Todays NFL & MLB Prop Betting Edge - September 12th, 2025

Caleb Williams presents a compelling opportunity for an Anytime Touchdown prop at +440 odds. His inherent mobility as a quarterback is a significant factor that often translates into rushing touchdown opportunities, particularly within the red zone or on designed quarterback runs.

As the undisputed starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears, Williams commands 100% of the offensive snaps and passing opportunities, ensuring maximum involvement in every offensive sequence. The projected game script, with the Bears as 6.5-point underdogs against the Detroit Lions, suggests they may be forced to pass more frequently, especially if they fall behind.

This increased passing volume, coupled with his ability to extend plays with his legs, elevates his chances of finding the end zone. While early season data is limited, Williams unique skillset against the Lions defensive front creates potential scrambling lanes and additional rushing upside that the numbers might not fully capture.

This bet is rooted in his dual-threat capabilities and the attractive odds, offering a significant analytical edge.

Junior Camineros power potential makes the Over 0.5 Home Runs prop at +340 odds a standout play. His professional track record is impressive, boasting 42 home runs in just 140 games, which translates to a remarkable raw home run rate of 30.0%. This indicates a consistent ability to drive the ball with authority.

The matchup against Shane Baz, who has struggled with home run prevention (1.51 HR/9) and carries a high ERA, presents a vulnerable pitching target. Bazs elevated BABIP also suggests he may be due for negative regression, potentially leading to more hittable pitches. Compounding these factors is the venue: Wrigley Field, a notorious hitters park that boosts right-handed power by 8%.

The prevailing Northeast wind further aids hitters by pushing balls towards the left-center power alley. Camineros placement in the cleanup spot guarantees him at least four plate appearances, maximizing his opportunities against Baz and any subsequent pitchers. His elite True Power Rating and barrel rate confirm that his power is sustainable and not merely a product of luck.

The combination of his personal power profile, a struggling pitcher, a hitter-friendly ballpark, and favorable weather conditions creates a high-probability scenario for a home run.

J.K. Dobbins presents a valuable opportunity on the Over 1.5 Receptions prop at +118 odds.

While he operates as the secondary running back behind Jonathan Taylor, his role within modern NFL offenses typically includes significant involvement in the passing game. The modest line of 1.5 receptions is highly attainable, as Dobbins is expected to be utilized in check-down situations, screen passes, and potentially as a safety valve against pressure.

The markets fluctuation in lines for Dobbins receptions, ranging from -158 to +118, signals a pricing inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit, with +118 offering clear value. Playing indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium eliminates any weather-related concerns, ensuring a consistent offensive game plan that can leverage Dobbins receiving abilities.

Despite limited Week 1 data, his projected snap count and role as a change-of-pace back with established passing game involvement confidently support the Over. Typical running back usage in short-yardage and check-down scenarios often results in at least two targets and receptions, making this a calculated play based on expected opportunity.