Featured NBA Player Props - November 14th, 2025

Karl-Anthony Towns is set to exceed his 0.5 block threshold against the Miami Heat, driven by a confluence of factors pointing towards defensive activity. His recent performance includes 2 blocks in his last outing, showcasing current rim protection engagement. Across 11 games this season, Towns has cleared this line in 7 instances, establishing a solid floor for his defensive output. The Miami Heat present a particularly advantageous matchup, ranking 22nd in blocks allowed to centers. Their frontlines tendency to allow contested rim attempts, coupled with their drive-heavy offense that generates a significant percentage of shots in the paint, aligns perfectly with Towns defensive strengths.

Towns role as a primary rim protector is stable, unaffected by offensive fluctuations. His average of 1.0 blocks per game this season is sustainable, and his historical performance against the Heat, averaging 1.2 blocks in four career meetings, further bolsters confidence. The projected minutes for Towns, around 33.5, and an anticipated increase in game pace, suggest an environment ripe for defensive opportunities. The 0.5 block line for a starting center playing significant minutes is inherently a low bar, and the statistical projections indicate a comfortable margin for him to surpass it. The true probability of Towns recording at least one block, estimated at 63.2%, significantly outpaces the implied probability of 51.9% from the -108 odds.

This discrepancy represents a substantial 11.3% edge, signaling strong positive expected value. The analysis of his minutes projection, particularly the increase to 34.2 MPG over the last five games and an anticipated 2% boost due to two days of rest, solidifies the expectation of ample playing time. This ensures he will be on the court to contest shots and accumulate defensive statistics. Furthermore, the game script is projected to be competitive, minimizing the risk of Towns being benched due to a blowout. The Knicks strong home record and the Heats offensive tendencies create a scenario where Towns will be engaged on both ends of the floor.

The absence of any significant referee impact or unusual foul trouble projections further supports a clean, high-minute performance, making the Over 0.5 blocks a confident selection.

Norman Powell is poised for a significant scoring output in tonights matchup against the New York Knicks, primarily due to the substantial absences within the Miami Heats roster. With Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier sidelined, the offensive load will disproportionately fall on Powell. This scenario has historically led to a considerable boost in his scoring, with projections indicating a +6.5 PPG increase when these key players are off the floor. His recent form further supports this outlook, as he has averaged 21.5 PPG over his last five contests, a mark that already surpasses the 18.5-point line comfortably. The increased offensive responsibility translates directly into an elite usage rate for Powell, projected at 30.5%.

This high usage guarantees a consistent stream of scoring opportunities, as he will be a primary focus of the Heats offensive schemes. He averages 17.5 field goal attempts per game in these high-usage scenarios, providing ample volume to reach the required point total. His efficiency remains strong, evidenced by a 47.2% field goal percentage and 40.1% from three over his last five games, indicating he can convert these opportunities effectively. Powells projected minutes are also a critical factor, with an expectation of 36.0 MPG. The depleted Heat roster necessitates his presence on the floor for extended periods, regardless of minor fatigue.

This extended playing time, combined with his per-minute scoring rate of 0.60 PPM, projects him to score around 21.6 points, well above the 18.5-point line. His ability to create his own shot, with approximately 65% of his scoring coming from self-created opportunities, makes him less reliant on the remaining playmakers, further solidifying his scoring potential. Historically, Powell has performed well against the New York Knicks, averaging 19.8 PPG in his last three matchups. The Knicks defense, which ranks 24th in points allowed to shooting guards, presents a favorable matchup for Powells scoring abilities. His career shooting percentage of 48.5% from the field against the Knicks underscores his historical success against this particular opponent.

The combination of increased usage, strong recent form, favorable historical matchups, and a projected high minute total makes the Over 18.5 points a compelling bet.

TreVeyon Henderson is positioned for a high-volume rushing touchdown opportunity against the New York Jets, largely due to the New England Patriots projected dominance in this matchup. Hendersons recent performance in Week 10, where he amassed 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns, represents a significant upward trend compared to his season averages. This outlier performance, while potentially volatile, signals his capability to break out and find the end zone multiple times when given the opportunity. His efficiency is also noteworthy, boasting a 5.3 yards per carry average and an exceptionally low 0.98% fumble rate on 102 touches, instilling confidence in his ability to handle significant workload.

The projected game script heavily favors a run-heavy approach for the Patriots. Expected to be in a commanding lead, New England will likely lean on their ground game to control the clock and exploit a potentially demoralized Jets defense. The Patriots average a healthy 28.9 rushing attempts per game, a number that is poised to increase substantially in a blowout scenario. Hendersons consistent role, averaging 8.1 rush attempts per game, provides a solid floor for his volume, and the increased red-zone possessions in a projected blowout will amplify his scoring chances.

His snap count, averaging 21.6 snaps per game, is expected to remain steady or even increase as the Patriots look to pound the ball. This consistent playing time is crucial for accumulating rushing attempts and, subsequently, scoring opportunities. The advanced statistical edge provided by his high yards per carry and secure ball handling are critical factors. A low fumble rate ensures that he remains on the field for critical scoring opportunities, preventing costly turnovers that might sideline him.

While the Week 10 performance is an outlier compared to his season average of 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game, the confluence of a potentially massive blowout, a run-heavy game script, and Hendersons demonstrated efficiency and ball security makes the Over 1.5 rushing touchdowns a compelling proposition. The estimated odds of +150 offer attractive value, reflecting the potential for a high-reward outcome if the projected game script unfolds as anticipated.