Top AI-Powered MLB Picks: July 18th, 2025

Michael Busch presents a compelling case for Over 0.5 RBIs, driven by his consistent run-producing ability and a favorable matchup. This season, Busch has been a reliable offensive force for the Chicago Cubs, accumulating 59 RBIs in just 90 games, which averages out to 0.66 RBIs per appearance. His robust .375 On-Base Percentage is particularly crucial for this prop, as it ensures he frequently gets into scoring positions or has opportunities with baserunners ahead of him, directly increasing his chances to drive in runs. His overall offensive profile, including a .290 batting average and a .550 slugging percentage with 19 home runs, further underscores his capacity to contribute significantly to the Cubs scoring efforts. The matchup against Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito is another key factor.

Giolito carries a 1.23 WHIP this season, indicating he allows a reasonable number of baserunners. This propensity for allowing traffic on the bases directly translates into more RBI opportunities for a hitter like Busch, who is typically positioned in the heart of the Cubs batting order. While Giolito has a respectable 3.36 ERA, the AI-powered insights focus on the baserunner metric as a direct precursor to RBI chances. Playing at Wrigley Field, a ballpark historically known for being hitter-friendly, adds another layer of advantage. The general characteristics of Wrigley tend to boost offensive production, which could lead to more scoring chances for the Cubs lineup as a whole, thereby benefiting Busch.

While no adverse wind conditions are specifically reported for today, the parks inherent nature often favors a higher-scoring environment, which aligns well with an RBI prop. Our advanced statistical modeling, leveraging Michael Busch season average of 0.66 RBIs per game, estimates a true probability of 48.4% for him to hit Over 0.5 RBIs in this game. When compared to the implied probability of 34.5% from the +190 odds, this reveals a substantial 13.9% edge. This significant algorithmic edge, coupled with Busch proven ability and the matchup dynamics, makes this a high-value proposition. The inherent variability of RBI opportunities is a known risk, as it relies on teammates reaching base, but Busch consistent performance mitigates much of this concern.

Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases is identified as a top value bet, supported by his strong underlying offensive metrics and the favorable characteristics of Wrigley Field. Busch has demonstrated excellent form this season, maintaining a robust .550 slugging percentage and averaging 1.83 total bases per game across 90 appearances. This consistent hitting prowess, which has already accumulated 165 total bases, indicates a high propensity for extra-base hits and multi-total base games, directly addressing the 1.5 line. Our rigorous probabilistic model, leveraging a Poisson distribution based on Busch season averages, projects a compelling 54.7% true probability of him achieving at least two total bases in this matchup.

This AI-powered insight is crucial, as it significantly exceeds the implied probability of 46.51% derived from the +115 odds on FanDuel, creating a substantial positive edge of 8.19%. This algorithmic advantage highlights the market undervaluation of Busch total bases potential. The venue, Wrigley Field, plays a significant role in this analysis. Known historically as a hitter-friendly ballpark, Wrigley is often conducive to higher offensive output, particularly benefiting batters aiming for extra-base hits.

While the specific probable starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox remains unconfirmed, Busch strong season-long numbers suggest his performance is not overly reliant on pitcher-specific matchups and maintains a high floor regardless of the opposing arm. His consistent production as a core offensive piece for the Chicago Cubs ensures he will be in the lineup and receive a full complement of at-bats, maximizing his opportunities. Despite the uncertainty regarding the Red Sox starting pitcher and precise real-time weather conditions, Busch strong season-long performance and the substantial calculated edge mitigate these risks. The 8.19% edge, coupled with a high win probability of 54.7%, underscores the strength of this betting opportunity.

This pick exemplifies a data-driven approach to identify undervalued player props based on consistent performance and favorable environmental factors.

Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases stands out as a high-value proposition, driven by his exceptional recent form, compelling advanced metrics, and a favorable pitching matchup. Bregman has consistently averaged an impressive 2.11 total bases per game across 53 appearances this season, comfortably exceeding the 1.5 line. His robust .546 Slugging Percentage underscores his capability to hit for extra bases, a critical factor for this prop. AI-powered insights into Bregman advanced metrics reveal an expected Batting Average (xBA) of .338, which is notably higher than his current .298 AVG.

This discrepancy suggests strong positive regression potential, indicating that his current performance is sustainable and likely to improve further. His high barrel and hard-hit rates further validate the quality of his contact, pointing to the sustainability of his power numbers and overall offensive output. The matchup against Chicago Cubs probable starter Colin Rea is considered favorable for Bregman. Rea carries a 3.91 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, suggesting he can be hit.

His strikeout rate, with 65 Ks in 96 innings, implies batters often put the ball in play against him, providing more opportunities for Bregman to accumulate total bases rather than striking out. This situational analysis, informed by pitcher tendencies, enhances the confidence in this pick. Playing at Wrigley Field, a known hitter-friendly ballpark, especially susceptible to wind effects, further benefits Bregman. While the specific wind direction for game day is not yet confirmed, Wrigley inherent characteristics generally lend themselves to higher total bases outcomes for power hitters.

Our predictive analytics calculate an exceptional edge of 13.49% for this bet, comparing Bregman estimated true probability of 60% against the implied probability of 46.51% from the +115 odds. This substantial algorithmic edge positions this as a high-confidence wager, despite the minor risks of unconfirmed lineups or precise wind conditions.