Expert-Grade NFL & MLB Prop Selections: September 22nd, 2025

Lamar Jacksons Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns prop is positioned for success, leveraging the Baltimore Ravens status as significant home favorites in a game projected for high scoring (53.5 total). Jackson, as the undisputed leader of the Ravens offense, commands 100% of passing opportunities and is expected to be on the field for virtually every offensive snap (95-100%). This level of involvement, especially in a scenario where Baltimore is expected to control the game script, creates numerous avenues for touchdown passes. The anticipated game script heavily favors the Ravens, who are 4.5-point favorites.

This suggests sustained offensive drives, particularly in the red zone, where Jacksons dual-threat ability can be utilized effectively. While theres a moderate risk of a blowout (estimated at 25%), Jacksons integral role in the offense means he is likely to achieve two passing touchdowns before any significant reduction in pass attempts due to a large lead. Despite limited specific data on the Lions pass defense metrics against quarterbacks, Jacksons unique skill set consistently poses challenges for opposing defenses. His ability to extend plays with his legs and find receivers downfield makes him a constant threat.

The Ravens offensive scheme is designed to maximize his impact, and a high game total further amplifies the potential for offensive scoring. The value proposition for this bet is substantial. With a projected 70% win probability, it presents a 6.2% edge over the implied probability of 63.8% at -176 odds. This calculated advantage, combined with Jacksons consistent ability to find the end zone through the air, makes this a confident selection.

Jahmyr Gibbs stands out as a premier Anytime Touchdown selection due to his dominant role in the Detroit Lions red zone offense and a highly favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Gibbs commands an impressive 68% of the Lions red zone carries, averaging approximately three goal-line touches per game. This consistent high-leverage usage positions him as the primary threat to find the end zone whenever Detroit enters scoring territory. The matchup against the Cleveland Browns defense is particularly appealing.

The Browns are ranked among the bottom five in the NFL for rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs, conceding an average of 1.2 per game. Furthermore, their defense struggles between the tackles, allowing a 4.3 YPC, which directly aligns with Gibbs most effective run-blocking schemes. The Lions offensive line also holds a significant advantage in trench play over Clevelands defensive front, creating a clear pathway for Gibbs to gain yardage and score. Adding to the favorable outlook is the game environment.

Playing in a dome eliminates weather concerns and historically leads to increased scoring. The Lions are projected to have ample opportunities for red zone trips, exceeding their season average, and a significant majority of their touchdowns are generated via the run. Even with a potential for a blowout, Gibbs is projected to see an increase in carries during late-game leads, further enhancing his touchdown potential. The value proposition for this bet is robust.

With a projected 67% touchdown probability, it offers a +2.1% edge over the implied 64.9% probability derived from the -185 odds. Gibbs elite efficiency inside the 10-yard line (4.1 YPC, 3rd best) and his high conversion rate on goal-line attempts solidify the confidence in this selection.

Justin Verlanders Over 4.5 Strikeouts prop presents a compelling opportunity, underpinned by his elite strikeout rate and a highly advantageous matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Verlander boasts a professional K/9 of 9.6, a metric that places him in the top 15% of MLB starters over his 65.1 innings pitched this season. This strong foundational performance directly translates to a projected strikeout total exceeding 5.45 over his typical outing of approximately 5.1 innings.

His recent form further bolsters this projection. In his last 31 innings pitched, Verlander has recorded an impressive 28 strikeouts, demonstrating a significant surge in dominance and a high level of command. This elevated performance aligns perfectly with the matchup against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that struggles mightily against right-handed pitching, posting a 23.8% strikeout rate, which ranks as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball.

Key hitters in the Cardinals middle of the order, known for their whiff-prone swings, present prime strikeout opportunities. Ballpark factors at Oracle Park are also conducive to Verlanders success. While considered neutral for strikeouts, its spacious outfield can convert fly balls into outs, allowing pitchers to work deeper into counts and accumulate more punchouts. The cool, 62°F evening weather further enhances pitcher grip and control, creating optimal conditions for sustained strikeout potential.

The value proposition is significant, with a projected 68% win probability for this Over prop, translating to a substantial +8.7% edge against the implied probability of 59.3% derived from the -146 odds. Verlanders advanced metrics, including a 1.07 K/IP rate, and a projected K/9 from MySportsFeeds of 12.6, suggest considerable upside beyond his current performance.