Star Player NFL & NBA Props: November 20th, 2025

Josh Allens passing yardage prop presents a compelling opportunity on November 20th, 2025, as he faces the Houston Texans. Allen has consistently demonstrated his ability to produce at a high level, particularly in spotlight games. His recent performances in primetime slots have been exceptional, averaging 278.5 passing yards over his last three such appearances. This indicates a tendency to elevate his game when the stakes are higher and the national spotlight is on. The matchup against the Texans defense is a significant factor.

Houstons pass defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 265.0 passing yards per game, which ranks them 24th in the league. This vulnerability suggests that Allen and the Bills aerial attack should find ample success through the air. The Bills offensive philosophy under their coaching staff leans heavily on the pass, with a consistent 62% pass rate in neutral game scripts. This high volume ensures that Allen will have numerous opportunities to rack up yardage. The current betting line of 250.5 passing yards appears to be set below the projected median outcome, which our models estimate at 275.0 yards.

This discrepancy creates a tangible edge for bettors. While the short week for Thursday Night Football can sometimes lead to disjointed offensive execution, Allens talent and the Bills established offensive rhythm should help mitigate this risk. Furthermore, the forecast for Buffalo in late November is currently favorable, reducing concerns about weather impacting his passing efficiency. Considering Allens proven track record, the favorable defensive matchup, and the Bills commitment to a pass-heavy offense, the Over on his passing yards is a well-supported play. The projected outcome significantly exceeds the current line, offering value that is too substantial to ignore.

Daniel Jones passing attempts prop for November 20th, 2025, against the Kansas City Chiefs, presents a significant opportunity due to a confluence of recent performance trends and matchup advantages. Jones has been operating with a high volume of pass attempts recently, averaging 38.5 attempts over his last three games. This elevated usage suggests a strategic shift or reliance on the passing game that provides a strong floor for this prop. The matchup against the Chiefs defense is particularly exploitable for passing volume. Kansas City ranks 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and, more critically for this prop, concedes an average of 37.0 attempts to opposing quarterbacks.

This indicates a defensive scheme that often finds itself on its heels, forcing them to defend the pass extensively. Compounding this is the impact of key injuries in the Chiefs secondary, specifically to players like Ward and Suamataia. These absences significantly compromise their coverage integrity, potentially forcing them to allow even more high-volume passing plays. Furthermore, the coaching tendencies of Shane Steichen, particularly when facing high-powered offenses like the Chiefs, favor an aggressive, pass-heavy attack. Analysis suggests a willingness to maintain passing volume to keep opponents off balance, rather than immediately reverting to a conservative game plan.

This offensive scheme is designed to exploit vulnerable secondaries. The betting market also reflects this expectation, with line movement indicating sharp money is backing the Over, a strong signal of professional confidence in high passing volume. While adverse weather or an overwhelming early lead for the Colts could theoretically shift the game script, the current indicators point towards a game where the Colts will need to pass to keep pace. The Chiefs offensive capabilities necessitate a strong aerial attack from the Colts, and Jones recent volume suggests he is the focal point of that strategy. The offensive lines ability to protect Jones against the Chiefs pass rush is also a critical factor, and their above-average protection rate of 28% provides a solid foundation for sustained passing.

Myles Turners block prop presents a compelling value play on November 20th, 2025, as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Philadelphia 76ers. Turners established role as the primary rim protector for the Bucks is the foundational element of this bet. His consistent positioning near the basket ensures he is consistently in a position to contest shots and accumulate blocks, especially against an interior-focused offense. The matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers is particularly advantageous for Turners block potential.

The 76ers boast a high-scoring offense, averaging 118.1 points per game. This offensive firepower translates to more shot attempts and, consequently, more opportunities for Turner to make defensive plays. Their tendency to attack the rim and operate in the paint directly feeds into Turners strengths as a shot-blocker. The expected fast pace of the game, with both teams operating around a 100 pace, further amplifies the number of possessions and defensive chances available.

The odds of +108 for Over 1.5 Blocks offer a calculated edge of 2.6% over the implied probability. While blocks are inherently a high-variance statistic, the combination of Turners role, the opponents offensive tendencies, and the games projected pace significantly increases his probability of exceeding this threshold. The fact that this is a home game for the Bucks also provides a slight boost, as home court advantage often correlates with improved defensive focus and energy, typically contributing a 3-5% performance enhancement. While foul trouble is always a consideration for big men, Turners ability to maintain his defensive presence throughout games, coupled with the high volume of defensive opportunities, makes this prop attractive.

The analysis confirms a true probability of 50.7%, indicating that the market is undervaluing his potential for multiple blocks in this specific matchup. The value is further amplified when considering the alternative line of -144 for the same prop, highlighting the mispricing at +108.