Sharp NBA Prop Betting Moves for November 14th, 2025

LeBron James is entering this matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans in excellent scoring form, averaging 24.5 points per game over his last 10 contests. This represents a notable uptick from his earlier season average, signaling that the veteran superstar is hitting a strong stride. His efficiency has also been impressive, with a 48.2% field goal percentage and 38.5% three-point percentage in his last five games, indicating that his shot is falling consistently. Crucially, his shot volume has increased, with an average of 18.2 field goal attempts per game, up from his season average. This increased aggression is further supported by his consistent scoring, having put up 20+ points in his last five consecutive games, establishing a reliable floor. The matchup against the Pelicans presents a significant advantage for James.

New Orleans ranks a dismal 28th in the league in points allowed to forwards, surrendering an average of 26.8 points per game to the position. Their perimeter defense is particularly susceptible, ranking 25th in opponent three-point percentage. This vulnerability extends to their primary defenders, with Jaylen Brown, who often guards players in Jamess vicinity, allowing a considerable 24.3 points per game when matched up. The recent trend of forwards torching the Pelicans – with Kevin Durant scoring 31, Paul George 28, and Jayson Tatum 26 in recent contests – underscores this defensive weakness. James commands an elite usage rate of 32.8%, placing him among the top forwards in the league. This high usage translates directly into shot opportunities, with his 18.2 field goal attempts and 6.2 three-point attempts per game showcasing a balanced scoring attack.

His assist rate of 28.5% indicates that he is self-sufficient in creating his own offense, with 71.5% of his baskets being self-generated. His frequent use of the pick-and-roll, averaging 8.2 possessions per game, further solidifies his role as the primary offensive initiator. Despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back, Jamess minutes projection remains robust. He is averaging 36.2 minutes over his last 10 games, and even with a typical 8% reduction for back-to-backs, his projected 33 minutes still comfortably clears the line. His per-minute scoring rate of 0.68 points per minute at this reduced workload projects to over 22 points, and historical data shows coachs commitment to giving him 32+ minutes in competitive games. The projected fast pace of the game, estimated at 110 possessions, an increase of 10% above the season average, is expected to add approximately 2.5 points to his projection, pushing him towards 27 points.

The Lakers being slight favorites by 3.5 points suggests a competitive environment where starters will see full minutes, and the projected total of 228.5 points indicates a high-scoring affair.

The analysis for Jimmy Butlers PRA prop is currently on hold due to critical uncertainties surrounding the Miami Heats injury report. Before any definitive statistical projection can be established, it is imperative to confirm the availability of key rotational players. Without this crucial information, any attempt to forecast Butlers usage, minutes, or overall statistical output would be speculative and unreliable.

The current focus is solely on obtaining verified updates regarding the Miami Heats injury status for their upcoming game. The availability of other players on the Heat roster directly impacts Jimmy Butlers role and statistical potential. If key teammates are sidelined, Butlers usage rate and minutes are likely to increase significantly, potentially making the PRA Over a strong play.

Conversely, if the Heat are at full strength, his statistical distribution might be more balanced across the roster. Therefore, the confirmation of the injury report is the single most critical factor that will determine the viability of this prop bet. Until this information is confirmed, all statistical modeling and projection efforts are paused.

Alperen Sengun is poised for a significant scoring increase in this matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers, driven by a confluence of factors including substantial usage redistribution and a favorable defensive matchup. With key teammates Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks sidelined, Sengun is expected to absorb a considerable portion of the offensive load. His projected usage rate is set to spike to an elite 33.0%, a substantial leap from his usual rate, positioning him as the primary offensive hub for the Houston Rockets. This elevated usage is not merely theoretical; historically, when VanVleet and Brooks have been off the court, Sengun has averaged an impressive 26.4 points per game, demonstrating his capability to carry the scoring burden. The defensive matchup against the Trail Blazers center rotation is particularly advantageous for Sengun.

Portland ranks 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating against opposing centers, allowing an average of 24.2 points per game to the position. Rookie center Donovan Clingan, who is likely to draw the primary assignment on Sengun, has shown vulnerabilities, allowing a 52.3% effective field goal percentage and averaging a high number of fouls. Sengun, who generates a significant majority of his shots in the paint, will exploit Portlands interior defense, where they allow a high 64.3% field goal percentage. Senguns minutes projection is also favorable, with an anticipated 35.5 minutes of playing time. This is supported by the Rockets being favored by three points, suggesting a competitive game script where starters will remain on the floor.

His baseline scoring rate of 0.69 points per minute, when combined with this projected playing time, already puts him at 24.5 points before considering the significant adjustments for matchup and increased usage. The low probability of a blowout further solidifies the expectation of a full workload for Sengun. The current odds of +164 for Sengun to exceed 24.5 points present a significant market inefficiency. The calculated true probability of 60.35% provides a substantial edge of 22.47% over the implied odds. This translates to a strong Expected Value of over $36 per $100 wagered, making this a highly attractive proposition.

The line movement, from an opening of 23.5 points at +140 to the current 24.5 points at +164, suggests that while the line has adjusted, the value has been retained, likely due to sharp money comfortable with the current odds despite the increased point total.