Expert NCAAF Prop Bet Analysis for September 6th, 2025

Kevin Jennings is in an exceptionally strong position to exceed his passing yardage prop of 268.5. With only 9 yards remaining and the game actively in progress, this bet presents an almost guaranteed outcome. Jennings has been highly efficient in the current contest, completing 73.3% of his passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns, averaging an impressive 8.7 yards per attempt. This performance clearly indicates his ability to exploit the Baylor defense, which has struggled to contain him thus far. The game script heavily favors continued passing for SMU.

Leading 33-17, the Mustangs are in a position to maintain offensive control and extend their lead through the air. The projection of an additional 5-7 pass attempts for Jennings provides ample opportunity to accumulate the minimal yardage required. Even with a moderate blowout potential, Jennings is expected to remain on the field for a significant portion of the remaining snaps, ensuring he has the chances needed to clear the prop line. The matchup against Baylors defense is a clear advantage for Jennings. They have already allowed him to amass 260 yards, demonstrating a distinct vulnerability in their secondary.

Jennings ability to consistently gain yards per attempt, which mirrors Baylors defensive struggles in this regard, highlights his effectiveness in this specific contest. His high usage rate, commanding nearly all of SMUs quarterback snaps and contributing to a substantial number of pass attempts, further solidifies his role as the primary offensive driver. The stability of the betting line for Jennings passing yards prop suggests market confidence in his performance. Coupled with the absence of any reported injuries, Jennings is healthy and poised to continue his effective passing display. The games moderate pace has already generated numerous offensive opportunities, and SMUs balanced offensive scheme is well-suited to capitalize on this tempo, further supporting Jennings ability to rack up the necessary yards.

LeVeon Moss is positioned for a significant scoring opportunity in this matchup against Utah State. Texas A&M enters as a substantial favorite, which inherently creates a game script that favors a heavy dose of the run game, particularly as they build and protect a lead. This projected blowout scenario is a critical factor, as it is expected to lead to an increased workload for Moss, especially in the second half when clock management becomes paramount. The matchup against Utah States run defense is exceptionally favorable. The Aggies rank a dismal 117th nationally in run defense, allowing a considerable number of rushing yards per game.

This defensive weakness presents Moss with abundant opportunities to find open running lanes and break through for significant gains, directly enhancing his touchdown potential. His role as a primary candidate for scoring is underscored by his prominent Anytime TD odds, indicating high confidence from oddsmakers in his ability to find the end zone. Moss is expected to see a surge in goal-line opportunities and overall carries throughout the game. As Texas A&M asserts its dominance, they will likely lean on their ground game to extend drives and secure points. His usage rate is anticipated to increase in these high-leverage situations, making him a reliable option to punch in a touchdown.

Furthermore, his projected playing time is expected to expand, especially in the second half, ensuring he remains on the field during crucial scoring opportunities. The betting lines for Mosss Anytime TD have remained stable, reflecting consistent market confidence in his scoring potential. This stability suggests that sharp bettors also recognize the value in this prop. Crucially, Moss is fully healthy, meaning there are no physical limitations that would hinder his performance or expected workload. This combination of a favorable matchup, a projected blowout script, and a healthy, featured running back makes this a highly compelling bet.

Jahmyr Gibbs presents a compelling value proposition on the Anytime Touchdown prop at -115 odds. His versatile role within the Detroit Lions potent offense, coupled with an anticipated increase in touches due to Sione Vakis absence, positions him for significant scoring opportunities. Gibbs demonstrated remarkable scoring ability last season, accumulating 11 total touchdowns (10 rushing, 1 receiving) across 15 games, averaging an impressive 0.73 touchdowns per game. This consistent threat to find the end zone, particularly in red zone situations, makes him a prime candidate to score.

The absence of running back Sione Vaki is a direct catalyst for enhanced opportunities for Gibbs. Vakis vacated touches, estimated between 5-8 per game, are projected to be redistributed, with Gibbs expected to absorb 3-4 of these additional carries or targets. This increased workload directly boosts his chances for red zone involvement and, consequently, his touchdown potential. Gibbs is projected to handle a substantial 55-60% of the Lions running back touches and command 70-75% of offensive snaps, ensuring he is a focal point of the offense.

The matchup against the Green Bay Packers defense, which ranked approximately 16th against the run last season, presents a middle-of-the-pack unit that Gibbs can exploit. His dual-threat capabilities allow him to attack the Packers both on the ground and through the air, particularly against linebackers in open space. The Lions offensive line is expected to create favorable running lanes, further enhancing Gibbs ability to gain yards before contact and get into scoring position. As a Week 1 divisional game, a competitive and closely-contested script is highly probable, ensuring key offensive players like Gibbs remain heavily involved regardless of the score.

The risk of a blowout is assessed as low, meaning Gibbs should maintain a significant snap count throughout the game. With the Lions offensive tendencies suggesting a balanced run-pass split, Gibbs is positioned for a healthy number of total touches, maximizing his scoring potential.