Top NHL & NBA & NFL Prop Betting Picks: November 17th, 2025

This selection hinges on Taylor Halls recent surge in shot volume and his crucial role within the Carolina Hurricanes offensive structure. Hall is currently averaging an impressive 3.2 shots on goal over his last five contests, a clear uptick from his season average and a trend that has seen him exceed the 2.5 SOG line in 80% of those recent outings. This demonstrates a player in strong form and actively seeking scoring opportunities. His consistent deployment on the primary power-play unit (PP1) is a significant factor, especially against a Boston Bruins penalty kill that has shown recent signs of vulnerability, allowing an average of 8.5 shots against per 60 minutes of PK time.

The matchup against the Boston Bruins, a divisional rival, often elevates the intensity and encourages higher shot attempts from key players. While the Bruins possess a strong defensive unit overall, they have historically allowed a slightly higher volume of shots from the left wing position, where Hall primarily operates. Furthermore, the Hurricanes are known for their high-paced offensive attack at home, a tempo that tends to amplify shot generation for their top-line forwards. Halls ice time remains robust at an average of 17:30 over his last five games, indicating no concerns about usage or load management, and his offensive zone start percentage is consistently high, ensuring ample opportunities to get shots off.

The Hurricanes home ice advantage also plays a role, as the team exhibits a positive split in shot attempts per 60 minutes when playing on home ice, driving the overall game pace. Halls personal SOG average is also higher in home games (2.9) compared to road games (2.5), further supporting the Over projection. The market has kept the SOG line stable at 2.5 despite Halls recent production, suggesting a potential inefficiency that our models aim to exploit. Our proprietary projection models forecast Halls median SOG at 3.1, presenting a solid delta against the sportsbook line and a projected win probability of 58.5%, which translates to a valuable edge.

Considering these factors – Halls red-hot shot volume, his vital role on the PP1 unit, a favorable matchup against a potentially vulnerable penalty kill, and the Hurricanes home-ice offensive prowess – the Over 2.5 Shots on Goal presents a compelling betting opportunity. The calculated edge and value assessment confirm this as a high-conviction play.

Nikola Jokics elite playmaking ability makes the Over 8.5 Assists a compelling proposition against the Chicago Bulls. Jokic consistently operates as the primary facilitator for the Denver Nuggets, and his assist numbers reflect this. Over his last 10 contests, he has maintained an exceptional average of 9.8 assists per game, showcasing his sustained high-level passing volume. This consistent performance provides a strong floor for clearing the 8.5 assist line.

Historically, Jokic has dominated matchups against the Chicago Bulls, averaging an impressive 10.2 assists per game across his career encounters with them. This historical data is not merely anecdotal; it suggests a fundamental mismatch in how the Bulls defensive schemes have struggled to contain elite passing centers like Jokic. This consistent success against the same opponent reinforces the likelihood of him reaching or exceeding the 8.5 assist threshold. The injury status of key teammates, particularly Jamal Murray, is a critical variable that could further amplify Jokics assist opportunities.

If Murray is sidelined, Jokic often assumes a greater ball-handling burden, which naturally leads to more passing opportunities as he orchestrates the offense. While this is still being verified, any increased responsibility for Jokic typically translates to more assists. His usage rate remains exceptionally high, ensuring he is heavily involved in nearly every offensive possession, providing ample chances to rack up assists. While a potential blowout scenario for the Nuggets could theoretically limit fourth-quarter minutes, Jokics typical involvement in creating offense even in lopsided games suggests he can reach his assist total before the game is decided.

The combination of his current elite passing form, a historically favorable matchup against the Bulls, and the potential for increased playmaking duties due to teammate injuries makes the Over 8.5 Assists a strong value play.

Betting the Over on Geno Smiths passing attempts at 32.5 is a strategically sound play, driven by a projected trailing game script for the Las Vegas Raiders and a favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Our analysis indicates a projected 41.9 attempts for Smith, presenting a substantial 28.9% analytical edge. The Raiders are heavily favored to be playing from behind, which historically compels teams to adopt a pass-heavy approach to try and catch up. Smiths recent performance provides a solid floor for this bet. He has averaged 31.7 passing attempts over his last three games, placing him squarely in the vicinity of the 32.5 line even before accounting for situational factors.

The Raiders tendency to increase pass attempts by approximately 26% when trailing by seven or more points is a critical data point. This historical tendency, combined with the projected game script, suggests Smith will be throwing the ball frequently throughout the contest, even into garbage time. The matchup against the Dallas Cowboys pass defense, which ranks 16th in the NFL allowing 235.4 yards per game, offers a degree of passability. The potential absence of key Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs due to injury further amplifies the opportunity for Smith and the Raiders passing game. Diggss potential inactivity creates a significant exploitable weakness in the Cowboys secondary, encouraging a higher volume of pass attempts.

Even if Diggs plays, Smith has historically performed well against top-20 pass defenses, averaging 33.2 attempts in such scenarios. The projected spread movement, with the Cowboys moving from -3 to -3.5, further supports the notion that the Raiders will be trailing. This scenario, paradoxically, bolsters the Over on Smiths passing attempts, as catch-up mode necessitates increased aerial attack. Despite a recent quad contusion, Smiths snap count is expected to remain at 100%, and the game script will likely demand even more passing volume. The combination of his current usage, the projected trailing game script, a vulnerable opposing pass defense, and the statistical edge makes this a high-confidence selection.