Value NFL & NBA Prop Bets: November 13th, 2025 Opportunities

Our analysis for Marcus Mariotas passing attempts prop reveals a significant lack of value, primarily stemming from severe data limitations and considerable blowout risk. The projection of 27.8 attempts relies solely on the Washington Commanders team average, offering a razor-thin 0.3-attempt edge over the line. This minimal advantage is further eroded by a projected negative game script, which, while potentially increasing fourth-quarter pass rates by 8-12%, is overshadowed by a substantial 38.2% probability of a moderate blowout. This blowout scenario significantly dampens volume, pulling the adjusted projection down to a concerning 25.1 attempts, indicating the line is priced efficiently based on available team averages.

The lack of individual 2025 statistics for Mariota makes this projection highly speculative. The Commanders team average of 27.8 attempts per game serves as the only baseline, and the absence of Mariotas specific efficiency data renders any projection volatile. Furthermore, the projected win probability of 52.8% offers negligible value against the implied probability of the -110 odds. The primary mechanism for hitting the Over is the potential for a negative game script, which typically boosts fourth-quarter pass rates.

However, the moderate blowout probability of 38.2%, derived from a 6.7-point spread, is a more potent force, projected to reduce fourth-quarter snaps and consequently lower the attempts projection to 24.7. The pace of play environment is neutral, with the Commanders operating at 57.9 plays per game and the Dolphins at 55.9 plays per game. This lack of a significant pace advantage offers no substantial boost to overall volume. The reliance on team-level data for Mariotas projection, coupled with the high volatility introduced by blowout risk, leads to an extremely low confidence score of 3/10.

The value assessment is consequently poor, with a value rating of 2/10, underscoring the insufficient data for a confident recommendation. The minimal edge of 0.3 attempts and a win probability barely above the implied odds further solidify the decision to avoid this prop.

Garrett Wilsons receiving yards prop presents a compelling opportunity for value, driven by his elite target share and the Jets projected offensive approach against the Patriots. Wilson commands a dominant 28% target share, consistently translating to an average of 7.8 targets per game, providing a reliable volume floor. His snap share remains exceptionally high at 91% over the last four contests, confirming his indispensable role in the Jets offense. This consistent usage is crucial for exceeding the 75.5-yard threshold. The matchup against the Patriots defense, while statistically strong overall, presents a specific vulnerability that Wilson can exploit.

While the Patriots rank fifth in the league against the pass, allowing only 198.5 passing yards per game, they have shown a propensity to give up yardage to slot receivers. They allow 7.2 yards per route run (YPRR) from the slot, and Wilson runs a significant 65% of his routes from this alignment. This positional advantage, combined with the Patriots low blitz rate (18%), suggests the quarterback will have adequate time to find Wilson on longer-developing routes. Despite a minor knee sprain, Wilsons full participation in practice on Thursday and Friday indicates he is ready for a full workload. The Jets offense is heavily reliant on Wilson, and they will likely push his usage unless the injury significantly worsens.

Furthermore, the Jets red zone inefficiency (48% conversion rate) favors yardage props over touchdown props, as drives often stall, requiring sustained yardage gains to keep pace. The implied team total of 22.5 points suggests the Jets will need to move the ball consistently through the air to achieve this scoring output. In games with a total below 45, Wilson has demonstrated his ability to produce, averaging 78.2 receiving yards. This historical performance in tighter contests further bolsters confidence in his ability to exceed 75.5 yards. The combination of elite opportunity, a favorable matchup against a specific defensive weakness, and his proven production in similar game environments makes this Over bet a strong consideration.

Evan Mobley is poised for a significant statistical outing, making the Over 24.5 Points + Assists an exceptional value play, primarily due to the substantial impact of key absences. The simultaneous unavailability of Donovan Mitchell (30.4 PPG, 5.4 APG) and Jarrett Allen (16.5 PPG) vacates a massive 46.9 points and 7.3 assists from the Cavaliers offense. This redistribution of usage projects to elevate Mobleys role to that of the primary offensive hub, driving his usage rate to an elite 33.7%. Mobleys projected minutes are set to surge to 39.2 MPG, a significant increase that will allow him ample opportunity to accumulate points and assists. This extended playing time is crucial for exceeding the 24.5 combined total.

The matchup against the Toronto Raptors frontcourt defense is also highly favorable. The Raptors rank 23rd in the NBA in defending centers, allowing a high 52.3% field goal percentage to the position. Mobleys efficiency within five feet, where he shoots an elite 72.3%, is perfectly suited to exploit this defensive weakness. The current line of 24.5 P+A is severely mispriced, failing to adequately account for the injury context. This creates a substantial mathematical edge of 27.4% over the market.

Mobleys baseline performance at home further supports this projection; he averages 27.1 P+A at Quicken Loans Arena this season, indicating strong home-court domination even before the increased usage. Furthermore, Mobleys recent form has been trending upward, averaging 28.9 P+A over his last four games. This already exceeds the prop line even without the full impact of the absent stars. The referee assignment of Scott Fosters crew, known for calling a higher number of fouls, also bodes well for Mobley, potentially leading to more free throw attempts and an increased P+A output. The game script is also favorable, with a low blowout probability and an expected competitive contest, ensuring starters play significant minutes throughout the game.