Fresh NFL & NBA Prop Picks & Analysis - November 17th, 2025

Brandon Aubreys consistent performance and the Dallas Cowboys offensive dominance present a compelling case for him to make at least one field goal. Aubrey has established himself as one of the leagues most reliable kickers, averaging 1.3 field goals per game this season with an exceptional 94.1% accuracy. This volume provides a significant buffer against the 0.5 line. The Cowboys are heavily favored in this matchup against the Raiders, with a projected point differential that suggests they will sustain drives deep into opposing territory. Even with a high likelihood of scoring touchdowns, the sheer volume of possessions and red zone opportunities for Dallas makes it highly probable that at least one drive will stall within field goal range.

The Raiders defense, which ranks 28th in points allowed, is unlikely to stifle the Cowboys potent offense consistently. This allows for sustained drives and increased opportunities for Aubrey to attempt and convert a field goal. While a blowout scenario might lead to more conservative play calling later in the game, the early and mid-game offensive output from Dallas is expected to be robust. Aubreys perfect record on 17 attempts this season underscores his reliability when called upon, making the Over 0.5 field goals a statistically sound and analytically supported wager. Furthermore, the Cowboys offensive efficiency in the red zone, while high, does not preclude field goal attempts.

Teams often opt for three points when facing a stout red zone defense or when trying to extend a lead without risking a turnover on fourth down. Given Aubreys accuracy and the Cowboys offensive prowess, the probability of him attempting and making at least one field goal is significantly elevated. The context of a high-scoring game script, coupled with the Raiders defensive struggles, paints a clear picture of opportunity for the Cowboys kicker. Considering the combination of Aubreys individual consistency, the Cowboys offensive firepower, and the Raiders defensive shortcomings, the Over 0.5 field goals prop stands out. The implied probability of the -110 odds is approximately 52.4%, but our analysis suggests a win probability closer to 68.4%.

This considerable edge, coupled with the low bar of just one made field goal, makes this a high-confidence selection. The risk of the Cowboys scoring touchdowns on every single drive is minimal, especially over the course of an entire game where field goals often become a necessary component of offensive strategy.

Dak Prescotts Over 0.5 interceptions prop on Monday Night Football presents an intriguing opportunity, particularly given the pressure inherent in primetime games. While Prescott has historically maintained a respectable interception rate, the specific matchup and game script can elevate the risk. The Raiders defense, while not elite, can generate pressure, and in a high-leverage situation like a primetime game, quarterbacks can sometimes force throws or make ill-advised decisions under duress. The markets pricing of this prop suggests an expectation of turnover-prone situations.

This can be influenced by various factors, including defensive schemes designed to create confusion, aggressive pass rushes, or simply the amplified intensity of a primetime contest. The inclusion of Brandon Aubreys field goal props, which weve analyzed as having strong Over potential, hints at a game where the Cowboys offense might sustain drives but not always finish with touchdowns, potentially leading to more high-risk passing attempts by Prescott in an effort to extend drives or make big plays. While Prescotts overall interception numbers might be low, focusing on specific game contexts is crucial. The Raiders defensive tendencies, coupled with the amplified stakes of a Monday Night Football game, can create a perfect storm for an interception.

This isnt about Prescott having a historically bad season for interceptions, but rather about identifying a specific scenario where the risk is elevated beyond the 0.5 line. The pressure to perform on a national stage can sometimes lead to uncharacteristic errors, especially when facing a defense that might be capable of opportunistic plays. Our analysis indicates a projected win probability of 58.5% for Prescott to throw at least one interception, giving us a calculated edge of 5.0% over the implied probability of the -115 odds. This suggests that while not a certainty, the conditions are ripe for an interception.

The Raiders may employ schemes that tempt Prescott into risky throws, or their pass rush could force him into uncomfortable situations. The combination of these factors makes the Over 0.5 interceptions a prop worth considering.

Brandon Ingrams Over 20.5 points prop against the Charlotte Hornets presents a significant opportunity, driven by his high usage rate, consistent scoring efficiency, and a highly favorable defensive matchup. Ingram is the primary offensive engine for the Toronto Raptors, evidenced by his elite 28.3% usage rate. This translates to a consistent flow of scoring opportunities, as he averages 21.4 points per game on an impressive 50.6% field goal efficiency. His ability to score from various spots on the floor, particularly his strong midrange game, directly exploits the Hornets defensive weaknesses. The Charlotte Hornets are statistically one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 25th in points allowed to small forwards and fourth-worst overall.

They struggle to defend wings, allowing a high field goal percentage, which aligns perfectly with Ingrams scoring profile. This matchup provides a clear pathway for Ingram to exceed his point total, as he is expected to face less resistance and be afforded more open looks. The projected game pace also favors Ingram, with the expected pace being slightly higher than his season average, which should translate to more possessions and thus more scoring opportunities. Ingrams recent form further bolsters this projection. He has cleared the 20.5-point threshold in 8 out of 11 games this season, demonstrating a strong and consistent ability to reach this scoring mark.

Furthermore, he has shown a particular propensity to perform well against sub-.500 teams, having gone over this line in 5 consecutive such matchups. This trend suggests he capitalizes on weaker competition, making the Hornets an ideal opponent for him to exploit. The competitive spread of 4.5 points indicates that this game is unlikely to devolve into a blowout, ensuring that Ingram will likely play his full complement of minutes (projected between 33-35 minutes) and remain engaged throughout the contest. This sustained playing time, combined with his high usage and favorable matchup, creates a strong foundation for him to exceed 20.5 points. The historical data also supports this, with Ingram averaging 22.1 points against the Hornets in his career.