Top NCAAF Prop Betting Picks: August 30th, 2025

Jeremiah Smith is positioned as Ohio States undisputed No. 1 receiver, a role that guarantees a significant target share in a matchup against Texas that is projected to be highly competitive. The +115 odds present a substantial positive expected value, with our analysis projecting a roughly 52% true probability of him scoring a touchdown. This is amplified by the expectation of a tight game script, which necessitates heavy involvement from Smith, especially in crucial red zone situations.

Ohio States offensive scheme is meticulously designed to get their top playmaker involved near the goal line, creating clear pathways for Smith to find the end zone. His elite physical attributes and proven talent offer distinct matchup advantages against the Texas secondary, making him a prime candidate to score. Smiths established role as the primary receiver ensures he will command approximately 8-10 targets, with an estimated 2-3 of those opportunities coming within the red zone. This high volume of critical targets is essential in a game expected to be decided by a narrow margin.

The low blowout risk, indicated by a tight 1-point spread, guarantees that Smith will play a full complement of offensive snaps, unaffected by any score differentials. His usage rate will remain consistent, maximizing his chances to convert opportunities. The matchup against the Texas secondary, while talented, is largely untested this season, providing an early advantage for an elite receiver like Smith. His superior size and physicality are expected to allow him to consistently win his share of individual matchups, creating favorable downfield and red zone opportunities.

The consistent market perception of his Anytime Touchdown odds, ranging between +115 to +130, reinforces the strong confidence in his scoring likelihood. Furthermore, Smith is currently healthy and fully available, with no reported injuries impacting his expected role, snap count, or production, further solidifying his appeal for this prop bet.

Jeremiah Smith stands out as Texass primary receiving threat, commanding a significant target share that makes him a strong candidate for an Anytime Touchdown against Ohio State. The +110 odds present a positive expected value, with our analysis estimating a 50% chance of Smith scoring, against an implied probability of 47.62%. His consistent involvement in the passing game, particularly in critical situations, positions him as a high-probability touchdown scorer. The absence of specific negative metrics like low rolling averages or high variance further bolsters confidence in his scoring potential.

The projected competitive nature of this matchup between Texas and Ohio State is expected to foster an environment where both teams are forced to push the ball offensively. This competitive game script increases the likelihood of a sustained passing attack for Texas, providing ample opportunities for Smith to be targeted in scoring positions. A significant blowout risk is not anticipated, ensuring Jeremiah Smith will see his full complement of snaps and targets, maximizing his chances for an Anytime Touchdown. As Texass primary receiving threat, Jeremiah Smith possesses a significant matchup advantage, drawing targets in critical situations against the Ohio State secondary.

His role as the go-to receiver ensures he will be heavily featured in the red zone and in crucial down-and-distance plays, directly boosting his touchdown potential. He commands a high usage rate as the clear primary receiver for Texas, making him a focal point of their offensive scheme. This consistent target volume directly correlates to increased opportunities to find the end zone. Smith is projected to play a near-full complement of snaps, cementing his role as an offensive mainstay for the Texas Longhorns, ensuring he will be on the field for the majority of offensive drives.

Jack Endries represents a significant longshot value play for an Anytime Touchdown, priced at +650 on DraftKings. Despite a projected 9.2% probability, his demonstrated 33% red zone touchdown rate on 12 career targets, coupled with an impressive 1.8 yards per route run (YPRR), highlights his scoring upside within the Houston Texans offense. Endries has shown high red zone efficiency, converting a third of his career red zone targets into touchdowns. This is particularly noteworthy given his rotational role, where he still managed to post an elite YPRR that surpasses the FBS average for backup tight ends. The Texans frequent utilization of 12 personnel, with 22% of their red zone targets going to tight ends, provides clear pathways for Endries to score. The game against the Cleveland Browns is projected as a tight 1-point spread, suggesting a highly competitive game.

This increases the likelihood of targeted red zone opportunities for a safety-valve tight end like Endries, especially if the game remains closely contested. The blowout probability is remarkably low at only 15%, reflecting the expected tight nature of the contest, which means minimal reduction in snaps for Endries. His efficiency includes a 33% catch rate in the red zone during the previous season, underscoring his scoring prowess. Theres also potential for an increased role due to a new quarterback system and offseason development within the Texans offense. The Cleveland Browns defense allowed 7 touchdowns to tight ends last season, indicating a middle-of-the-pack performance against the position. Their linebackers allowed a 65% completion rate to tight ends in 2024, pointing to potential coverage vulnerabilities.

Endries is projected as the TE2 but is expected to be strategically utilized in red zone packages and two-tight end sets, with his base target share estimated at 15-20% of tight end targets. He is expected to play 25-35% of offensive snaps, fulfilling a rotational role with situational package involvement, settling at a projection of 28 snaps (35% of offensive plays). The +650 odds offer a positive expected value, with a calculated probability edge of +2.5% when compared to our projected 9.2% probability. This signifies a speculative but mathematically positive expectation. The primary risk is Endries potentially limited snap count and target share, but touchdown props inherently carry high variance. The confidence score is assessed at 4/10, identifying this as a speculative longshot despite a clear, albeit narrow, path to success.