Smart NBA & NHL Prop Bets to Target on November 22nd, 2025

P.J. Washington presents a compelling case for the Over 16.5 points prop, underpinned by a confluence of factors pointing towards significant offensive output. His recent form has been exceptional, averaging 17.8 points over his last five contests, showcasing a clear upward offensive momentum. This surge is not a fluke; its supported by an increased usage rate, projected at 20.6% due to teammate injuries, which directly translates to more scoring opportunities.

The matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies is particularly advantageous, as their defense ranks 22nd against opposing forwards, allowing a substantial scoring advantage. The Grizzlies defensive struggles, allowing 112.8 points per game and a 47% field goal percentage to forwards, create a fertile ground for Washingtons offensive game. His ability to stretch the floor, with 20% of his shots coming from three-point range, directly exploits the Grizzlies vulnerability to defending stretch forwards. Furthermore, the projected game pace of 103.5 possessions, above the league average, adds another layer of opportunity, potentially leading to 2-3 extra scoring chances.

The redistribution of usage due to two key Mavericks players being sidelined offers Washington a significant boost, with an estimated 25% of that redistributed usage expected to come his way. This translates to a calculated 1.8 points per game increase. The market has also recognized this potential, with sharp money driving the odds from -130 down to -102, indicating a perceived inefficiency that we can capitalize on. Historically, Washington has performed well against the Grizzlies, averaging 18.2 points in their previous matchups.

Combined with his strong home-court performance this season, where he averages 2.3 more points per game, all indicators point towards a strong offensive outing. The risk factors are manageable, with statistical variance being the primary concern, but the overwhelming positive indicators make this a high-confidence play.

Malik Monk is positioned for a significant assist output in tonights matchup, driven primarily by the absence of DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. This has thrust Monk into a primary ball-handling role, drastically increasing his playmaking responsibilities and opportunities. His usage rate has surged from a typical 18% to an adjusted 24%, a direct correlation to more time initiating the offense, driving, and creating for teammates. This expanded role is not a temporary adjustment; its a necessity for the Kings offensive structure. Monks recent form strongly supports this Over. Hes averaging 3.4 assists over his last five games, consistently clearing the 2.5 assist threshold.

This recent trend aligns with his season average of 3.2 APG, indicating that his current playmaking level is sustainable. The Kings reliance on Monk for offensive creation is paramount in the absence of their top two playmakers, ensuring he will be heavily involved in orchestrating the offense. The expected competitive game script against the Denver Nuggets will also ensure starters play significant minutes, with Monk projected for 32-35 MPG. The matchup against the Denver Nuggets, while not a defensive sieve, is not an insurmountable obstacle for Monks playmaking. They rank 15th against opposing guards, an average unit that can be exploited by a primary ball-handler. Historically, Monk has also performed well against Denver, averaging 3.5 APG in his career against them.

The high-tempo nature of the game, with a projected 100 possessions, provides ample opportunities for Monk to rack up assists. The value proposition here is immense, with a calculated 72.6% true probability of hitting the Over, offering a staggering 30.9% edge at +140 odds. The risks are relatively low, primarily stemming from the Kings overall offensive struggles as a team. However, even in a lower-scoring game, Monks elevated usage and primary ball-handling duties should provide enough opportunities to reach three assists. The altitude in Denver is a neutral factor for assist numbers, and the stable line suggests the market hasnt fully priced in Monks expanded role. The exceptional edge and high probability make this a top-tier prop bet.

Owen Tippetts Over 0.5 Assists prop in tonights matchup against the New Jersey Devils presents a compelling opportunity, largely due to the projected high-scoring nature of the game and Tippetts recent involvement in offensive plays. The game total is projected at an exceptionally high 11.37 goals, indicating an environment ripe for secondary scoring opportunities and assists. Tippett himself has demonstrated recent playmaking form, registering assists in two of his last five contests, showcasing his ability to contribute to the scoring sheet. His consistent offensive pressure is evident in his high shot volume, averaging 2.63 shots per game, which frequently leads to rebound chances or secondary assists.

While his power-play production has been limited against the Devils elite penalty kill, his strength lies in even-strength play, where he averages a robust 2.25 points per 60 minutes. This focus on 5v5 production is crucial, as it mitigates the risk associated with the Devils strong penalty kill. The Flyers home-ice advantage provides a slight boost, and Tippett benefits from the last-change advantage, allowing him to be deployed against the Devils secondary pairings, increasing his chances of creating offense. The market appears efficient, with the projection sitting right at the 0.5 assist line, but the calculated win probability of 70% against the implied odds yields a substantial 17.6% edge.

This indicates a market inefficiency that smart bettors can exploit. The primary risks involve the Devils elite penalty kill, which limits Tippetts power-play upside. Additionally, the projected close score suggests the game could tighten defensively in the third period, potentially reducing late-game offensive opportunities. However, the overall offensive environment and Tippetts consistent involvement in generating shots and offensive zone pressure make the Over a strong consideration.