Expert-Grade MLB Prop Selections: September 11th, 2025

Kerry Carpenters Over 1.5 Hits prop presents a compelling opportunity at +320 odds, driven by a confluence of favorable factors. His established .256 batting average provides a solid statistical floor, suggesting a consistent ability to put the ball in play effectively. The matchup against the New York Yankees, particularly with them utilizing a bullpen game starting with Tyler Holton, is a significant advantage. Holton, while a capable reliever, is not typically stretched deep into games, guaranteeing Carpenter multiple at-bats against a variety of relief pitchers.

This increased volume of plate appearances against potentially less dominant arms dramatically elevates his chances of accumulating two hits. The Detroit Tigers offense is also experiencing a hot streak, averaging an impressive 7.6 runs per game over their last seven contests. This offensive momentum creates a more conducive environment for all hitters, including Carpenter, to see better pitches and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Furthermore, Carpenters advanced metrics, such as a 30.7 True Power Rating and a 76% Contact Quality, underscore his ability to consistently make hard contact, which translates to a higher likelihood of hits, including extra-base hits that can contribute to multi-hit games.

The combination of his personal hitting prowess, the favorable game script, and the inherent volatility of bullpen games creates a strong case for this prop. The Yankee Stadium environment is generally known for its hitter-friendly dimensions, offering ample opportunity for extra-base hits. While wind conditions are neutral, the parks layout itself provides a slight advantage for offensive production. Carpenters role in the cleanup spot further solidifies his potential for multiple at-bats and high-leverage situations, increasing the likelihood he will find himself in situations where accumulating hits is more probable.

The overall picture points to a scenario where Carpenter is well-positioned to exceed the 1.5 hit threshold.

Pete Alonsos Over 0.5 RBIs prop at +140 odds is strategically positioned for success, primarily due to a potent combination of his personal hitting prowess and a favorable matchup. Alonso has established himself as one of baseballs premier run producers, consistently averaging an elite 0.774 RBIs per game over 146 games this season, accumulating 113 RBIs. This remarkable consistency makes him a prime candidate to drive in at least one run in any given contest. His .269 batting average and .514 slugging percentage provide a strong foundation, but his performance against left-handed pitching, where his slugging percentage elevates to .532, is particularly relevant here.

The Mets cleanup hitter faces Philadelphia Phillies left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo, who has demonstrated vulnerability, particularly against right-handed hitters. Luzardos 4.00 ERA and .278 batting average allowed to righties create a prime opportunity for Alonso to capitalize. Furthermore, Citizens Bank Park is renowned for its hitter-friendly dimensions, offering a significant +15% boost to home run probability. This park factor directly benefits Alonso, who already possesses substantial power, evidenced by his 33 home runs this season.

The synergy between Alonsos power, his comfort against lefties, and a park that rewards extra-base hits creates a high-probability scenario for an RBI. Alonsos batting order position as the cleanup hitter is crucial. He is consistently placed behind strong on-base threats, with the Mets leadoff hitters boasting a .333 On-Base Percentage. This means Alonso frequently steps to the plate with runners in scoring position, maximizing his opportunities to add to his RBI total.

His advanced metrics, including a .424 xwOBA and a 9.7% Barrel Rate, further confirm his elite contact quality and sustained power, underpinning his ability to consistently drive in runs. The confluence of these factors makes this prop a highly attractive betting proposition.

Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown prop against the Washington Commanders presents a compelling opportunity at -215 odds, driven by a dominant role in the Packers red zone offense and a historically weak opposing run defense. Jacobs commands an overwhelming 92% of the Packers red zone carries for running backs this season, establishing him as the unquestioned primary scoring option near the goal line. This usage pattern is further reinforced by his handling of 91% of all goal-line work, leaving little doubt about his involvement when Green Bay is in scoring position. The Packers offensive efficiency, marked by a 63% red zone touchdown rate last season, consistently provides Jacobs with premium scoring chances. The matchup against the Washington Commanders is particularly advantageous.

Their run defense struggled significantly in 2024, allowing an average of 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, ranking them among the leagues worst. This vulnerability is further highlighted by their 28th ranking in EPA/rush defense (-0.08) and a Run Defense DVOA of 4.3%, confirming their struggles against the ground game. Specifically, linebacker Jamin Davis has shown deficiencies in gap assignments, allowing an exploitable 5.1 yards per carry, an area where Jacobs excels. His ability to gain 4.7 yards per carry against 4-3 defensive schemes, like Washingtons, underscores his effectiveness in exploiting such weaknesses. Furthermore, the projected game script favors a strong rushing attack for the Packers.

As 3.5-point favorites, they are expected to maintain a positive game flow conducive to running the ball. Offensive coordinator tendencies also point towards a run-heavy approach, with the Packers ranking second in 21 personnel usage and adjusting to a 38% run rate when operating in opponent territory. With an estimated 3.5 drives inside the 20-yard line, Jacobs is poised for multiple opportunities to find the end zone. The injury status of TE Luke Musgrave, who vacates 12% of red zone targets, is also a positive indicator, as historically, 65% of such vacated targets are redistributed to running backs, directly benefiting Jacobs. The combination of his elite usage, a porous opposing defense, and favorable game and coaching tendencies makes this a high-confidence selection.