Expert-Grade MLB & NFL Prop Selections: August 15th, 2025

Pete Crow-Armstrong presents a compelling opportunity for an RBI on August 15th, driven by a confluence of recent performance and favorable situational factors. His batting average has been strong, hitting .285 over his last ten games, a testament to his current offensive rhythm. This offensive surge has translated into tangible production, with Crow-Armstrong averaging 0.6 RBIs per game in his last five appearances, indicating a consistent ability to drive in runs.

The matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates is particularly enticing, as their bullpen has shown a tendency to falter in high-leverage situations, evidenced by a collective 4.80 ERA. This vulnerability offers Crow-Armstrong a prime opportunity to capitalize, especially in later innings. Furthermore, the hitter-friendly environment at Wrigley Field, known for its short porches and conducive conditions for left-handed hitters, enhances his potential for extra-base hits and, consequently, RBI opportunities.

His recent performance, contributing five RBIs over his last seven games, underscores his capacity to deliver in clutch situations. The underlying data supports this projection, with a robust 67% win probability and a significant 25.3% edge on the Over 0.5 RBI prop. This statistical validation, coupled with a 9/10 Value Rating, highlights the attractive return on investment for this selection.

Crow-Armstrongs demonstrated ability to hit in crucial spots, as seen in his recent RBI production, positions him well to exploit the Pirates bullpen weaknesses. The combination of his personal form, the specific matchup dynamics, and the favorable ballpark conditions creates a scenario where achieving at least one RBI is a highly probable outcome.

Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out as a premier value play for an Anytime Touchdown prop on August 15th, 2025. His established role as the Detroit Lions undisputed number one receiver positions him as a focal point of the offense, consistently commanding a significant target share. This inherent volume, coupled with his proven efficiency in the red zone, makes him a primary scoring threat. The potential impact of Sam LaPortas undisclosed injury cannot be overstated; a limited LaPorta would likely funnel even more targets towards St.

Brown, particularly in crucial scoring areas. This scenario directly increases his touchdown probability. The matchup against the Green Bay Packers presents a favorable environment for St. Brown. The Packers secondary may be compromised by injuries to key defensive backs, including the questionable statuses of Nate Hobbs (knee) and Xavier McKinney (calf).

Such absences would significantly weaken their pass defense, creating more favorable matchups for St. Brown on the perimeter and in the slot. His consistent high snap count, projected at approximately 90%, ensures he will be on the field for the vast majority of offensive plays, regardless of game flow. This consistent involvement guarantees opportunities to find the end zone. The projected 50% probability of scoring a touchdown, yielding a 7.5% edge against the implied odds, underscores the significant value present in this prop.

Isiah Pacheco emerges as a prime candidate for an Anytime Touchdown on August 15th, 2025, largely due to his established red zone role and a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers run defense. Pacheco concluded the 2024 season with exceptional scoring efficiency, notching 11 rushing touchdowns in his final 10 games, averaging an impressive 1.1 scores per contest. His red zone efficiency is further underscored by a 4.3 yards per carry (YPC) inside the 20-yard line in 2024, significantly outperforming the league average for running backs. This trend of increasing touchdown production throughout the season indicates growing trust in his ability to convert near the goal line. The Chargers defense presents a exploitable matchup, particularly against the run.

Last season, they allowed a significant 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game, ranking them fifth worst in the league. Their defensive front surrendered an average of 4.9 YPC up the middle, which aligns perfectly with Pachecos preferred rushing lanes. Furthermore, the Chargers run defense DVOA of 12% ranked 24th, and their allowing of 0.08 EPA/Rush placed them 24th, signaling clear vulnerabilities. Pacheco is projected to command a substantial 65% of the Chiefs critical goal-line carries, building on his dominant 68% red zone share from 2024. The game being played indoors at SoFi Stadium eliminates weather variables, ensuring optimal offensive execution.

The current +130 odds imply a 43.5% probability, which is significantly undervalued against a projected 50% win likelihood, creating a substantial edge. Kansas Citys offensive scheme also favors Pacheco. As road favorites, they are expected to maintain a positive game script, which inherently supports a higher volume of rushing attempts. The Chiefs red zone play-calling has historically shown a balanced approach, and their commitment to the run in scoring situations is expected to continue. Pachecos historical performance against the Chargers is also noteworthy, having scored 3 touchdowns in his last two matchups against them, averaging an impressive 1.5 TDs per game in these contests.

His base snap count averaged 72% in 2024, projected to increase to 78% due to the anticipated positive game script, ensuring consistent involvement and ample opportunities to find the end zone.