Todays NFL & MLB Prop Betting Edge - September 11th, 2025

Josh Jacobs stands out as a premier anytime touchdown option due to a confluence of usage, matchup vulnerability, and offensive efficiency. His commanding 92% share of the Packers red zone carries this season is a clear indicator of his role as the primary scoring threat near the end zone. This volume is particularly potent when facing a Washington Commanders defense that has historically struggled against the run, evidenced by their allowance of 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs in 2024, ranking them among the leagues worst. The Packers offense, meanwhile, boasts a highly efficient 63% red zone touchdown rate, consistently creating high-quality scoring opportunities for their ball carriers. Jacobs himself demonstrates remarkable efficiency, averaging 4.7 yards per carry against 4-3 defensive schemes, which aligns perfectly with Washingtons defensive structure.

His ability to break tackles, highlighted by an 87.3 PFF Elusive Rating, further bolsters his scoring prospects in close-quarters situations. The projected game script further solidifies this pick. With the Packers favored by 3.5 points, a positive game flow is anticipated, encouraging a robust run game. The Packers are expected to run between 28-32 times, with a projected run rate of 58% in neutral situations. Green Bays offensive line health has also improved, correlating with Jacobs upward trending touchdown production.

Furthermore, the potential absence of TE Luke Musgrave could funnel additional red zone targets and opportunities towards the running game, with historical data suggesting 65% of such vacated targets redistribute to RBs. Coaching tendencies also favor this play, as the Packers consistently utilize 21 personnel and increase their run rate to 38% in opponent territory, prioritizing the ground game when scoring is imminent. Jacobs historical performance against Washington is also noteworthy, with a 66% touchdown rate in head-to-head matchups, surpassing his career average. His home form is equally impressive, averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game when the Packers are favored by three or more points at home. The snap count trends are overwhelmingly positive, with Jacobs projected for 68-71% of offensive snaps, including 22-25 carries and 3 crucial red zone opportunities.

His dominance in goal-line work (91%) and carries within the red zone (92%) makes him the undisputed focal point when the Packers are on the doorstep of the end zone. The line movement from -190 to -215, coupled with strong sharp money indicators on the Yes side, signals professional conviction in his scoring potential.

Jayden Daniels classification as a dual-threat quarterback is the cornerstone of this Under bet on his passing attempts. His inherent ability to impact the game with his legs naturally leads to a more balanced offensive attack, reducing the reliance on sheer passing volume. Washingtons offensive strategy is expected to leverage this skillset, incorporating designed runs and scrambles that eat clock and limit the number of throws Daniels needs to make. This approach is particularly effective against a Green Bay Packers defense that, while generally solid, can be stretched by dynamic quarterbacks who can create plays outside the pocket.

The projected game script for this matchup further supports the Under. Both teams are 1-0, suggesting a competitive contest rather than a blowout scenario that might force one team into a desperate pass-heavy comeback attempt. The expectation is for a balanced offensive approach from Washington, aiming to control the tempo and keep the ball away from the Packers offense. This balanced attack, driven by Daniels dual-threat capabilities, naturally caps the upper limit of his passing attempts.

While specific historical data against the Packers isnt available, Daniels playing style and the Commanders offensive philosophy are strong indicators of a controlled passing game. Furthermore, the absence of extreme weather conditions at Lambeau Field ensures a standard game flow, which typically favors a balanced offensive strategy over a forced pass-heavy or run-heavy script. The -102 odds for the Under present an excellent value proposition, as the market appears to price this as a near coin-flip, while our analysis suggests a higher probability for the Under. The Commanders offensive design, coupled with Daniels proficiency as a runner, creates a scenario where he will likely achieve his yardage and scoring contributions through a combination of both passing and rushing, rather than solely relying on a high volume of passes.

Pete Alonsos Over 0.5 RBIs prop presents a compelling opportunity, anchored by his consistent run-producing prowess and a favorable matchup against a vulnerable left-handed pitcher in a hitter-friendly environment. Alonsos season average of 0.774 RBIs per game, accumulating 113 RBIs over 146 games, underscores his reliability in driving in runs. This strong baseline is further enhanced by his .269 batting average and a robust .514 slugging percentage, indicative of his consistent ability to generate extra-base hits, which are crucial for RBI opportunities. The specific pitching matchup against Jesus Luzardo, a left-handed pitcher, is particularly advantageous for Alonso.

Luzardos 4.00 ERA and .278 batting average allowed to right-handed hitters create a prime scenario for Alonso to capitalize. Furthermore, Alonsos slugging percentage against lefties elevates to .532, showcasing his ability to inflict damage against southpaws. This platoon advantage, combined with his consistent performance, positions him well to knock in runs. The game being played at Citizens Bank Park, which offers a significant 15% boost to home run probability, further amplifies Alonsos potential for extra-base hits and subsequent RBIs.

Alonsos role in the batting order is also a critical factor. Hitting cleanup for the New York Mets ensures he consistently comes to the plate with runners in scoring position, especially given the .333 On-Base Percentage of the Mets leadoff hitters. This setup maximizes his chances to drive in runs. Advanced metrics further support his offensive capabilities, with a .424 xwOBA and a 9.7% Barrel Rate indicating high-quality contact and sustained power.

While low wind conditions might marginally reduce the likelihood of extreme extra-base hits, Alonsos inherent power and consistent RBI production make the Over 0.5 RBIs a strong value play at +140 odds.