Value MLB Prop Bets: September 27th, 2025 Opportunities

Ernie Clement presents a compelling case for the Over 0.5 Runs Scored prop, particularly at the generous +155 odds. His season-long performance, marked by 79 runs in 155 games and a solid .273 batting average, establishes a robust baseline for his scoring potential.

The Toronto Blue Jays are currently riding a 2-game winning streak, injecting positive team momentum that often translates to increased offensive output. Playing at home in Rogers Centre, a neutral ballpark that doesnt hinder offense, further solidifies his prospects.

The matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who allow an average of 4.08 runs per game, suggests an environment where scoring opportunities are likely to arise. While Clements batting order position is unconfirmed, his consistent season-long performance indicates he will be placed in a role to contribute to run scoring.

His exceptional 88.9% contact rate is a critical factor, ensuring he consistently puts the ball in play and creates opportunities to reach base, which is the prerequisite for scoring runs. The combination of his individual consistency, team momentum, and a favorable opponent sets the stage for Clement to cross the plate.

Mookie Betts is positioned for a highly probable Over 0.5 Hits outcome against the Seattle Mariners, despite the -220 odds reflecting this confidence. His season batting average of .262, coupled with an expected batting average of .324, signals a strong potential for positive regression and consistent hitting.

Betts elite 88.5% contact rate is a cornerstone of this bet, guaranteeing he consistently puts the ball in play and significantly increases his chances of securing at least one hit. Typically seeing 4-5 at-bats per game, he has ample opportunities to achieve this single-hit threshold.

The matchup against Logan Gilbert, while a respectable pitcher with a 3.43 ERA, presents exploitable opportunities for a hitter of Betts caliber. Gilberts strikeout numbers are notable, but Betts high contact rate effectively mitigates the risk of being overpowered.

T-Mobile Park, being a covered stadium, neutralizes any weather concerns, providing consistent hitting conditions. Betts consistent placement in the leadoff or second spot in the Dodgers potent lineup ensures maximum plate appearances and optimal hitting situations, often with runners on base, further amplifying his hit potential.

Byron Buxton emerges as a premier value play for the Over 0.5 RBIs prop at +165 odds, driven by his exceptional RBI production rate of 0.656 per game (82 RBIs in 125 games). This rate significantly outpaces the implied probability of the sportsbook, presenting a substantial edge.

Buxtons elite power is a key driver, evidenced by 34 home runs and a robust .547 SLG, consistently placing him in high-leverage RBI situations within the Twins lineup. The matchup against Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Ranger Suarez, while generally solid, presents specific vulnerabilities that Buxton is well-equipped to exploit, further enhancing his RBI potential.

Citizens Bank Park offers a neutral-to-slight hitter-friendly environment, providing a marginal positive adjustment to RBI opportunities. Buxtons consistent placement in the middle of the Twins batting order is crucial, as it ensures he frequently comes to the plate with runners in scoring position.

While the Twins are underdogs, this can lead to varied game scripts where Buxton still finds himself in crucial run-scoring situations. His contact rate of 69.8%, combined with his power, ensures high-quality contact that often translates into RBIs, and his efficiency in capitalizing with runners on base is well-documented.