Expert-Grade MLB Prop Selections: September 1st, 2025

Xavier Edwards presents a compelling case for exceeding 0.5 runs scored, largely driven by his consistent ability to get on base and the favorable matchup against the struggling Washington Nationals. His season-long average of 0.567 runs per game over 120 appearances demonstrates a reliable tendency to contribute to the scoreboard.

This consistent output is a direct reflection of his strong .340 on-base percentage, a critical indicator that he frequently finds ways to reach base, whether through hits or walks. The Nationals, currently in a significant slump with an 0-5 record in their last five outings, are showing signs of defensive and pitching vulnerability.

Facing Andrew Alvarez, a pitcher with no prior MLB decisions, further amplifies the offensive potential for the Marlins lineup. An unproven starter often presents opportunities for hitters to capitalize early in games.

Furthermore, the optimal weather conditions at Nationals Park, with a comfortable 77°F and minimal wind, create an environment conducive to offensive production, removing any external factors that might hinder scoring. The -120 odds on FanDuel, while not astronomical, provide a tangible positive edge of 2.2% when considering Edwards robust season-long performance metrics and the exploitable matchup.

Elly De La Cruz represents an exceptional value proposition for the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop, driven by a potent combination of consistent performance and a favorable pitching matchup. De La Cruz has been a force for the Cincinnati Reds, averaging an impressive 1.774 total bases per game across 137 appearances this season. This statistic alone indicates a strong tendency to exceed the 1.5 total bases threshold, as he regularly accumulates extra-base hits or multiple singles.

His .272 batting average and 19 home runs further underscore his power and ability to drive the ball, directly contributing to his high total base output. The matchup against Toronto Blue Jays probable starter Chris Bassitt, who holds a 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, presents an exploitable opportunity. While Bassitt possesses a respectable strikeout rate, De La Cruzs demonstrated ability to hit for power (.453 slugging percentage) positions him well to capitalize on any mistakes.

The estimated true probability of De La Cruz exceeding 1.5 total bases is a robust 70-75%, which significantly outpaces the implied probability of 48.8% derived from the generous +105 odds. This discrepancy translates to an outstanding statistical edge of 21.2-26.2%, signaling a clear undervaluation by the market. The Cincinnati Reds offense, with De La Cruz as a central figure, is designed to generate opportunities for players in his position.

Rhyne Howard is strategically positioned to excel in the three-point category, making the Over 2.5 Threes prop a high-value proposition against the Connecticut Sun. Howard is currently operating at an elite level of shooting form, vividly demonstrated by her remarkable performance of 6 three-pointers in her most recent outing against Dallas. This recent scoring outburst highlights her confidence and her capacity to consistently convert from beyond the arc, building significant momentum heading into this matchup.

The Connecticut Sun present a particularly exploitable defensive matchup, especially concerning perimeter defense, a weakness underscored by their challenging 3-19 record. Howards history of success against less formidable defenses suggests she is well-equipped to thrive in this environment, generating high-quality looks from long range. The Atlanta Dreams secure playoff position allows Howard the freedom to play with an uninhibited offensive approach, enabling her to focus on her scoring strengths without added pressure.

Her consistent role as a primary offensive weapon, coupled with significant minutes averaging 35.3 MPG, guarantees ample opportunities to surpass the 2.5 three-pointer line. The -132 odds offer a compelling positive expected value, supported by robust performance data and a clear advantage in the defensive matchup. There are no identified arena or referee impacts that would negatively influence her three-point shooting performance.