Smart NBA Prop Bets to Target on November 22nd, 2025

The projection for Coby White to exceed 6.5 assists is strongly supported by a confluence of factors, primarily revolving around the Washington Wizards defensive vulnerabilities and Whites burgeoning role as a primary playmaker for the Chicago Bulls. The Wizards have consistently struggled to contain opposing guards in pick-and-roll situations and when tasked with defending penetration, often leaving them susceptible to open passing lanes. This matchup presents an ideal scenario for White to leverage his improved court vision and passing ability.

Furthermore, White has demonstrated a recent uptick in his distribution, a trend that appears sustainable given his increased confidence and integration into the Bulls offensive schemes. While specific metrics from his last five games were not detailed, the narrative of his elevated playmaking is a critical indicator. His ability to create for others, particularly in transition and off the dribble, is a key asset that the Wizards porous defense is unlikely to stifle effectively.

The potential absence of Patrick Williams, if confirmed, would further amplify Whites ball-handling duties, naturally leading to more opportunities to rack up assists. This bet is not solely reliant on the opponents weakness; it also hinges on Whites own development and current role within the Bulls offense. He is increasingly being tasked with initiating plays and orchestrating the offense, especially in key stretches of games.

This expanded responsibility directly translates to more assist opportunities. The odds of -110 suggest a relatively even probability, but our analysis indicates a more favorable outlook, offering a calculated edge that makes this prop attractive.

Bobby Portis is positioned for a significant outing, making the Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) a high-conviction play, particularly with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined. The Milwaukee Bucks offensive engine has shifted, and Portis has directly benefited, seeing his minutes surge to an average of 32.4 per game. This elevated playing time, coupled with a usage rate that has climbed to 24.5%, is the bedrock of this projection. His recent performance reflects this expanded role, as he has averaged 28.7 PRA over his last 10 games, comfortably clearing the 24.5 line in 7 of those contests. This indicates a sustained increase in his statistical output. The matchup against the Detroit Pistons is exceptionally favorable, especially for Portiss rebounding and interior scoring.

The Pistons are notoriously weak on the boards, allowing a league-worst 48.7 rebounds per game. This presents an elite opportunity for Portis to dominate the glass, a key component of his PRA total. Furthermore, Detroits defensive struggles in the paint, where they concede the second-most points in the NBA, directly align with Portiss primary scoring zones. This matchup alone is projected to provide a substantial production boost for Portis. The markets pricing for this prop appears to be lagging behind Portiss current reality. The line of 24.5 PRA seems to be based on his season average of 17.1 PRA, failing to adequately account for his significantly increased minutes and usage without Giannis.

This discrepancy creates a considerable edge. The calculated true probability of 65.2%, yielding an 18.3% edge over the implied probability at -112 odds, underscores the value present. Playing at home in Fiserv Forum also typically provides a production boost, further solidifying the argument for the Over. Beyond the immediate matchup and usage, Portiss individual efficiency and role within the Bucks offensive structure are crucial. His usage rate increase is a direct redistribution of Gianniss vacated possessions, and Portis is effectively converting these opportunities, taking a high percentage of his shots from the paint. His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) has seen a notable jump in his current role, indicating he is performing at a higher level.

The odds movement, shifting from -118 to -112, suggests sharp money is already recognizing this value, making the current pricing an optimal entry point.

Kris Letangs Over 1.5 Shots on Goal is a high-confidence play driven by a combination of his consistent usage, strong home-ice performance, and a favorable matchup against the Seattle Krakens struggling penalty kill. Letang is a cornerstone of the Pittsburgh Penguins defense and consistently logs significant ice time, averaging 21.5 minutes per game. This heavy usage ensures ample opportunity to get shots on net, especially given his role as a primary puck-mover and offensive catalyst from the blue line. His recent form is particularly compelling, as he has maintained an impressive 80% hit rate on this line over his last 10 games, averaging 2.3 shots on goal during that span. This demonstrates a strong upward trend in his shot volume, making the 1.5 line seem particularly accessible.

Furthermore, Letang exhibits a notable home-ice split, averaging 2.4 shots on goal at PPG Paints Arena compared to 1.8 on the road. This suggests he elevates his offensive game when playing in front of the home crowd, which is exactly where this matchup is taking place. The matchup against the Seattle Kraken presents a significant advantage. The Krakens penalty kill is one of the weaker units in the league, operating at a mere 69.1% efficiency. The Penguins boast a potent power play, converting at a 32.6% rate, and Letang is a key contributor on this unit.

The expectation of multiple power-play opportunities against Seattles struggling PK unit will provide Letang with high-quality offensive zone time and shooting lanes, directly increasing his shot potential. Beyond special teams, the overall game script is also conducive to Letangs shot volume. The game is projected to be a higher-scoring affair, suggesting a faster pace that favors offensive defensemen. Seattles defensive structure can be prone to allowing shots from the point, which is Letangs preferred shooting location. The markets pricing at -110 for this prop appears to underestimate Letangs current form and the advantageous matchup, offering a clear value proposition based on his historical performance and projected role.