MLB Player Props Deep Dive - September 18th, 2025

Michael Busch enters this matchup with the Cincinnati Reds in exceptional form, demonstrating consistent power that makes the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop a compelling selection. His .496 slugging percentage and 55 extra-base hits across 145 games highlight a hitter who consistently finds ways to drive the ball for extra bases. This is further amplified by his role in the cleanup spot, ensuring he will see crucial at-bats in high-leverage situations throughout the game. The Cubs strong 5-game road win streak and overall 88-64 record indicate a team playing with significant momentum, and Busch is a key contributor to that success. The matchup against Cincinnatis Hunter Greene, who despite a respectable ERA, has allowed 116 hits in just 116.2 innings, presents an opportunity for Busch to make solid contact.

Greenes tendency to allow baserunners creates a scenario where Busch can capitalize on mistakes. Furthermore, the Great American Ball Park is renowned for its hitter-friendly dimensions, a factor that significantly boosts the potential for extra-base hits for power-oriented hitters like Busch, who has already amassed 29 home runs this season. This combination of Buschs inherent power, a susceptible pitcher, and a favorable ballpark sets a strong stage for him to accumulate total bases. Buschs advanced metrics further solidify this selection. His elite True Power Rating of 28.9 and a contact quality score of 18.5 are indicative of his ability to generate hard contact consistently.

The projected positive regression suggested by his xwOBA exceeding his wOBA implies that his current performance may even be an understatement of his true capabilities. The low variance associated with total bases props, compared to home runs or multi-hit bets, adds a layer of stability to this prediction. The Cubs overall team strength and their current winning streak contribute to a confident outlook for Busch to perform well in this competitive environment. From a situational standpoint, the Cubs are a motivated team with a secured postseason berth, and they are facing a Reds team that is battling to stay above .500. This suggests a competitive game where high-leverage at-bats will be present for key players like Busch.

His consistent performance and ability to hit for power make him a prime candidate to exceed 1.5 total bases, especially given the favorable conditions. The markets undervaluation of Buschs true probability at +106 odds creates a significant betting edge, making this an analytically sound choice.

Aaron Judge presents a compelling case for the Over 3.5 Total Bases prop against the Baltimore Orioles, driven by his elite power metrics and a remarkably favorable historical matchup against the starting pitcher, Cade Povich. Judges season-long .679 slugging percentage is among the best in baseball, a testament to his ability to consistently drive the ball for extra bases. This season, he has already amassed 48 home runs, showcasing his immense power potential in any given at-bat. The historical data against Cade Povich is particularly striking. Judge is a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime against Povich, with both hits being home runs.

This dominant track record against the opposing pitcher strongly suggests a significant matchup advantage. Furthermore, Judge has demonstrated consistent success against the Orioles as a team, clearing 1.5 total bases in 10 of his last 13 games against them. This trend indicates he is particularly dialed in when facing this division rival. Cade Povichs pitching profile further tilts the scales in Judges favor. With a 5.05 ERA and a tendency to surrender home runs (17 in 101 innings), Povich has shown vulnerability to power hitters.

Judge, with his exceptional slugging ability, is precisely the type of hitter who can exploit these weaknesses. Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while having standard dimensions, does not present any significant deterrents to Judges power-hitting capabilities, especially with no significant weather concerns anticipated. The markets implied probability of 40% from the +150 odds, compared to Judges projected 47% win probability, reveals a substantial 7% edge. This indicates that the betting market is not fully accounting for Judges elite performance metrics and his historical dominance in this specific matchup. His consistent performance against the Orioles and his proven ability to hit for power against pitchers like Povich make this Over 3.5 Total Bases prop a high-confidence play with significant positive expected value.