Professional NFL & MLB Prop Bet Breakdown: October 3rd, 2025

Dak Prescott is positioned for a significant passing yardage total against the New York Jets, driven by his current elite form and the Jets defensive vulnerabilities. Prescott is already demonstrating a high floor and ceiling, having amassed 1,119 passing yards and two games exceeding 300 yards.

His exceptional 72.9% completion rate ensures that his high volume of attempts translates directly into tangible yardage. The matchup against the Jets is particularly enticing, as their pass defense has shown a consistent inability to limit yards per attempt, creating a clear advantage for Dallass aggressive downfield passing attack.

The projected game script further bolsters this outlook; the Cowboys are expected to lean heavily on the air game to exploit the Jets weaknesses, and the low probability of a blowout ensures Prescott will remain a primary offensive focus throughout the contest. The offensive lines strength in pass protection will provide Prescott with the necessary time to operate and find open receivers, crucial for exceeding this yardage prop.

Dallas Goedert presents a compelling case for exceeding 50.5 receiving yards, primarily due to his remarkable efficiency and a highly favorable matchup against the Denver Broncos. Despite not always commanding a massive target share, Goedert consistently maximizes his opportunities, averaging an elite 3.45 fantasy points per target.

This efficiency is crucial for a prop based on raw yardage. The Broncos defense has demonstrated a clear vulnerability against tight ends, having allowed at least 10 fantasy points to the position in two of their last three games.

This suggests a specific weakness that the Eagles can exploit. Furthermore, Goederts role in the Eagles offense is secure, with projections indicating he will be on the field for nearly every offensive snap (96.8% snap share).

The projected pass-heavy game script for the Eagles, coupled with the low probability of a blowout, ensures that Goedert will have ample opportunities to accumulate the necessary yardage. His recent performance, including a season-high 19.7 fantasy points in Week 4, indicates he is trending in the right direction.

Shohei Ohtanis prop for Over 0.5 Hits, despite the steep -260 odds, represents a high-confidence play rooted in his exceptional offensive consistency and his unique role as a two-way player. Ohtani consistently hits for average, historically maintaining a .300+ batting average, which inherently provides a strong baseline probability of securing at least one hit in any given game.

The critical factor here is his guaranteed plate appearances. As a starting pitcher, Ohtani remains in the lineup for the entire game, eliminating the risk of being pinch-hit for or removed early, which can plague other hitters.

This ensures maximum opportunities to reach base. The implied probability of 72.2% at -260 is demonstrably lower than Ohtanis true probability of hitting, estimated at 75.0%, creating a valuable edge of 2.8%.

His advanced metrics, such as expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG), consistently support his high-contact approach and quality of contact, indicating that his current performance is sustainable and not indicative of regression. The lack of significant injuries or lineup disruptions further solidifies his ability to perform at his peak.