Expert MLB Prop Bet Analysis for September 24th, 2025

Pete Alonso presents a compelling case for the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop, driven by his consistent power hitting and a highly exploitable matchup against Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd. Alonsos season-long .523 slugging percentage is a testament to his ability to generate extra-base hits, translating to an average of 2.09 total bases per game over a substantial sample size. This underlying power profile strongly suggests he will exceed the 1.5 total base threshold.

Matthew Boyd has been demonstrably vulnerable in his recent starts, evidenced by a concerning 5.77 ERA over his last eight outings. This elevated ERA indicates a propensity for allowing hard contact and extra-base hits, precisely the type of outcome Alonso excels at producing. The matchup is therefore heavily skewed in Alonsos favor, offering him a prime opportunity to exploit Boyds current struggles.

Furthermore, the betting markets implied probability of 44.4% for Alonso to achieve two or more total bases, based on the +125 odds, starkly contrasts with his statistical reality. His established performance indicates a significantly higher probability, creating a notable 17.3% edge for bettors. This discrepancy underscores the value present in this prop, especially considering Alonsos consistent season-long power, marked by 37 home runs.

Ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field, with temperatures around 68°F and minimal wind, further enhance the prospects for extra-base hits. Combined with Alonsos strategic placement as the cleanup hitter, maximizing his plate appearances in crucial situations, and the high-stakes nature of this late-season game, all indicators point towards a strong performance.

Griffin Conine stands out as an exceptional value play on the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop, primarily due to his impressive power metrics and the generous +250 odds offered. His professional .464 slugging percentage, accumulated over 69 at-bats in 21 games, demonstrates a potent ability to drive the ball and generate extra-base hits. This slugging prowess translates to a statistically strong probability of exceeding 1.5 total bases in any given contest. The market odds from FanDuel present a significant inefficiency, implying only a 28.6% chance of Conine achieving this prop.

However, his underlying statistics, including an elite 21.7 True Power Rating and a notable 2 home runs and 7 doubles in his limited but impactful sample, suggest a much higher probability of success. This discrepancy creates a substantial 23.5% edge, making this a highly attractive betting proposition. Conine faces Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo, who has posted a 4.08 ERA this season. While Luzardo is a capable pitcher, his ERA suggests he is not an insurmountable obstacle for a hitter with Conines power potential.

This matchup is considered favorable and contributes positively to Conines win probability for the Over 1.5 Total Bases. Furthermore, Citizens Bank Park offers a neutral to slightly hitter-friendly environment, which is conducive to offensive production and the generation of extra-base hits. These combined factors—Conines demonstrated power, the exploitable pitching matchup, and the favorable ballpark—solidify the high value of this prop. The prop also generates an outstanding expected value of +0.82, marking it as a highly profitable long-term investment.

Shohei Ohtanis Over 1.5 Total Bases prop is a strong play, underpinned by his status as an elite hitter and a confluence of favorable environmental factors at Chase Field. Ohtani possesses a rare combination of exceptional power and contact ability, making him consistently likely to achieve at least 1.5 total bases in any given game. His foundational skills and consistent placement at the top of the Dodgers potent lineup ensure ample opportunities for him to rack up hits and extra-base hits. The hitter-friendly nature of Chase Field, amplified by its altitude of 1,100 feet, significantly boosts ball carry, adding an estimated 3% to batted ball distance.

This effect is further exacerbated by the hot weather conditions, with temperatures expected around 101°F, as warmer air also contributes to balls traveling farther. These environmental advantages create a perfect storm for hitters looking to generate extra-base hits and accumulate total bases. The market odds of -124 imply a probability of 55.36% for Ohtani to achieve this prop. However, considering his elite hitting capabilities, the hitter-friendly ballpark, and the warm weather, his true probability is considerably higher.

This gap translates to a significant 9.64% edge and a projected 82.4% return on investment, indicating a substantial market inefficiency. Ohtani also benefits from a platoon advantage against right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson, historically performing stronger against righties. Nelson, while solid with a 3.34 ERA, is not an insurmountable challenge for a hitter of Ohtanis caliber. Ohtanis consistent placement in the Dodgers powerful lineup (Team Strength Rating of 60.8/100) guarantees maximum plate appearances, further solidifying the rationale for this prop.