Featured NBA Player Props - November 11th, 2025

Trey Murphy III is poised for a significant playmaking night, making the Over 3.5 Assists prop a compelling option. His role has expanded dramatically due to key injuries to Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, leading to a projected 4.6 assists against the Suns vulnerable perimeter defense. This expanded usage, estimated at a +15% increase, has elevated his adjusted assist rate to 5.9 APG per 36 minutes. The projected 105 possessions in this matchup, higher than Murphys season average, provides a positive adjustment, boosting his projection by an additional 0.3 assists. The Suns home games are typically fast-paced, contributing an estimated +5% possessions to the game environment, further enhancing assist opportunities.

The Suns defense struggles against playmakers, allowing 27.2 assists per game, which ranks 10th most in the league. Murphys connective passing abilities should find minimal resistance here. He has also established a high minutes floor, playing 38+ minutes in his last three games, ensuring maximum opportunity to rack up assists. The competitive spread, with the Pelicans as underdogs, minimizes blowout risk and guarantees full starter minutes. Murphys assist variance is manageable, with his 68% confidence interval falling between 2.5 and 4.7 assists, placing the 3.5 assist line well within his expected range.

The final projection of 4.6 assists offers a substantial buffer over the line. The true probability of 58.3% significantly exceeds the implied probability of 56.5% at -130 odds, yielding a raw edge of 1.8%, which expands to an impressive 8.2% after accounting for injury and pace factors. This translates to an Expected Value of +16.6%, justifying a 6.5% Kelly Criterion recommendation. The line has remained stable at 3.5 assists, with some indication of slight sharp action on the Over, further supporting this projection. Two days of rest also mitigate fatigue concerns for Murphy.

Brandon Ingram presents a compelling case for the Over 4.5 Assists prop, bolstered by his recent form and a highly favorable matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. Ingram has been on an upward trend in playmaking, averaging 4.2 assists over his last five games and recording four or more assists in five of his last seven contests. This hot streak is sustainable given the Nets defensive struggles; they rank 26th in defensive rating and are particularly vulnerable to wing playmakers like Ingram. The game is anticipated to be fast-paced at Barclays Center, projected around 100 possessions, which historically benefits Ingrams assist numbers.

A fast-paced environment ensures a higher volume of scoring opportunities for the Raptors. The game script is expected to be competitive, with low blowout risk, guaranteeing Ingram will play his projected 32-34 minutes. The return of Jakob Poeltl should also open up more driving lanes and assist opportunities for Ingram. There are no major injuries on the Raptors backcourt or wings that would significantly redistribute his usage.

While assists props carry medium statistical variance, Ingrams current form and the weak Nets defense mitigate much of this risk. The true probability of 56.7% significantly outweighs the implied probability of 45.7% at +123 odds, resulting in a substantial 10.9% raw edge. This translates to an Expected Value of $26.44 per $100 wagered, indicating strong value and justifying a 6% Kelly Criterion allocation. The line has remained stable at 4.5 assists, with no significant sharp action observed, suggesting the current odds offer early value.

Drake Batherson is positioned for a strong performance, making the Over 0.5 Assists prop a solid play against the Dallas Stars. While his overall points per game has regressed slightly to 0.83, this still indicates a high offensive floor and consistent involvement in scoring plays. The Ottawa Senators are currently riding a significant five-game point streak, which fuels overall team offensive potential and creates more scoring chances for their top players.

The Dallas Stars defense, while middle-of-the-pack, is reportedly dealing with key defensive injuries, which should open up passing lanes and create more opportunities for Batherson to set up his teammates. Bathersons consistent deployment in the top-six and on the power play ensures he is on the ice during high-leverage offensive situations. He is expected to skate alongside other skilled forwards like Tim Stützle or Claude Giroux, enhancing chemistry and assist opportunities.

The Senators power play unit, a primary source of assists for playmaking wingers, should find success against a Stars penalty kill unit that may be vulnerable due to defensive absences. Playing at home in Ottawa also provides a slight advantage, where Batherson typically performs well. The projected 60.0% win probability against the assumed -115 odds suggests a substantial 6.5% edge.

This translates to a strong Expected Value of $12.18 per $100 wagered, justifying an 8/10 value rating. The market has not fully priced in Bathersons high usage and the Stars injury situation, presenting an opportunity to capitalize on this value.