Expert-Grade NFL & MLB Prop Selections: September 25th, 2025 Picks

J.K. Dobbins is positioned for a substantial rushing performance against the Cincinnati Bengals. His consistent workload is undeniable, commanding an impressive 72.1% share of the Broncos running back carries. This volume is crucial for exceeding his yardage prop, especially given his recent form. Over his last three contests, Dobbins has averaged a robust 68.3 rushing yards per game, consistently clearing the 64.5-yard threshold.

His efficiency has also been on an upward trend, with a +7% improvement in yards per carry since Week 1, demonstrating his ability to gain significant yardage on each touch. The matchup against the Bengals run defense is particularly enticing. Cincinnati ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run and shows a notable vulnerability in second halves, allowing an elevated 4.6 yards per carry. Dobbins own efficiency of 4.5 yards per carry directly outpaces what the Bengals typically allow, creating a clear statistical advantage. The projected game script further supports a heavy dose of Dobbins.

As +3.5 underdogs, the Broncos are expected to lean on the run, with an estimated 61% run rate translating to approximately 18-20 carries for Dobbins. Even accounting for a potential blowout scenario, which is mitigated by the relatively close DVOA gap and spread, Dobbins floor remains strong. His adjusted floor of 56.1 yards in a blowout scenario still hovers near the prop line, showcasing his resilience. Historically, Dobbins has found success against this Bengals defense, as evidenced by his 81-yard performance in their 2024 meeting, further solidifying his capability in this specific matchup. The opportunity share is undeniable, with his 72.1% of carries ensuring he is the focal point of the Broncos ground attack.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is in a prime position to find the end zone against the Cleveland Browns, making the Anytime Touchdown prop a high-value proposition at +100 odds. St. Brown has been an offensive force for the Lions, tallying an impressive 4 touchdowns in just 3 games this season, averaging a remarkable 1.33 touchdowns per contest. His red-zone dominance is a critical factor, as he commands a significant 40% of the Lions red-zone targets, showcasing his importance in scoring situations. The matchup against the Browns defense is particularly favorable.

Cleveland ranks 28th in red-zone defense and struggles significantly against wide receivers, allowing an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game to the position. This defensive vulnerability, coupled with St. Browns elite red-zone efficiency (66.7% catch rate inside the 20), creates a perfect storm for scoring. The Lions projected game script as 8.5-point favorites further bolsters this pick. A positive game flow suggests sustained offensive drives and ample scoring opportunities. St.

Browns overall target share of 32% escalates to an even more potent 40% within the red zone, highlighting his primary role in this critical area of the field. The absence of running back Sione Vaki is also a subtle advantage, as it is expected to redistribute approximately 1.5 additional red-zone targets to St. Brown. Furthermore, the Browns defense is demonstrably weak against slot receivers, which is St. Browns primary alignment, allowing a high passer rating and significant yardage. His effectiveness against zone coverage, the Browns primary scheme, is also noteworthy, as he averages 2.31 yards per route run in such situations.

Historically, St. Brown has thrived in similar situations, particularly at home when favored by a significant margin, and his head-to-head performance against the Browns has been strong.

George Springers consistent performance and role as the leadoff hitter for the Toronto Blue Jays present a compelling case for the Over 0.5 Hits prop. Springer boasts an impressive .304 batting average over a full 158-game season, a testament to his reliable contact skills. As the leadoff hitter, he is guaranteed maximum plate appearances, providing ample opportunities to secure at least one hit.

The current odds of -240 imply a 70.6% probability of achieving this, but Springers consistent batting average suggests a truer probability of 76.6%, creating a notable 6.0% edge for bettors. The matchup against Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello is also favorable. While Bello has a respectable 3.34 ERA, he allows a .239 batting average against, indicating that hitters can make contact and find base.

This creates a viable opportunity for Springer to extend his hitting streak. Furthermore, the game is played in the controlled environment of Rogers Centre, a domed stadium. This eliminates weather as a factor, ensuring optimal and predictable hitting conditions, which is always a positive for hitter props.

While there isnt a significant platoon advantage highlighted, Springers overall consistency and role in the lineup, combined with the exploitable pitcher matchup and controlled ballpark, make this a strong play. His historical performance, marked by 30 home runs and 80 RBIs, further underscores his ability to consistently put the ball in play and generate hits.