Featured NFL & MLB Player Props - September 3rd, 2025

James Conner presents a compelling case for an Anytime Touchdown prop at -155. His established role as the Cardinals primary back, particularly in the red zone, is a significant driver of this confidence. Conner commands an impressive 75% of the teams red zone carries, demonstrating his critical importance in scoring situations. Last season, he converted at a 25% rate inside the 5-yard line, underscoring his efficiency near the goal line.

The matchup against the Saints defense is also favorable. New Orleans allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry and 19 rushing touchdowns last season, ranking them 18th in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed. This indicates a defense susceptible to ground attacks, especially in short-yardage and red zone scenarios where Conner excels. The Cardinals are projected to be 6.5-point favorites, which strongly suggests a positive game script where they will likely lean on their run game to control the clock and maintain a lead.

This projected game script, with an estimated 55% run play percentage, further enhances Conners touchdown-scoring prospects. Furthermore, Conners historical performance against the Saints, including 3 career touchdowns, adds another layer of confidence. His ability to perform well when his team is favored, averaging 4.3 yards per carry in those situations, aligns perfectly with the current game outlook. The absence of weather concerns, with the game played indoors, ensures consistent offensive execution, allowing the Cardinals to fully leverage their offensive strengths.

The market sentiment, indicated by line movement from -155 to -170 before settling back, suggests increasing conviction in Conner finding the end zone.

Bijan Robinson is positioned as a premier offensive weapon for the Atlanta Falcons, making his Anytime Touchdown prop at -190 a high-conviction play. Robinson is the undisputed focal point of the Falcons offense, consistently commanding a significant workload in both the rushing and passing game. This dual-threat capability inherently increases his touchdown upside, as he can exploit defensive weaknesses through various avenues.

While specific game script details are not provided due to the absence of a spread, the expectation is for Robinson to be heavily involved regardless of the games flow. His talent level and integral role in the Falcons scheme suggest he will be a primary red zone option. The -190 odds carry an implied probability of 65.5%, reflecting a market that already recognizes Robinsons scoring potential.

Our projection places his actual scoring probability at a higher 70%, yielding a notable 6.9% edge that makes this a mathematically sound wager. The potential absence of WR Darnell Mooney could marginally increase Robinsons target share in the passing game, further bolstering his touchdown prospects. Even without Mooney, Robinsons foundational role in the offense remains secure, ensuring he will receive ample opportunities to find the end zone.

The game being played in a domed venue eliminates weather as a factor, guaranteeing optimal conditions for offensive execution and consistent usage for Robinson.

Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves presents an exceptional value proposition on the Over 0.5 RBI prop at +180 odds. His consistent offensive production throughout the season, evidenced by 62 RBI across 139 games, forms a strong statistical foundation for this wager. Albies is a key component of the Braves potent lineup, consistently batting in a position to drive in runs.

The true probability of Albies achieving Over 0.5 RBI is estimated at a robust 46.6%, which is significantly higher than the implied market probability of 35.7% derived from the +180 odds. This substantial 10.9% edge indicates a clear market inefficiency and a strong opportunity for value-seeking bettors. The prop earns a high value rating of 8/10, reflecting the analytical confidence in this selection.

His calculated Kelly Criterion of 10.9% further underscores the aggressive nature of this investment opportunity. Albies average of approximately 0.45 RBI per game over his 139 appearances highlights his consistent ability to contribute offensively in this specific category. Playing in a domed stadium for this matchup eliminates weather concerns, ensuring optimal conditions for offensive production.

While the specific opposing pitcher and team details are not provided, Albies consistent performance in a strong lineup against various pitching staffs makes him a reliable candidate to record at least one RBI.