Todays MLB & NFL Prop Betting Edge - September 29th, 2025

J.K. Dobbins presents a compelling case for an Anytime Touchdown, anchored by his commanding presence in the Cincinnati Bengals red zone. Dobbins is receiving an overwhelming 71% of the teams red zone carries, a figure amplified by the absence of Joe Burrow. This consistent volume in scoring territory is crucial for any touchdown proposition. Furthermore, the Denver Broncos defense has proven to be a significant vulnerability, ranking as the 6th worst in the NFL by allowing an average of 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game. This defensive inefficiency against the run creates a clear pathway for Dobbins to find the end zone.

The projected game script also heavily favors Dobbins. As +4.5 underdogs, the Bengals are expected to lean on their ground game, especially with Jake Browning at quarterback whose 43.8% completion rate forces a more conservative, run-oriented approach. Dobbins is projected for an substantial 22+ carries, a volume that increases his scoring opportunities significantly. The Bengals commitment to a run-heavy scheme, with a projected 55% run rate, further solidifies the volume Dobbins will see. Beyond volume, Dobbins efficiency and matchup advantage are noteworthy. He averages 4.3 yards per carry over his last three games and boasts an 83% success rate on critical goal-to-go carries.

The Broncos defense, in particular, struggles against zone runs, which is Dobbins specialty, allowing a concerning 4.9 yards per carry in such situations. Their overall run defense is ranked 29th in DVOA, indicating a systemic weakness that Dobbins is well-equipped to exploit. The historical context also supports this pick. Dobbins delivered an impressive 121 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last outing against the Broncos, demonstrating his ability to dominate this specific matchup. His career touchdown rate of 83% when playing as a road underdog further underscores his capability to perform under pressure and in challenging environments. The line movement from -120 to -140 also signals sharp money recognizing this value.

Justin Fields return from a concussion presents a compelling opportunity for his rushing attempts to exceed the 8.5 mark, driven by his inherent mobility and a favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Fields consistently averages between 8-9 rushing attempts per game, establishing a solid baseline that makes the Over a statistically viable option. His ability to scramble and take designed runs is a critical component of his game, and this prop capitalizes on that consistent usage. The matchup against the Miami Dolphins is a significant factor.

The Dolphins defense has shown considerable weaknesses, particularly in their defensive EPA, which creates exploitable opportunities for mobile quarterbacks. Miami has struggled to contain quarterbacks who can extend plays with their legs, suggesting that Fields will have ample chances to gain yardage both on scrambles and designed runs. This defensive vulnerability is a key driver behind the projected high volume of carries. The game script for the New York Jets also leans towards Fields utilizing his legs.

Sitting at 0-3, the Jets are likely to adopt a run-heavy approach to control the clock and keep their offense on the field in what is projected to be a close contest. In competitive games, a mobile quarterback like Fields becomes even more crucial for maintaining possession and moving the chains, naturally increasing his rushing attempt count. Coaching tendencies are also expected to play a role. Given the Jets current situation and Fields unique skillset, the coaching staff is likely to emphasize his rushing ability to spark the offense and dictate the pace of play.

This strategic reliance on his legs, combined with the favorable matchup and consistent usage, creates a substantial 17.6% edge on DraftKings at -122 odds, making this a high-confidence play.

Kerry Carpenter is currently in exceptional form, making the Over 0.5 Home Runs prop at +450 on FanDuel a standout value play. Carpenter has been on a power surge, launching 4 home runs in his last 10 games. This recent streak represents a 40% home run rate in his recent appearances, indicating peak performance at the plate and a strong indication of his ability to go deep. The underlying probability for Carpenter to hit a home run tonight is estimated at a robust 25%. This figure significantly surpasses the implied probability of 18.2% derived from the generous +450 odds.

This discrepancy translates into an impressive 6.8% betting edge, offering substantial positive expected value for bettors who recognize this market inefficiency. The calculated Expected Value of 37.5% further underscores the high-potential nature of this prop. While facing Jack Flaherty, a right-handed pitcher known for his strikeout ability, Flaherty has shown vulnerability to power from left-handed hitters like Carpenter. Although Flaherty limits hits, his career 1.3 HR/9 rate suggests that he can be susceptible to giving up long balls. Carpenters current hot streak is precisely the kind of momentum that can exploit such vulnerabilities.

The game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, which is generally considered a neutral-to-slightly pitcher-friendly park, but it does not significantly suppress home run potential. The ballparks dimensions and typical play characteristics are not a deterrent to Carpenters power. Furthermore, the weather forecast for Cleveland is clear and mild, creating ideal hitting conditions without any adverse wind patterns or precipitation that could negatively impact the home run prop. This prop earns a strong 7/10 value rating due to its calculated 6.8% edge and impressive 37.5% Expected Value. The significant gap between the true probability and the implied probability highlights a mispriced line, creating exploitable value for the Over.