base upside, exceeding 1.5 total bases in 55% of his games. The Rogers Centre, with its artificial turf and shallow corners, significantly amplifies extra-base hit potential, especially for right-handed hitters like Adell, boosting his expected ISO by +12% against right-handers.

DeepChamp AI notes the favorable matchup against Max Scherzer (4.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), as Scherzers 25% hard-hit rate to right field aligns perfectly with Adells potent 42% pull rate, increasing the likelihood of pulling extra-base hits. Based on a high 58.6% win probability and a compelling 18.6% edge, DeepChamp AI highly recommends the Jo Adell Over 1.5 Total Bases prop as a high-value bet.

Junior Camineros season-long performance, specifically his 54 RBIs in 82 games, translates to a robust 0.66 RBIs per game average, indicating strong run-producing capabilities. DeepChamp AIs calculated true probability for him to record Over 0.5 RBIs stands at 48.6%.

Priced at +120 odds, the implied probability for this prop is 45.45%, creating a significant positive gap when compared to his true probability. While the specific quality of the opposing starting pitcher could influence opportunities, Camineros general performance suggests a degree of matchup resilience.

Given the positive edge and strong statistical backing, DeepChamp AI recommends Junior Caminero Over 0.5 RBIs for this matchup.

Byron Buxtons season average of 2.08 total bases per game significantly exceeds the 1.5 line, indicating a high probability of success based on historical performance. DeepChamp AIs calculated true probability for Buxton to achieve Over 1.5 total bases stands at 61.5%, comfortably above the implied probability of 51.2% derived from the -105 odds.

This prop offers a substantial calculated edge of 10.3%, making it a high-value play that comfortably meets DeepChamp AIs minimum criteria for profitable wagers. DeepChamp AI confidently recommends betting the Over 1.5 Total Bases for Byron Buxton, capitalizing on the significant analytical edge and his proven offensive capabilities.

DeepChamp AIs analysis for Angel Reeses Over 13.5 Rebounds is severely limited by a lack of crucial player performance statistics, including recent rebounds per game and minutes trends. Without this data, a comprehensive evaluation of the bets value is impossible.

Missing defensive rebounding metrics for the Minnesota Lynx further prevents assessing matchup favorability. Consequently, DeepChamp AI cannot recommend this bet due to insufficient data, making it highly speculative and impossible to calculate a reliable edge.

DeepChamp AIs analysis for Kelsey Plums Over 4.5 Assists faces significant data gaps, including missing season average assists, recent game logs, and opponent defensive rankings. While Plum is an established key playmaker, the absence of specific player statistics hinders accurate probability calculations and a reliable assessment of value.

Reliance on assumptions about performance due to this lack of concrete data introduces considerable uncertainty. DeepChamp AI advises extreme caution for this bet, as a reliable edge cannot be confirmed.