What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 6th, 2025?

Drake Baldwin is projected by DeepChamp AI to successfully exceed 1.5 total bases, presenting a win probability of 50.0% against the implied probability of 46.5% derived from the +115 odds. A significant 3.5% edge has been identified for this prop, fulfilling our stringent selection criteria for profitable betting opportunities.

Truist Park, known as a hitter-friendly ballpark (ranked 5th for home runs in 2024), is expected to enhance opportunities for extra-base hits and, consequently, total bases. DeepChamp AI highly recommends the Over 1.5 Total Bases for Drake Baldwin, as this bet offers compelling value and aligns with his statistical profile and favorable playing conditions.

Jose Altuve demonstrates a robust 51.2% true probability of securing an RBI, derived from his impressive rate of 44 RBIs in 86 games, comfortably exceeding the 47% minimum threshold required for this prop. This particular prop offers an exceptional 16.7% edge, signifying a substantial discrepancy between the true probability and the implied probability of +190 odds, highlighting significant value for bettors.

Jose Altuve is confirmed to be batting in the crucial leadoff spot for the Astros, a position that maximizes his plate appearances and subsequent opportunities to drive in runs for his team. Given the compelling statistical edge of 16.7%, Jose Altuves consistent RBI production, and his advantageous leadoff spot, DeepChamp AI highly recommends this Over 0.5 RBIs prop.

Fermins .275 batting average from MySportsFeeds provides a strong statistical foundation for this hit prop, complemented by an 81.7% contact rate which minimizes strikeout risk. The matchup against Michael Lorenzen (4.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) is favorable, particularly given Lorenzens .261 BAA against right-handers, aligning well with Fermins hitting profile.

Chase Fields 106 park factor for right-handed hitters creates a conducive environment for hits, providing an additional boost to Fermins potential output. DeepChamp AI identifies a 6.2% edge for this prop.

Given the strong statistical backing, favorable matchup, and significant market edge, betting Over 0.5 Hits for Freddy Fermin is highly recommended.

Alec Bohm faces rookie RHP Chase Burns, who has an alarming 13.50 ERA and 2.44 WHIP, making him highly vulnerable to power hitters and creating prime RBI opportunities. Citizens Bank Park significantly boosts right-handed power by 11% (112 HR factor) due to its short left-field porch, aligning perfectly with Bohms hitting profile and extra-base hit tendencies.

Bohm is in solid recent form, exceeding 1.5 total bases in 50% of his last 10 games, including 3 extra-base hits against right-handed starters. DeepChamp AIs analysis reveals a 5.0% edge for this prop.

Given the compelling matchup advantage against a struggling rookie pitcher, favorable ballpark factors, and Bohms consistent recent form, the Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases prop is a strong play with clear positive expected value.

Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Hits prop offers the strongest value among analyzed Dodgers player bets, driven by a compelling 11.7% edge. DeepChamp AIs models indicate Betts boasts a true probability of 68.2% to record at least one hit, significantly higher than the implied probability of 56.5% from the -130 odds.

His season average of 0.975 hits per game underscores his consistent ability to secure a hit, making the Over 0.5 line highly achievable. DeepChamp AI recommends betting Over 0.5 Hits for Mookie Betts given the strong statistical edge and his consistent performance.

Nick Allen of the Atlanta Braves is identified by DeepChamp AI as a top value bet, specifically for his Over 0.5 Hits prop at -145 odds. Our analysis projects a robust 66.64% true win probability for Allen to record at least one hit, a significant advantage over the implied probability from the betting line.

This prop presents a compelling 7.46% edge, signaling substantial positive expected value for bettors. Given the compelling 7.46% edge and a calculated win probability of 66.64%, the Nick Allen Over 0.5 Hits prop at -145 is strongly recommended as a high-value bet for the Atlanta Braves vs.

Baltimore Orioles game.

Trevor Storys potential to score is significantly boosted by the Boston Red Soxs strong offensive output, averaging 4.86 runs per game. This robust team-level performance provides a solid foundation for his scoring opportunities.

The Washington Nationals pitching staff has shown notable vulnerability, yielding an average of 5.28 runs per game. This sets up a highly favorable offensive environment for the Red Sox and, consequently, for Story to cross home plate.

As a regular in the Red Sox lineup, Story is strategically positioned to benefit from the teams anticipated run production against a struggling opponent, leading DeepChamp AI to recommend the Over 0.5 runs.

Kyle Schwarber is confirmed as a starter in the lineup and currently healthy, ensuring full participation in this crucial home game. He possesses an elite power profile, evidenced by 27 home runs in 85 games this season and an impressive .922 OPS, placing him among the top 5% of MLB hitters.

Citizens Bank Park provides a significant 12% home run boost for left-handed batters and its short right field porch perfectly aligns with Schwarbers high pull rate. DeepChamp AIs analysis reveals a substantial 17.2% edge for this high-value prop.

This bet comes with a strong recommendation from DeepChamp AI, optimized by a 3.8% Kelly Criterion bankroll allocation, signifying a high-value opportunity that aligns both statistically and contextually.