What Are the Best MLB Prop Bets for July 6th, 2025?

Austin Riley is a consistent power threat for the Atlanta Braves, frequently hitting extra-base hits that drive total bases. Truist Park, a hitter-friendly venue, further enhances his offensive potential. DeepChamp AIs analysis highlights his strong season performance.

His 13 home runs in 88 games underscore his capability to exceed the 1.5 total bases line. This play combines a player in solid form with a favorable ballpark environment, presenting a clear statistical edge. While Truist Park is hitter-friendly, any particularly strong pitching performance from the Orioles starter or bullpen could suppress offensive opportunities.

Baseball is inherently variable, meaning even top hitters can have games where they only get singles or are walked, failing to accumulate the necessary total bases. DeepChamp AI confidently recommends Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases. This play combines a star player in solid form, a favorable ballpark environment, and attractive odds, making it a high-confidence wager for todays MLB action.

Nick Castellanos averages 1.693 total bases per game over 88 appearances, including 22 doubles, 1 triple, and 11 home runs. DeepChamp AIs true probability for Castellanos to achieve over 1.5 total bases is approximately 50.5%.

With implied odds of 50% from the +100 line, this prop offers a positive, albeit modest, edge. The primary risk lies in the minimal 0.5% edge, which leaves a very slim margin for error and requires favorable variance to be profitable over time.

Castellanos needs at least two singles or any extra-base hit to clear the 1.5 total bases line; a single hit would result in an Under outcome. Given the calculated positive edge and the need to select the best available value, the Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases at +100 is the recommended play, offering a slight mathematical advantage in todays game.

Corbin Carroll boasts a strong season average of 2.25 total bases per game, providing a robust foundation for the Over 1.5 line. Chase Field is a renowned hitter-friendly ballpark, especially advantageous for left-handed power bats like Carroll, enhancing extra-base hit potential.

DeepChamp AIs calculated true probability for Carroll exceeding 1.5 total bases is an impressive 70%. Uncertainty regarding Corbin Carrolls confirmed status in the starting lineup given previous Injury concerns and the necessity of real-time lineup verification is a risk.

Limited detailed statistical data on opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen and his specific splits against left-handed batters could slightly impact the precise matchup assessment. Given Corbin Carrolls strong season performance, the favorable hitting environment at Chase Field, and the substantial calculated edge, DeepChamp AIs recommendation is to confidently bet Over 1.5 Total Bases.

Courtney Williams maintains a stable 22.3% usage rate, serving as a reliable secondary creator for the Sky and consistently generating shot volume. She has averaged 14.2 points per game over her last 5 contests, indicating strong recent form and a recovery from a brief scoring dip.

DeepChamp AI notes that despite Minnesotas solid SG defense, Williams effective mid-range game (45.2% from 10-16ft) is well-suited to exploit their defensive scheme. The Minnesota Lynx allow the 4th-fewest assists to opposing shooting guards, which could indirectly limit Courtney Williams overall offensive impact.

Williams has a low career 3-point percentage (23.3%) against Minnesota, potentially restricting her scoring diversity if forced to rely on outside shots. DeepChamp AI recommends betting Over 12.5 Points for Courtney Williams at +100 odds, leveraging her consistent usage, recent scoring form, and a statistically advantageous matchup.

Angel Reese consistently demonstrates elite rebounding prowess, frequently accumulating high board totals that position her well above the 13.5 line. Her foundational role in the Chicago Sky lineup ensures extensive minutes and a high usage rate specifically for rebounding opportunities.

DeepChamp AIs analysis reveals a significant statistical edge for this prop. Foul trouble could significantly limit Angel Reeses playing time, thereby reducing her opportunities to accumulate rebounds.

An unexpectedly high shooting percentage from both teams could lead to fewer missed shots and, consequently, fewer rebounding opportunities. DeepChamp AI recommends betting on Angel Reese Over 13.5 Rebounds at -105 odds, capitalizing on her consistent elite performance.

Kyle Schwarber is confirmed as a starter and healthy, ensuring full participation in this crucial home game for the Philadelphia Phillies. He possesses an elite power profile, evidenced by 27 home runs in 85 games this season and an impressive .922 OPS, placing him among the top 5% of MLB hitters.

DeepChamp AIs models show a substantial edge for this prop. Citizens Bank Park provides a significant 12% home run boost for left-handed batters, and its short right field porch perfectly aligns with Schwarbers high pull rate.

As with any single-game home run prop, there is inherent variance and volatility, meaning even strong probabilities dont guarantee a specific outcome in one game. While mitigated by his lead-off spot, a slightly lower walk rate could theoretically limit additional plate appearances, though his 4.1% rate is still respectable.

This bet comes with a strong recommendation from DeepChamp AI, optimized by a 3.8% Kelly Criterion bankroll allocation, signifying a high-value opportunity that aligns both statistically and contextually.

The bet on Elly De La Cruz for Over 1.5 Total Bases offers a significant 7.45% edge, making it a high-value opportunity at +135 odds. De La Cruzs season average of 1.90 total bases per game already positions him favorably to exceed the 1.5 line.

Citizens Bank Park is known for its hitter-friendly environment, providing a natural boost to offensive production for a dynamic player like De La Cruz. Baseballs inherent variance means even strong probabilities dont guarantee outcomes, and a player can have an off-night regardless of favorable conditions.

While De La Cruz is a key player, an unexpected early exit or a string of unfavorable at-bats could limit his opportunities to accumulate total bases. DeepChamp AI recommends betting on Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases at +135, capitalizing on his strong season performance and highly favorable game conditions.

Garrett Crochets strikeout dominance is evident with an elite 11.2 K/9 rate, placing him in the top 5% of MLB pitchers. Hes cleared 8+ Ks in 11 of his 18 starts (61.1%).

The matchup is highly advantageous against the Washington Nationals, who strike out at a 24.8% clip vs. LHP (3rd highest in MLB), with key hitters like Riley Adams showing a staggering 45.2% K-rate.

Crochets consistent volume, averaging 6.4 innings per start, provides ample opportunity to secure 8.5 strikeouts, requiring just 1.32 K/inning, which is below his 1.44 season average. A primary risk involves the possibility of an early game exit for Crochet due to unexpected poor performance, a high pitch count leading to a shorter outing, or a rare injury mid-game.

While unlikely given the Nationals struggles against left-handers, an unforeseen offensive surge from the opposing lineup could limit Crochets opportunities to accumulate strikeouts. Based on the comprehensive analysis of Garrett Crochets elite strikeout metrics, the Nationals significant vulnerability to left-handed pitching, and the favorable odds presenting a clear edge, DeepChamp AI recommends backing Garrett Crochet to go Over 8.5 Strikeouts.