Expert MLB Prop Bet Analysis for July 23rd, 2025

Elly De La Cruz presents a compelling case for exceeding 1.5 total bases against the Washington Nationals. His season-long performance, averaging 1.83 total bases per game over 102 appearances, showcases a consistent ability to generate extra-base hits. This prop is significantly bolstered by a highly favorable matchup against Nationals pitcher Michael Soroka. Soroka has struggled this season, marked by a 5.22 ERA and a .287 batting average against switch-hitters, a category in which De La Cruz firmly resides. This specific vulnerability in Sorokas pitching profile directly translates to an increased probability of De La Cruz collecting multiple bases.

Furthermore, De La Cruzs prime batting position, hitting third in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, ensures he will see ample opportunities at the plate. This strategic lineup placement maximizes his exposure to pitches and potential scoring situations. While Nationals Park is considered neutral, De La Cruzs power and hit-generating capabilities are not expected to be negatively impacted by the ballpark dimensions. The overall context of the Reds offense, averaging 4.49 runs per game, provides a supportive environment that should lead to more hittable pitches. The advanced metrics for De La Cruz are also highly encouraging.

His .483 slugging percentage, combined with a respectable 72.6% contact rate, indicates a player who not only possesses power but also reliably puts the ball in play. This combination is crucial for accumulating total bases. The lack of significant adverse line movement suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the advantages present for this prop. Considering the statistical edge, matchup advantage, and players consistent performance, this prop is rated with an exceptional 9/10 value. The risk assessment acknowledges moderate game variance, as any player can have an off day.

However, the substantial statistical edge and the favorable pitching matchup significantly mitigate this risk. The likelihood of De La Cruz exceeding 1.5 total bases is enhanced by his consistent production, his ability to exploit Sorokas specific weaknesses, and his prime spot in a potent lineup.

Cal Raleigh is presented as a prime candidate to hit a home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates, despite the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park. Raleighs season has been a testament to his elite power, evidenced by his impressive 39 home runs in just 82 games. This translates to an average of nearly 0.475 home runs per game, a rate that consistently places him among the leagues top sluggers. The matchup against Quinn Priester, while featuring a pitcher with a respectable 3.33 ERA, is one that Raleighs raw power is expected to challenge. The statistical edge for this prop is substantial.

Raleighs calculated true probability of hitting a home run in any given game is approximately 37.8%. This figure comfortably surpasses the implied probability of 28.1% derived from the +255 odds, creating a significant positive edge of 9.7%. This discrepancy highlights a potential market inefficiency that savvy bettors can exploit. The expected value (EV) for this bet is also highly positive, calculated at +34.19, underscoring its strong profitability potential. Raleighs recent form further bolsters confidence in this prop.

Having hit a home run in his previous game, he appears to be in a rhythm, with his power stroke active and well-tuned. While T-Mobile Park is known to suppress offensive numbers, Raleighs consistent success in generating home runs throughout the season indicates his power is robust enough to overcome such environmental factors. The bet is rated with a high 9.0/10 value due to the strong positive edge and high expected value. The primary risks associated with this prop include the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, which can slightly dampen home run rates, and the inherent volatility of home run bets, which depend on a single event. Additionally, an exceptional performance from Quinn Priester could limit Raleighs opportunities.

Despite these considerations, Raleighs proven power and recent form make this a highly attractive proposition.

Jose Altuve is positioned for a strong offensive performance, making the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop against the Arizona Diamondbacks a highly recommended play. Altuves current form, reflected in his .280 batting average and .466 slugging percentage, provides a solid foundation for accumulating bases. More importantly, his advanced metrics, including an expected Batting Average (xBA) of .331 and a weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .394, suggest that he is hitting the ball with exceptional quality and is due for positive regression. The matchup against Arizonas starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, is particularly advantageous.

Pfaadt has struggled this season, carrying a high 5.94 ERA and demonstrating a propensity to allow hits, especially to right-handed batters. Given that Altuve is a right-handed hitter, this creates a highly favorable individual matchup. The game will be played at Chase Field, a venue renowned for its hitter-friendly environment, which further enhances the probability of Altuve collecting extra-base hits and clearing the 1.5 total bases line. Altuves consistent presence in a prominent spot within the Houston Astros batting order ensures he will receive ample plate appearances.

This high usage rate is crucial for prop bet reliability. The advanced metrics, such as his .331 xBA and 7.3% barrel rate, underscore his ability to consistently make hard contact, translating to a higher likelihood of doubles or even home runs. The estimated true probability for Altuve to achieve over 1.5 total bases is around 50%, which comfortably surpasses the implied probability of 45.45% derived from the +120 odds, indicating a positive analytical edge. The value rating for this prop is a strong 8.5/10, driven by the confluence of strong player metrics, a favorable pitcher matchup, and a hitter-friendly ballpark.

The primary risks involve the inherent unpredictability of a single games outcome, where even strong performers can have an off-night, or the Diamondbacks bullpen could limit late-game opportunities. However, the combination of Altuves underlying performance indicators and the favorable game conditions makes this a high-conviction bet.