Expert NBA Prop Betting Selections for November 14th, 2025

Paolo Banchero is entering this matchup against the Brooklyn Nets with a scoring surge that makes the Over 25.5 points prop exceptionally attractive. Over his last 10 games, Banchero has been averaging a remarkable 27.1 points per game, a clear uptick from his season average. This recent offensive explosion is not a fluke; its fueled by a consistent 36.8 minutes per game, ensuring he has ample opportunity to impact the scoring column. His usage rate remains elite at 31.5%, indicating that the Magic offense flows through him, particularly in crucial scoring situations. The matchup against the Nets presents a significant advantage.

Brooklyn ranks a dismal 29th defensively against power forwards, allowing an average of 28.5 points to the position. Their primary defender at the four struggles with the size and strength that Banchero possesses, leading to a higher opponent field goal percentage in the paint. Furthermore, the Nets are prone to fouling, ranking 27th in opponent free throw attempts allowed, a critical factor for Banchero who consistently draws fouls and converts at the free-throw line, averaging 7.5 attempts per game. Bancheros shot distribution is also favorable for this prop. Approximately 65% of his attempts come from inside the arc, where he can exploit the Nets interior defensive weaknesses.

His efficiency remains high, with a recent field goal percentage of 48.5% over the last two weeks. The combination of his current scoring form, a highly advantageous matchup, and his consistent role in the Magic offense paints a clear picture for a high-scoring outing. The projected pace of the game, while slightly below average, is mitigated by the Nets defensive deficiencies, ensuring that Banchero can still generate enough possessions to reach this scoring threshold. Historically, Banchero has also found success against the Nets, averaging 26.8 points in their recent meetings. In their last encounter, he poured in 31 points, showcasing his ability to exploit their defensive scheme, particularly their tendency to switch, which he can use to his advantage in the post.

The combination of current form, matchup advantage, historical success, and his consistent minutes makes this prop a high-conviction play.

The absence of key offensive playmakers Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier thrusts Norman Powell into a significantly expanded offensive role for the Miami Heat, making the Over 18.5 points prop a compelling option. Powell has demonstrated his scoring ability in these high-usage scenarios, averaging an impressive 21.5 points over his last five games. This recent stretch already surpasses the 18.5-point line, establishing a strong scoring floor and indicating his readiness to carry a heavier offensive load. With the primary scorers sidelined, Powells usage rate is projected to climb to an elite 30.5%.

This increased involvement guarantees a higher volume of shot attempts, with him averaging 17.5 field goal attempts per game in similar high-usage situations. His shot distribution, with a significant portion coming from three-point range (7.2 attempts per game in high-usage contests), combined with his ability to create his own shot, makes him less reliant on others and more capable of generating his own scoring opportunities. The matchup against the New York Knicks is also favorable. The Knicks defense ranks 24th in points allowed to shooting guards this season.

Powells career shooting percentage of 48.5% against the Knicks suggests he has historically performed well against them, and their defensive scheme, which can struggle against off-ball movement, plays directly into Powells strengths. He is expected to play a full complement of minutes, projected at 36.0 MPG, ensuring he has ample time to accumulate points. The injury situation is the primary driver here. Powell is expected to receive a significant scoring boost of approximately 6.5 points per game due to the consolidated scoring responsibility.

This structural increase in his offensive output, coupled with his recent scoring form and a favorable matchup, makes the Over 18.5 points a high-probability play. The market is not fully pricing in the impact of these key absences on Powells scoring potential.

Jerami Grants Over 1.5 Assists prop at +148 odds presents a mathematically dominant play, driven by the significant redistribution of playmaking duties due to the absences of Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson. In games where both primary guards are out, Grants usage rate is projected to skyrocket from a baseline 22.1% to a substantial 35.9%. This dramatic increase in offensive responsibility directly translates to more playmaking opportunities, as he becomes the primary wing creator for the Portland Trail Blazers. Statistically, this scenario is highly favorable. In the two games this season where both Lillard and Henderson were inactive, Grant achieved 3 and 4 assists, resulting in a perfect 100% clearance rate for this prop and an average of 3.5 assists per game.

This small sample size provides strong confirmation of his enhanced playmaking in this specific game script. His projected minutes of 34.4 are also well above the threshold needed to accumulate the necessary assists, with his per-minute assist rate projecting to 2.41 assists. The matchup against the Houston Rockets, who possess a bottom-10 defense against power forwards, further enhances Grants assist potential. The absence of Fred VanVleet for Houston compromises their perimeter containment, creating more opportunities for Grant to drive and kick. Furthermore, the Rockets limited rim protection from Alperen Sengun means that opposing players can exploit gaps and find open shooters, a role Grant is well-suited to fill.

His assist rate is projected to jump from 12.1% to 18.5% in this elevated role. Market intelligence also strongly supports this play. The line has moved significantly from an opening of +165 to the current +148, indicating sharp money is targeting the Over despite public perception leaning towards the Under. This reverse line movement is a classic indicator of professional betting activity. The edge over the implied probability is substantial at 26.6%, making this a high-value proposition.

The combination of structural role changes, historical success in similar situations, a favorable matchup, and positive market signals makes this an expert recommendation with a strong bet size.