NBA Props Decoded - November 15th, 2025 Analysis

Santi Aldama is entering this matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers with a strong scoring rhythm. Over his last 10 games, hes been consistently productive, averaging 13.8 points per game. This trend represents a slight uptick from his season average, showcasing his ability to elevate his game. Crucially, he has surpassed the 12.5-point threshold in 70% of these recent contests, establishing a reliable scoring floor. This consistency is bolstered by his significant role within the Memphis Grizzlies offense, evidenced by a usage rate of 21.5%, which translates to an average of 11.5 field goal attempts per game. His shot diet includes a healthy 4.5 three-point attempts, a dimension that directly targets a weakness in the Cavaliers defensive scheme.

The Cavaliers present a particularly attractive matchup for Aldama. Their interior defense is statistically one of the leagues worst, specifically against power forwards. They concede an average of 25.1 points per game to the position, ranking them 29th in the NBA. This vulnerability is amplified by their struggles defending stretch fours who can knock down perimeter shots. The Cavaliers allow opponents to shoot a concerning 38.5% from beyond the arc to the power forward position, a space where Aldama actively operates. His ability to stretch the floor and pull opposing bigs away from the basket should create ample scoring opportunities, whether through open jump shots or driving lanes.

Aldamas minutes projection is also a key factor. He is firmly established as a starter, averaging a robust 32.5 minutes per game over the past month. In competitive game environments, which this matchup is expected to be, his minutes tend to increase to around 34.1 per game. This extended playing time, combined with his per-minute scoring rate of 0.42 points, projects him to score approximately 13.65 points even at his average minutes. The projected game pace of 103.5 possessions, slightly above the Grizzlies season average, further enhances his scoring potential by creating more possessions and thus more opportunities for him to get involved offensively. While the potential return of Ja Morant could slightly impact his usage, it may also open up more catch-and-shoot looks for Aldama as defenses focus on Morant.

Nikola Jokic is in a rich vein of scoring form, averaging an impressive 28.5 points per game over his last 10 outings. This represents a significant increase from his season average, demonstrating his ability to carry the offensive load for the Denver Nuggets. His scoring efficiency remains elite, shooting a remarkable 58.2% from the field in his most recent contests, a testament to his masterful offensive game. Crucially, Jokic has surpassed the 26.5-point mark in 7 of his last 10 games, establishing a high and consistent scoring floor that makes this prop bet highly attractive. His shot volume has also seen an uptick, averaging 19.5 field goal attempts per game recently, up from his season average of 18.0, ensuring he is actively involved in the scoring column.

While the Minnesota Timberwolves boast an elite overall defense, their specific matchup against high-usage centers like Jokic presents exploitable angles. They rank 15th in points allowed to centers, conceding 23.8 points per game to the position. This statistic, however, doesnt fully capture the nuance of how teams defend Jokic. Despite the presence of Rudy Gobert, a premier rim protector, Jokics finesse game, masterful post-up ability, and proficiency in the short roll and elbow jumper areas are difficult to contain. Gobert allows opponents to shoot around 52.5% within six feet, which is slightly below average for elite rim protectors, but Jokics unique offensive skillset often mitigates these advantages.

The Timberwolves defensive scheme can sometimes force Jokic into scoring situations rather than purely facilitating, which directly benefits his points prop. The projected slow pace of 99.5 possessions for this game might typically be a concern for scoring props. However, Jokics exceptional per-minute scoring rate of 0.80 points per minute is a critical factor that offsets this. At an anticipated 36 minutes of playing time, this rate projects him to score approximately 28.8 points, comfortably clearing the 26.5-point line. His historical performance against the Timberwolves further solidifies this projection, as he averages 27.5 points per game over his career against them and has averaged 29.1 points in their last five meetings.

This consistent success against this specific opponent, combined with his current scoring surge and high usage rate of 30.5%, creates a significant statistical edge.

Brandon Ingram is poised for a strong performance against the Indiana Pacers, making the Over 24.5 Points + Assists prop a highly attractive wager. His season average for combined points and assists aligns precisely with the line, but his recent form indicates a clear upward trend. Over his last 10 games, Ingram has been exceptionally productive, averaging 21.2 points and 4.3 assists, totaling 25.5 Points + Assists per game. This recent output comfortably surpasses the 24.5 line, establishing a solid floor for this bet. His efficiency has also remained consistent, supported by a True Shooting percentage of 56.2%, demonstrating his ability to score effectively while contributing as a playmaker.

The matchup against the Indiana Pacers presents a significant advantage for Ingram. The Pacers currently rank as the 29th worst defense in the NBA in terms of defensive rating, allowing a staggering 122.7 points per game. This defensive frailty is particularly pronounced in the areas where Ingram thrives. The Pacers allow opponents to shoot a poor 48% on drives to the basket, which is the 28th worst mark in the league. Ingrams game heavily features drives to the hoop, where he converts at a high clip, and his ability to finish through contact or draw fouls will be a key factor in accumulating points.

Furthermore, small forwards historically average a substantial 22.5 points against the Pacers, highlighting a positional mismatch that Ingram is well-positioned to exploit. Ingrams role as the primary offensive initiator for the Toronto Raptors is well-established, reflected in his consistent usage rate of 28.5%. This high usage ensures he is heavily involved in the teams offensive schemes, leading to ample opportunities to accumulate both points and assists. His minutes projection is also favorable, with an anticipated 36 minutes of playing time. This is an increase from his season average of 34.2 minutes, driven by the expectation of a competitive game script, as the Raptors are favored by 6.5 points.

The projected game pace of 102 possessions, slightly above Ingrams average games, further contributes to his scoring and assist potential by increasing the number of possessions available. The combination of his recent form, elite matchup, and consistent role creates a strong statistical edge.