Star Player NFL & MLB Props: September 28th, 2025

The Minnesota Vikings present a significant defensive challenge for Aaron Rodgers, particularly against the pass. Their unit ranks third in the NFL, allowing a mere 141.3 passing yards per game, a stark contrast to the projected 203.5-yard line. This defensive prowess is amplified by an aggressive scheme that leads the league in blitz percentage at 45.4%. Historical data indicates Rodgers struggles significantly under pressure, averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt when facing blitzes, a critical vulnerability against this Vikings defense.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive struggles in the run game, where they rank second-worst in the NFL with just 63.0 rushing yards per game, will inevitably force Rodgers into predictable passing situations. This lack of a consistent ground attack means the Steelers will be one-dimensional against a defense built to stifle aerial assaults. While the game script might suggest more passing attempts due to a potential deficit, the efficiency against pressure and the Vikings overall defensive strength make it highly unlikely Rodgers will accumulate significant yardage. The betting line of 203.5 passing yards appears inflated when considering the Vikings defensive metrics and Rodgers specific weaknesses.

The Vikings elite secondary and pressure-generating front seven are perfectly suited to limit Rodgers effectiveness and keep his passing yardage below this threshold. Even with the introduction of Carson Wentz for the Vikings, which might indirectly benefit the Steelers defense, the core challenge for Rodgers remains the Vikings staunch pass defense and their propensity to bring pressure. Ultimately, the combination of the Vikings elite pass defense, their league-leading blitz rate, and Rodgers documented struggles against pressure creates a substantial analytical edge for the Under. The Steelers inability to establish a run game further exacerbates this, forcing Rodgers into disadvantageous passing scenarios.

The betting market has stabilized around this line, but the underlying defensive metrics and player tendencies strongly favor a lower-yardage outcome.

Michael Busch presents a compelling opportunity to bet the Over on his 0.5 RBI prop at attractive +174 odds. His season-long performance metric of 0.584 RBI per game (90 RBIs in 154 games) indicates a consistent ability to drive in runs, significantly outperforming the implied probability of 36.5% associated with the current odds. This substantial 21.9% positive edge suggests the market is undervaluing his RBI potential. Busch is entering this matchup with exceptional recent form, highlighted by a remarkable two-homer, four-RBI performance in his last game against the very same St.

Louis Cardinals. This recent offensive explosion demonstrates his current confidence and ability to connect with the baseball, making him a prime candidate to drive in runs again. His placement in the heart of the Chicago Cubs lineup at Wrigley Field, a venue known for its hitter-friendly environment, further enhances his run-scoring prospects. The matchup against Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, who holds a respectable 3.18 ERA, is not one to shy away from for a power hitter like Busch.

While Leahy has been effective, he is not an unhittable pitcher, and Busch has demonstrated the ability to hit for power and drive in runs against various types of pitchers. His .263 batting average and a formidable .526 slugging percentage this season indicate he consistently puts himself in situations to succeed and generate extra-base hits. Considering Buschs strong RBI rate, his red-hot recent performance, his advantageous lineup spot in a hitters park, and the fact that he is facing a pitcher he can exploit, the Over 0.5 RBIs prop offers significant value. The Cubs overall offensive strength also provides a supportive environment for Busch to accumulate RBIs, as he will likely have runners on base ahead of him.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive identity for this matchup is heavily skewed towards the pass, making Aaron Rodgers Over 30.5 Pass Attempts prop a strong contender. The Steelers run game is demonstrably ineffective, averaging a mere 63.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks as the second-worst in the NFL. This severe deficiency in the ground attack forces the team to rely almost exclusively on Rodgers to move the chains and generate offense, particularly against a strong Vikings defense. When a team possesses such a weak rushing attack, the game script naturally leans towards a pass-heavy approach.

Rodgers is expected to command a significant portion of offensive plays through the air, with projections indicating approximately 65% of offensive plays will be passes. This elevated pass rate is a direct consequence of the Steelers inability to sustain drives on the ground, especially against a Vikings defense that is also stout against the run. Therefore, the volume of pass attempts is almost guaranteed to be high. Historical performance further solidifies this projection.

Aaron Rodgers has consistently exceeded the 30-pass attempt mark in games where his teams rushing yards fall below 70. In such scenarios, his average pass attempts climb to an impressive 34.2 to 35+ attempts. This situational trend provides a robust statistical precedent for expecting a high volume of throws against the Vikings, given the Steelers current rushing woes. The betting line itself has remained stable at 30.5 attempts, with a slight movement towards the Over at -120 odds.

This minor shift suggests that sharp money is indeed leaning towards Rodgers throwing the ball more often, reinforcing the analytical assessment. The calculated edge of 14.75% on this prop indicates a clear market inefficiency that can be exploited.