Sharp NBA Prop Betting Moves for November 21st, 2025

Scottie Barnes is entering this matchup against the Washington Wizards with a clear scoring momentum, averaging an impressive 22.8 points per game over his last 10 contests. This represents a significant uptick from his season average and indicates a player hitting his stride. His shooting efficiency has also seen a boost, with a 51.2% field goal percentage and a 40.0% clip from beyond the arc in his last five games, demonstrating a more polished offensive game. The Wizards defense, which ranks a dismal 29th in the league against small forwards and 30th overall in defensive rating, presents a highly favorable matchup. Their inability to contain perimeter threats and their overall defensive breakdowns create an environment where Barnes should thrive.

His consistent scoring in recent games, with seven instances of scoring 21 or more points in his last ten, establishes a reliable floor above the current prop line. Barnes usage rate remains elite at 28.5%, ensuring he is heavily involved in the Raptors offensive schemes and consistently getting a high volume of shots. He averages 17.5 field goal attempts per game, with a substantial portion of these being self-created, showcasing his ability to generate his own offense. Furthermore, his aggressive drives to the basket are often rewarded, leading to an average of 5.8 free throw attempts per game, providing another avenue for scoring. The projected up-tempo pace of this game, estimated at 104.0 possessions, is also a positive indicator, as Barnes has historically performed better in faster-paced environments, averaging 24.1 points in games exceeding 103 possessions.

His per-minute scoring rate of 0.62 points per minute, combined with his typical minutes projection of 36.8, further solidifies a scoring projection well above the 20.5 line. The historical performance against the Wizards also favors Barnes, with a career average of 23.5 points over eight matchups, including a 28-point outing in their last encounter. This suggests a pattern of dominance against this specific opponent. The combination of his current scoring form, the Wizards league-worst defense, his high usage, and favorable pace metrics creates a strong statistical case for the Over. The projected scoring total of 25.0 points, derived from his recent scoring trends and adjusted for matchup advantages, offers a substantial edge over the 20.5 prop line.

Dereck Lively IIs block prop line of 1.5, offered at plus-money odds of +108 on FanDuel, presents itself as the most compelling value proposition for the Dallas Mavericks. The market pricing implies a required win probability of approximately 48.1% to justify the odds, a threshold that our analysis suggests Lively II comfortably surpasses. The projected win probability for this prop is estimated at 50.5%, yielding a tangible edge of 2.4% over the market.

This discrepancy signals a positive expected value, calculated at $5.04 per $100 wagered, making it a strategically sound bet. While specific recent block statistics were not the primary driver for this selection, the combination of favorable odds, a manageable line, and the perceived market inefficiency points towards a strong opportunity. The Mavericks offensive and defensive schemes, particularly Lively IIs role as a rim protector and defensive anchor, inherently provide him with opportunities for blocks.

Opponents often test the paint against Dallas, and Lively IIs athleticism and timing make him a disruptive force. While other player props may exist, the specific pricing and line for Lively IIs blocks stand out as the most exploitable on the board for the Mavericks. The markets perception of this prop as a near coin-flip, indicated by the odds, is where the value lies if our probability assessment holds true.

This prop warrants a standard unit wager to capitalize on the favorable payout and identified edge.

Isaiah Jacksons Over 1.5 assists prop at -110 odds represents a compelling value play for the Indiana Pacers, primarily driven by the critical absence of their primary ball-handler, Tyrese Haliburton. This injury thrusts Jackson, the starting center, into a more significant playmaking role, making the relatively low 1.5 assist line exceptionally achievable. With Haliburton sidelined, the onus shifts to other players to initiate offense and create scoring opportunities, and Jacksons involvement in these actions is expected to increase substantially. His role as a starting big man in an offense that needs to diversify its playmaking makes this prop attractive. The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers also presents favorable conditions.

Cleveland is reportedly dealing with injuries to key defensive personnel, potentially including Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland. The absence of these defensive anchors, particularly Allens interior presence, could open up more passing lanes for Jackson near the basket and in pick-and-roll scenarios. The Pacers, having recently snapped an eight-game losing streak, are likely to focus on a more balanced offensive attack, which necessitates contributions from players like Jackson in facilitating opportunities for scorers and cutters. His ability to make quick passes off offensive rebounds or as a roll man in the pick-and-roll becomes more crucial in this context. The contextual factors surrounding this prop are overwhelmingly positive.

The absence of Haliburton fundamentally alters the Pacers offensive structure, forcing a redistribution of playmaking duties. Jackson, as the starting center, is positioned to absorb a portion of this responsibility. The Cavaliers injury concerns further enhance Jacksons potential to find open teammates. The low assist line of 1.5, combined with these situational advantages, suggests that the probability of Jackson recording at least two assists is significantly higher than the implied probability of the -110 odds. This prop is not based on Jacksons historical volume as a primary facilitator, but rather on the immediate and significant shift in his role due to team needs and opponent circumstances.