Value NBA & NHL Prop Bets: November 22nd, 2025 Opportunities

Nikola Jokic is poised for a dominant scoring performance against the Sacramento Kings. His home scoring splits are exceptional, averaging 29.3 points per game in Denver, significantly exceeding the 25.5-point line. The Kings defense is particularly vulnerable to opposing centers, allowing a concerning 53.2% field goal percentage. This matchup advantage is amplified by the Kings being on the second night of a back-to-back, traveling to play at altitude, which typically imposes a defensive penalty of around 3.2 points. Jokics consistent efficiency, evidenced by his 70.3% true shooting percentage, allows him to exploit this defensive weakness effectively.

Jokics recent form further bolsters this projection. He has cleared the 25.5-point mark in 8 of his last 10 games, showcasing an 80% hit rate. This strong scoring trend is not an anomaly; against bottom-10 defenses, he elevates his average to 28.1 points per game. The Nuggets offense, operating at a +7.2 net rating with Jokic on the floor, ensures he receives ample high-quality scoring opportunities. The expected game pace, slightly above league average, also contributes to a higher volume of possessions for Jokic to accumulate points.

The market has recognized this potential, with the line moving from 24.5 to 25.5 points. This upward movement, coupled with sharp money indicating a strong lean towards the Over, validates the projected edge. Despite the Kings potential to deploy double-teams, Jokics ability to score efficiently and facilitate from the post, where he draws significant defensive attention, mitigates this risk. His clutch usage rate also spikes, indicating he is heavily involved in critical scoring moments. While theres a slight risk of an early blowout impacting minutes, Jokics confidence level for playing 30+ minutes remains high at 73%.

The combination of his elite home scoring, the Kings defensive fatigue and inherent weaknesses against centers, and his consistent scoring form makes the Over 25.5 points a compelling bet with a significant edge.

Malik Monks assist prop presents a significant value opportunity, driven by his expanded role due to key injuries to DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. With these primary playmakers sidelined, Monk has absorbed a considerable portion of the ball-handling duties, increasing his usage rate from a typical 18% to an estimated 24%. This elevated responsibility directly translates to more opportunities to create for his teammates, making the Over 2.5 assists a highly probable outcome. Monks recent performance strongly supports this projection. He has recorded three or more assists in four of his last five games, averaging 3.4 assists per game over this stretch.

This consistent playmaking output demonstrates an assist-friendly floor that is sustainable given his current role. His season average of 3.2 assists per game already sits above the 2.5 threshold, indicating that this recent surge is built upon a solid foundation. The betting market appears to be undervaluing Monks current situation. The odds of +140 reflect an implied probability of approximately 41.7%, while our analysis suggests a true probability of 72.6%. This substantial discrepancy yields an impressive edge of 30.9% and an expected value of over $74 per $100 wagered, highlighting a significant market inefficiency.

Monk is projected to play between 32-35 minutes, providing ample court time to accumulate the necessary assists in a game script expected to be competitive. The matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who rank 15th in defense against opposing guards, is favorable for Monks playmaking. Historically, Monk has performed well against the Nuggets, averaging 3.5 assists per game in his career against them. The fast-paced nature of the game, with an expected pace of around 100 possessions, will provide additional opportunities for assists. Despite the slight risk associated with the Kings overall offensive struggles, Monks direct involvement in initiating plays ensures he will have chances to distribute.

Adam Fantilli is experiencing a significant offensive surge, making him an attractive target for the Over 1.5 points prop against the Detroit Red Wings. Fantilli has been instrumental in recent offensive successes, including being involved in all three goals in a recent road win, even netting the overtime winner. This demonstrates a potent offensive momentum that transcends his season averages, indicating a player hitting his stride at a crucial time. The matchup against the Red Wings presents a highly favorable environment for offensive production. Detroit has exhibited significant defensive vulnerabilities, highlighted by a recent 5-0 home loss, suggesting their defensive structure is prone to breakdowns.

This porous defense, combined with a projected high-scoring game total of 11.10 goals, creates an ideal scenario for Columbus Blue Jackets forwards to capitalize. Fantillis current production rate of 2.63 points per 60 minutes, achieved despite limited power play time, points to his efficiency at even strength. While the 1.5-point prop is ambitious, Fantillis current form makes it attainable. He requires just one goal and one assist, or two assists, to hit the Over. This is a more realistic target than, for example, a similar prop for a teammate that might require significantly more goal-scoring variance.

Fantilli is averaging a solid 17.4 minutes of ice time, and as a developing star, theres an expectation of increased responsibility and ice time in high-leverage situations. The betting market may be undervaluing Fantillis recent hot streak and the favorable game environment. The +140 odds suggest an implied probability that is significantly lower than his true probability, which is estimated to be around 70% based on his momentum and the matchup. This discrepancy leads to a substantial edge and a strong expected value, making this prop a prime candidate for value betting. The limited power play usage is a constraint, but the Red Wings struggling penalty kill means any opportunity could be highly productive.