Value NFL & NBA Prop Bets: November 7th, 2025 Opportunities

The decision to target Patrick Mahomes for an Anytime Touchdown prop is rooted in a confluence of factors that create significant upside. The Kansas City Chiefs offense, a perennial powerhouse, continues to operate at an elite level, averaging over 31 points per game in their last five contests. This consistent scoring ability creates a high-leverage environment for all offensive players, including the quarterback.

Crucially, the absence of primary running back Isiah Pacheco fundamentally alters the Chiefs offensive calculus, particularly in short-yardage and red-zone situations. Pachecos vacated touches necessitate an increased reliance on other playmakers, and Mahomes dual-threat capability makes him a prime candidate to absorb some of those goal-line opportunities. His proven ability to extend plays with his legs and make decisive runs when the opportunity arises is well-documented.

Furthermore, the matchup against the Denver Broncos presents a distinct advantage. The Broncos defense, while showing flashes, has vulnerabilities, particularly in the secondary. The critical injury to star cornerback Patrick Surtain II further compromises their ability to shut down the Chiefs aerial attack, likely forcing them into defensive schemes that could open up lanes for Mahomes on designed runs or scrambles.

This is compounded by Mahomes extensive experience playing in Denvers altitude, a factor that can sometimes impact visiting teams but is a familiar element for the Chiefs signal-caller. The market may be overreacting to Mahomes recent performance dip prior to the bye week, creating an opportunity for value seekers who understand the expected post-bye week reset and the adjusted offensive strategy due to Pachecos injury.

Scottie Barnes Over 1.5 blocks prop presents a compelling opportunity, largely driven by his exceptional defensive production early in the season and a highly favorable matchup. Barnes is currently averaging an elite 4.0 blocks per game, a figure that significantly surpasses the 1.5 block threshold. This sustained high level of defensive activity establishes a strong floor for this prop, suggesting that clearing the line is not an outlier performance but rather a consistent trend.

His defensive impact is not limited to raw block numbers; he actively contests shots and alters offensive schemes, making him a constant threat on that end of the court. The matchup against the Atlanta Hawks is particularly advantageous. The Hawks interior defense is not a strength, and their offensive style often involves drives to the basket and contested mid-range shots.

This creates ample opportunities for a disruptive defender like Barnes to accumulate blocks. Furthermore, Barnes maintains a stable and significant role in the Toronto Raptors rotation, averaging approximately 35 minutes per game. This consistent court time ensures he is present for a majority of defensive possessions, maximizing his chances to record blocks.

The anticipated fast pace of games in Atlanta also plays into this props favor, as a quicker tempo generally leads to more shot attempts from both teams, thereby increasing the volume of defensive plays and potential block opportunities for Barnes.

The proposition of Ryan Fitzgerald exceeding 1.5 field goals is supported by a confluence of factors pointing towards a high-volume kicking day for the New Orleans Saints. The Saints offense has been hampered by significant injuries to their offensive line, a unit crucial for sustained drives and goal-line success. This decimated offensive line directly translates to increased struggles in converting drives into touchdowns, forcing the Saints to rely more heavily on their kicker, Fitzgerald, to put points on the board. Fitzgerald has demonstrated consistent usage, averaging 1.75 field goal attempts per game over his last four contests, indicating that the team is willing to turn to him when drives stall.

Adding to this, the Saints have shown a pattern of reaching the opponents 30-yard line or closer on numerous occasions recently, only to stall and settle for field goals. This red zone inefficiency is a key indicator for the Over prop on field goals. The matchup against the Carolina Panthers presents a defense that, while capable of pressure, is not particularly strong in preventing drives from advancing into scoring position. The low projected game total of 40.5 points further suggests a defensive struggle, where touchdowns will be at a premium, thus increasing the value of field goals.

The Saints implied team score in the range of 15-18 points strongly supports the likelihood of Fitzgerald attempting multiple field goals to reach that total. Historically, Fitzgerald has a solid track record with this prop, hitting the Over in 55.6% of the Saints games this season, including in two of their last three contests. This recent form, combined with the dire offensive line situation and the games scoring environment, makes this a high-conviction play. The significant edge calculated over the market line underscores the value proposition.

While a blowout is a potential concern given the projected spread, the Saints offense is expected to be on the field enough to provide Fitzgerald with opportunities, even in a losing effort.