Professional NBA Prop Betting Edge for November 19th, 2025

Evan Mobleys assist prop is a prime target due to his demonstrably expanding playmaking role within the Cavaliers offense. Over his last 10 games, Mobley has averaged 4.6 assists, a significant uptick from his season average and consistently clearing the 3.5 assist line. This trend is not an anomaly; it reflects a genuine development in his game, leveraging his court vision from the high post and elbow areas where he boasts a strong 65% pass completion rate. The matchup against the Houston Rockets is particularly advantageous, as the Rockets rank 22nd in opponent assists allowed, indicating a defensive scheme that struggles to contain facilitating big men.

The projected fast-paced game environment, with an estimated 105 possessions, further bolsters this projection. This uptempo style is expected to generate an additional 2-3 assist opportunities over a standard game, which Mobley, with his established 0.125 assists per possession rate, is well-positioned to capitalize on. His minutes projection remains robust at 36 minutes, with no fatigue concerns due to a normal rest pattern. The Cavaliers offensive structure, which heavily features pick-and-roll action, naturally creates passing lanes for Mobley, especially against a switching defense that can be slow to rotate.

Furthermore, the market has shown signs of recognizing this value. The line movement to +106 suggests sharp money is indeed backing the Over, confirming potential market inefficiency. Mobleys historical performance against the Rockets also supports this play, averaging 5.2 assists in similar matchups. While assist props carry inherent variance, Mobleys consistent output and role expansion provide a solid floor, with his 68% confidence range for assists projected between 3.2 and 5.4, comfortably covering the 3.5 line.

Dereck Lively IIs Over 1.5 assists prop presents a strong value proposition, underpinned by his consistent playmaking contributions and a highly favorable matchup against the New York Knicks. Over his last 10 games, Lively II has averaged 1.8 assists, comfortably exceeding the 1.5 line. This steady production is directly linked to his increased involvement in the Mavericks offense, particularly as a primary pick-and-roll partner, reflected in his adjusted usage rate of 15.8%. His role as a rim-running center naturally generates high-percentage assist opportunities, especially when paired with a ball-handler like Luka Dončić.

The matchup against the Knicks is particularly enticing, as New York ranks 22nd in assists allowed to centers. Opposing centers are averaging 2.1 assists against the Knicks this season, a figure well above Lively IIs prop line. The Knicks aggressive perimeter defense often forces them to overcommit, leaving rolling big men open for easy dump-off passes. This defensive tendency is a key factor in Lively IIs ability to generate assists, with an estimated +0.4 assists per game derived specifically from paint touches.

The projected fast-paced game script, with an estimated 102 possessions, further amplifies assist opportunities. The Knicks third-fastest pace in the league contributes to a higher number of possessions, creating more chances for Lively II to find open teammates. His projected minutes of 24.5, bolstered by a competitive game script, ensure he has ample opportunity to hit the Over. Even with the inherent medium variance of assist props, Lively IIs stable role, consistent production, and the exploitable matchup make this a high-confidence play.

Khris Middletons Over 2.5 assists prop stands out as a value play, particularly given the projected game script and his consistent playmaking role. Middleton has been averaging 2.8 assists over his last five games, demonstrating a reliable floor that comfortably clears the 2.5 assist line. While the Minnesota Timberwolves possess a strong overall defense, their focus on perimeter scoring and shot prevention can indirectly benefit Middleton by encouraging ball movement and creating passing opportunities for the Wizards. This defensive emphasis forces opponents to rely more on facilitation when isolation scoring is stifled.

The most significant factor influencing this pick is the high probability of a blowout. With the Wizards holding a 1-12 record and the Timberwolves at 9-5, theres a roughly 60% chance of a significant margin of victory. In such scenarios, veteran playmakers like Middleton often remain on the court to run the offense, even in garbage time. This ensures he retains opportunities to accumulate assists, even if his scoring volume decreases.

His projected minutes, adjusted for blowout risk, still land in the 26-28 minute range, which is sufficient for him to reach the Over given his per-minute playmaking efficiency. The odds of +108 offer positive line value, exceeding the implied probability based on the calculated true probability of 52%. This suggests a slight market inefficiency that can be exploited. While his usage rate of around 18% limits the ceiling for extremely high assist numbers, it is sufficient for him to consistently reach the 2.5 mark, especially in situations where ball movement is prioritized.

The combination of recent consistent assist production, a role that thrives in potential blowout scenarios, and favorable odds makes this an attractive prop bet.