Star Player NBA Props: November 17th, 2025

James Harden is currently operating at an elite level, as evidenced by his recent surge in production. Over his last 10 games, hes averaged an impressive 37.0 combined points and assists, already surpassing the 35.5 line set for this matchup. This sustained high-level performance is a testament to his current form and his ability to impact the game in multiple ways. His season average of 35.0 P+A also provides a solid floor, indicating that the current line is well within his established capabilities. The most significant factor tilting the scales in favor of the Over is the massive injury-related matchup advantage against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The absence of Joel Embiid, a defensive anchor, severely weakens their interior defense and rim protection. This void is expected to create significant opportunities for Harden to attack the paint and finish at a higher rate, or find open teammates. Without Embiid, the 76ers defensive capabilities are projected to be in the bottom 10 of the league, making Hardens drives and playmaking particularly potent. Hardens usage rate is consistently high, as he is the primary ball-handler and initiator for the Clippers. With the defensive vulnerabilities of the 76ers, particularly in the paint, his opportunity to generate scoring and assists is amplified.

We project an increased usage opportunity of approximately 15%, leading to an adjusted production projection of 40.25 P+A. This projection offers a substantial cushion over the 35.5 line, indicating a strong likelihood of clearing the total. The game environment also favors a high-paced contest. The 76ers play at a high pace, which translates to more possessions and, consequently, more opportunities for Harden to accumulate points and assists. His ability to excel in transition and drive the pace of play will be a significant advantage in this up-tempo matchup.

Combined with the favorable defensive matchup and his current stellar form, all indicators point towards a strong performance from Harden.

Brandon Ingram has established himself as the primary offensive initiator for the Toronto Raptors, commanding an elite 28.3% usage rate. This high usage translates directly into scoring opportunities, as he averages a consistent 21.4 points per game on efficient 50.6% field goal shooting. His ability to create his own shot and convert from various spots on the floor makes him a constant threat to exceed scoring totals. The matchup against the Charlotte Hornets presents a particularly favorable scenario for Ingram. The Hornets rank 25th in the league in defending small forwards, allowing an average of 24.3 points per game to the position.

Furthermore, their overall defensive struggles are evident, as they surrender the fourth-worst scoring output in the NBA at 116.9 points per game. Their particular weakness lies in defending wings, where they allow a 48.2% field goal percentage, aligning perfectly with Ingrams strengths, especially his efficient midrange game. Ingrams scoring trajectory is also supported by recent trends. He has successfully cleared the 20.5 point line in a commanding 8 out of his last 11 games this season. This consistent ability to hit the over indicates a strong current scoring rhythm.

Moreover, he has shown a particular aptitude for performing against sub-.500 teams, recording five consecutive overs in such matchups, which bodes well for this game against the Hornets. The projected pace of the game is also a positive factor. The anticipated 110.2 pace is slightly faster than Ingrams season average, which is expected to generate additional possessions and scoring opportunities. This pace differential is projected to provide a small, but impactful, boost to his scoring output. Coupled with his established usage, efficiency, and historical performance against the Hornets, the Over 20.5 points prop is a well-supported bet.

Brandon Aubrey has emerged as one of the most reliable and high-volume kickers in the NFL, making the Over 1.5 Player Field Goals a compelling proposition. His season-long accuracy is outstanding, converting 92% of his 25 attempts, which speaks to his consistent ability to make kicks. More importantly for this prop, he averages a solid 2.2 field goal attempts per game, establishing a strong volume floor that frequently clears the 1.5 threshold. The matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders presents a favorable environment for Aubrey to get his opportunities.

The Raiders defense struggles in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals on a significant 48% of their red zone trips. This rate is considerably higher than the league average, indicating that drives often stall within scoring distance, leading to more field goal attempts rather than touchdowns. Furthermore, the Raiders defense allows an average of 24.4 points per game, placing them in the bottom half of the league and suggesting that the Cowboys will have ample opportunities to move the ball and attempt multiple scores. Aubreys historical performance further bolsters this pick.

He has successfully cleared the 1.5 field goal line in 70% of his games this season, demonstrating a consistent ability to achieve this target. This historical trend provides a strong statistical basis for expecting him to do so again. The game being played in a dome also eliminates weather as a factor, ensuring perfect kicking conditions and maximizing his conversion probability. Considering the Cowboys offensive prowess, the Raiders defensive tendencies in the red zone, and Aubreys consistent volume and accuracy, the Over 1.5 field goals presents a significant value.

The calculated edge over the implied probability indicates a mathematically advantageous bet, making it an attractive option for bettors seeking reliable player props.