Expert-Grade NBA & NFL Prop Selections: November 18th, 2025

Jerami Grant is in a prime position to exceed his point total of 21.5 against the Phoenix Suns. His recent scoring surge, averaging 23.8 points over his last seven games, demonstrates a clear uptick in offensive aggression and efficiency. This elevated performance is particularly potent against a Suns defense that struggles mightily against power forwards, ranking 27th in the league in points allowed to the position. Grants ability to score from multiple levels, especially in the mid-range where Phoenix is vulnerable, combined with his high usage rate of 30.1%, ensures he will be heavily involved in the Trail Blazers offensive schemes. The matchup presents a significant advantage for Grant.

He is expected to draw coverage from a combination of smaller wings and slower bigs, creating consistent mismatches that he can exploit through isolation plays. The Suns defensive scheme allows the fifth most isolation points in the NBA, a direct benefit to Grants offensive style. Furthermore, the Trail Blazers offensive structure, with a significant portion of Grants scoring possessions being self-created or assisted by non-starters, highlights his role as the primary offensive engine. This is not a situation where his shot volume will be suppressed by other high-volume scorers. Grants minutes projection remains robust, averaging 35.5 minutes over his last ten games.

With no back-to-back concerns, a projection of 35-37 minutes is highly probable, providing ample opportunity to reach the over. His per-minute scoring rate of 0.67 points per minute projects him to score around 23.5 points even at the lower end of his minute range. The coaching staffs commitment to maximizing his court time in competitive home games against Western Conference rivals further solidifies this projection. The value is further enhanced by the 4.0% edge over the markets implied probability, indicating a statistically sound play. Advanced metrics support this assessment, with Grants True Shooting Percentage at 58.8% this month and his Points Per Possession in isolation plays at 1.08, ranking him in the 85th percentile.

His historical success rate for hitting the over 21.5 points is also strong, achieving it in 68% of his games this season, and jumping to 75% against teams ranked in the bottom 10 defensively against power forwards. This confluence of recent form, favorable matchup, consistent usage, and historical success paints a clear picture of an advantageous betting opportunity.

Cade Cunninghams rebound prop of 4.5 presents an exceptional value opportunity, bolstered by a significant 16.2% edge derived from a projected 62.7% true probability against a 46.5% implied probability. His season average of 5.4 rebounds per game provides a solid foundation, offering a comfortable cushion over the line. The expected increase in his court time, projected between 36-38 minutes, is a critical factor. This elevated playing time is anticipated due to a competitive game script where the Pistons are expected to be challenged, and potentially due to the absence of teammates like Harris and Thompson, which would naturally increase Cunninghams overall responsibilities and court presence. The matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, while not defensively elite, presents a favorable rebounding environment.

The absence of Trae Young, the Hawks primary ball-handler and offensive catalyst, can disrupt their defensive coordination and lead to more contested possessions and subsequent rebounding chances for the opposition. Cunninghams role as the primary offensive engine for the Pistons means he is consistently involved in possessions, whether initiating offense or finishing plays, which naturally leads to more opportunities to secure rebounds. The projected game flow is expected to hover around 100 possessions, a neutral pace that doesnt significantly inflate or deflate rebounding opportunities. This means Cunninghams established rebounding rate should translate effectively. The fact that the Pistons are favored suggests a competitive contest where starters will play their usual minutes, mitigating the risk of a blowout that could truncate playing time.

This competitive game script is crucial for ensuring Cunningham has the full complement of minutes needed to achieve the over. Furthermore, the potential absence of key teammates like Tobias Harris and Ausar Thompson significantly amplifies Cunninghams role. With more ball-handling duties and extended court time, his involvement in rebounding situations is bound to increase. The value proposition is further enhanced by the +115 odds, which are rated a 9/10 confidence level due to the substantial edge and favorable circumstances. While rebounds carry inherent variance, Cunninghams consistent production and the projected game circumstances strongly support exceeding this modest line.

Brock Bowers is poised for a significant receiving yardage output against the Dallas Cowboys, making the Over 75.5 yards a compelling bet. His Week 8 performance, where he exploded for 127 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, is a strong indicator of his burgeoning role and capability within the Raiders offense. This elite outing wasnt an anomaly but rather a testament to his talent and the offensive schemes willingness to feature him. The Raiders are expected to lean heavily on their passing game in this matchup, particularly at home in Las Vegas, which will naturally funnel targets towards their key playmakers, including Bowers. The most critical factor favoring this bet is the compromised state of the Dallas Cowboys secondary.

With significant injuries plaguing their defensive backfield, the Raiders receiving corps, and specifically Bowers, are likely to face coverage that is less disciplined and more susceptible to breakdowns. This creates an environment where Bowers can exploit matchups and generate substantial yardage. His established role as the primary red zone target also signifies his importance in the teams offensive strategy, suggesting he will be a focal point in both short and intermediate passing game scenarios. Beyond the individual matchup, the projected game script plays a crucial role. The Raiders will need to keep pace with the potent Cowboys offense, which necessitates a pass-heavy approach.

This increases the volume of passing plays and, consequently, the number of targets available for Bowers. His high snap count, driven by his critical role as the teams primary receiving threat, ensures he will be on the field for a significant portion of these offensive snaps. The combination of increased opportunity and favorable matchups against a weakened defense forms the bedrock of this recommendation. Advanced situational analysis points towards a game where the Raiders will be forced to throw to stay competitive. This dynamic, coupled with Bowers recent surge in production and his established role as a top target, creates a scenario where exceeding 75.5 receiving yards is highly probable.

His ability to generate yards after the catch and his impact in the red zone further enhance his potential to reach this yardage total. The projected 60.0% win probability and 7.6% edge underscore the statistical merit of this selection.