Premium MLB Prop Bets - July 28th, 2025 Edition

Cal Raleigh presents a compelling case for exceeding 0.5 home runs in todays matchup against the Oakland Athletics. His consistent power as a catcher, coupled with a favorable hitting environment at Oakland Coliseum, sets the stage for a strong performance. The primary driver for this selection is the advantageous pitcher matchup against JP Sears, who has a documented history of surrendering home runs. Sears reliance on a fastball-heavy approach plays directly into Raleighs strengths as a hitter, creating opportunities for elevated contact.

Raleighs position in the cleanup spot for the Seattle Mariners is another significant factor. This strategic lineup placement guarantees him ample opportunities to bat, with projections suggesting around 4.2 plate appearances. Furthermore, the hitters surrounding him provide crucial protection, often leading to pitchers being more inclined to challenge Raleigh with hittable pitches. As the teams primary catcher, he is also a low substitution risk, ensuring his presence throughout the game.

The environmental factors at Oakland Coliseum are generally considered neutral to slightly positive for right-handed power hitters, offering a slight edge to Raleighs home run aspirations. While specific weather conditions are pending, the stadium dimensions themselves do not present a significant impediment. The calculated win probability of 48.2% significantly exceeds the minimum requirement, and the substantial 10.4% edge indicates that the market may be undervaluing his potential in this specific matchup. Historically, right-handed power hitters have found success against pitchers with similar profiles to JP Sears, and Cal Raleigh has demonstrated a tendency to capitalize on these situations.

His ability to make high-quality contact against fastball-heavy pitchers is a key element in this analysis, making the over 0.5 home runs prop a high-value proposition.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is poised for a strong performance with an opportunity to exceed 1.5 hits in todays contest against the Baltimore Orioles. His season-long batting average of .292, supported by a consistent .396 on-base percentage, underscores his ability to consistently make contact and reach base. This reliability is further bolstered by an 83.3% contact rate, indicating a hitter who rarely misses the sweet spot of the ball. The matchup against Baltimore Orioles pitcher Zach Eflin presents a clear advantage.

Eflins elevated 5.78 ERA and .297 batting average against suggest he has been susceptible to allowing base hits throughout the season. This makes him an ideal opponent for Guerrero Jr., who thrives on making solid contact. Furthermore, Eflins tendency to give up hits plays directly into the prop of accumulating multiple hits. Guerrero Jr.s confirmed position batting third in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup is a critical factor. This prime spot guarantees him a significant number of plate appearances, typically around 4.1 or more per game, providing ample opportunities to achieve the required two hits.

The supporting hitters in the Blue Jays lineup also contribute to a favorable environment, as they can draw walks or get on base, setting up more hittable pitches for Guerrero Jr. Favorable weather conditions, with temperatures around 82°F and light winds, are expected in Baltimore. These conditions are generally conducive to hitting, allowing the ball to travel further. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a neutral ballpark, meaning it does not inherently favor pitchers or hitters, ensuring a level playing field for offensive production. The combination of consistent performance, a favorable matchup, and ideal game conditions strongly supports the over 1.5 hits prop.

Gabby Williams current prop bet for Over 13.5 points presents a challenging proposition based on her recent performance trends. While she is a consistent rotation player for the Charlotte Hornets, seeing between 26 and 33 minutes per game, her scoring has been notably subdued. Over her last five games, Williams has averaged a mere 7.2 points, a significant deviation from her season average of 12.7 points per game.

This recent scoring output is approximately 43% below her season average, a variance that strongly suggests a potential for positive regression to the mean. However, the current line of 13.5 points requires her to significantly outperform her recent stretch. The odds of -105 imply a probability of 51.22% for this bet to succeed, but our analysis indicates a lower estimated true probability of 45.0%, resulting in a negative statistical edge of -6.2%.

While her team, the Seattle Storm, exhibits strong defensive metrics in steals and blocks, the direct impact on Williams scoring opportunities in transition remains speculative without more granular data on the Connecticut Suns defensive schemes against forwards. Her shooting efficiency, at 43.2% from the field and 31.9% from beyond the arc, indicates that she would need a higher volume of attempts or improved efficiency to consistently surpass the 13.5-point mark if these percentages hold. Given the substantial drop in her recent scoring and the negative statistical edge, this bet is not recommended.

The risk of her failing to reach the 13.5-point threshold is considerable, especially when considering that only one of her last five games saw her exceed this line. Without more concrete data on opponent defensive tendencies or a clearer indication of an increased offensive role, the current line appears to be set too high relative to her recent form.