Top NBA Prop Betting Picks: November 19th, 2025 Analysis

Josh Giddey presents a compelling case for the Over 7.5 Rebounds prop, driven by a confluence of strong recent form and an exceptionally favorable matchup. Over his last five contests, Giddey has been a force on the glass, averaging a robust 9.5 rebounds per game. This significantly surpasses the 7.5 line, indicating a clear upward trend in his rebounding production. His defensive rebounding rate, ranking in the top five among non-centers, highlights his excellent court positioning and anticipation, crucial for securing boards.

The matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers is a significant catalyst for this play. The Trail Blazers are statistically one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, ranking 29th in opponent rebounding rate. They consistently struggle to box out opposing wings, allowing a league-high 14.2 rebounds per game to guards and forwards. This defensive deficiency in controlling the paint and perimeter creates a fertile ground for Giddey to exploit.

The projected fast pace of the game, with the Trail Blazers playing at the 10th fastest pace in the NBA, further amplifies rebounding opportunities. More possessions naturally lead to more shot attempts and, consequently, more rebounds available. Giddey has historically performed even better in higher-paced games, averaging an additional 1.1 rebounds in contests exceeding 104 possessions. While the Chicago Bulls are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, which could theoretically lead to slightly reduced minutes, Giddeys rebounding prowess has proven resilient.

He has historically maintained a high rebounding rate even with fewer minutes on B2B situations. Furthermore, the potential absence of Nikola Vucevic would only increase Giddeys rebounding burden and opportunities, adding a significant boost to his projection.

Aaron Gordon is positioned for a strong scoring performance tonight, making the Over 18.5 points prop an attractive wager. His season average of 20.3 points per game already sits comfortably above the 18.5 line, indicating a consistent ability to surpass this threshold. Furthermore, Gordon has demonstrated this capability directly in recent games, scoring 20 or more points in a remarkable 58.3% of his contests this season (7 out of 12 games). The matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans is particularly enticing.

The Pelicans have struggled significantly this season, evidenced by their 2-12 record and a defense that has been porous. Gordons efficient scoring, boasting a 53.6% field goal percentage and a 45.2% clip from beyond the arc, is ideally suited to exploit the Pelicans defensive vulnerabilities. His ability to score from various spots on the floor makes him a difficult assignment for a struggling defensive unit. Playing within the high-powered Denver Nuggets offense, which averages an impressive 124.0 points per game, guarantees a wealth of scoring opportunities.

Gordon maintains a stable and significant 32.0% usage rate, solidifying his role as a primary scoring option within this potent attack. His consistent production rate of 0.67 points per minute, coupled with an expected 30-32 minutes of playing time, strongly suggests he will comfortably exceed the 18.5 point line. The game script is also favorable. While the Nuggets are favored, the game is expected to remain competitive enough for Gordon to play his full allotment of minutes, mitigating concerns about a blowout significantly impacting his scoring potential.

His consistent performance, unaffected by back-to-back scheduling or significant travel fatigue, further bolsters confidence in this prop.

The play on Nazem Kadri for Over 0.5 Power Play Points is predicated on a low threshold requirement and a projected high-scoring game script that should generate ample power play opportunities. While the Calgary Flames power play unit has struggled, and the Buffalo Sabres possess an elite penalty kill, the sheer volume of potential power play chances in a competitive matchup makes this prop viable. The most significant factor is the extremely low bar set for this bet: a single power play point, either a goal or an assist. This makes the prop achievable even with limited success on the man advantage.

The game is projected to be a high-scoring affair, with an estimated total of 11.37 goals. Such high-scoring games often correlate with an increased number of penalties taken by both teams, thereby increasing the likelihood of power play situations. Kadri is a key player on the Flames primary power play unit, ensuring he will be on the ice for the majority of their man-advantage opportunities. While his average power play time is relatively low at 1.5 minutes per game, his role on the top unit means efficiency is paramount, and he has demonstrated the ability to produce in these high-leverage situations.

His recent involvement, including a power play assist in his prior game, indicates he is actively contributing to the special teams unit. The primary concern is the stark contrast between the Flames struggling 12.7% power play conversion rate and the Sabres formidable 89.7% penalty kill. However, the analysis hinges on the Sabres being forced to take multiple penalties due to the projected fast pace and competitive nature of the game, rather than the Flames high conversion rate. The expectation is that the Sabres will take approximately three penalties, providing Kadri with sufficient opportunities to register a point.