Expert NBA & NHL Prop Bet Analysis for November 25th, 2025

Cole Anthonys assist prop presents a compelling opportunity, driven by a significant increase in his playmaking role. Over his last 10 games, Anthony has averaged 3.1 assists, a notable 24% uptick from his season average. This expanded responsibility is further amplified by the absence or limited minutes of key playmakers like Paolo Banchero, who is dealing with an ankle injury. This situation is projected to shift an additional 1.2 assists per game towards Anthony.

The Philadelphia 76ers present a particularly exploitable matchup for opposing guards. They rank 22nd in the league in assist defense against the guard position and allow a hefty 26.1 assists per game overall, placing them sixth-most in the NBA. Their bench defense is also a glaring weakness, conceding 12.7 assists to opposing reserves, the third-worst mark in the league. This defensive vulnerability is precisely where Anthony, often operating as a secondary playmaker off the bench, can thrive.

The projected game pace of 100.0 possessions, influenced by Orlandos faster tempo (101.2 pace), suggests a higher volume of scoring opportunities and transition plays. This environment is conducive to increased assist numbers. Furthermore, the assignment of the Scott Foster crew, known for their high foul rate (22.3 PF/game), often leads to more free throw attempts and potential stoppages, which can also extend minutes for bench players and increase opportunities for secondary ball-handlers. Advanced metrics support this projection, with Anthony posting an efficient 4.1 assists per 36 minutes, placing him in the 75th percentile for bench guards.

The confluence of his elevated role, the 76ers defensive deficiencies against guards and benches, and the projected pace of play creates a strong case for him to surpass his assist total.

Jason Robertsons point prop against the Edmonton Oilers is a prime opportunity, stemming from a potent Dallas Stars offense facing a severely compromised Oilers defense. The Stars have been on a tear offensively, averaging an impressive 3.8 goals per game over their last 10 contests, showcasing their offensive momentum and cohesion. This high-octane attack is poised to capitalize on Edmontons current defensive struggles. The Edmonton Oilers are significantly shorthanded on the blue line, missing four key defensemen: Walman, Lyubushkin, Lundkvist, and Harley.

This depletion forces depth players into top-four roles, fundamentally weakening their ability to defend against elite forwards. Consequently, the Oilers have been bleeding goals, allowing an average of 3.9 goals against per game over their last 10 outings. This defensive vulnerability creates a high-leverage situation for offensive stars like Robertson. As a primary offensive driver for the Stars, Robertson is guaranteed significant ice time, likely exceeding 20 minutes, with substantial deployment in offensive zone situations and on the power play.

He has already accumulated 28 points (13 goals, 15 assists) this season, positioning him perfectly to exploit the defensive gaps created by the Oilers personnel issues. His consistent presence on the top line and top power-play unit ensures he will be on the ice during critical offensive sequences. The expectation of a fast-paced, high-scoring game environment further bolsters the case for Robertson to achieve multiple points. The Oilers strong power play also suggests a potential for special teams play, which benefits Robertsons role on the Stars top unit.

While Edmonton boasts a strong home record, their recent defensive collapse indicates that this advantage is currently overshadowed by their personnel issues on defense.

While Brice Sensabaugh has shown flashes of scoring potential, particularly during a recent hot streak where he averaged 12.8 points over his last four games, betting the Over on his 7.5 point prop is ill-advised due to significant underlying risks. Despite this recent scoring surge, his season average remains a more modest 8.3 points per game, indicating a high likelihood of regression towards that mean. The primary concern is minutes volatility.

Sensabaugh operates in a bench role, averaging only 14.9 minutes per game for the season, even with the recent uptick. The potential for blowout games against the favored Golden State Warriors, who play at the leagues third-fastest pace, introduces a considerable risk of reduced playing time, particularly in the fourth quarter. This minutes uncertainty significantly dampens the confidence in him clearing the 7.5 point threshold.

Furthermore, the market price at -122 odds, while appearing to offer a slight edge based on raw probability (58.2% true probability), results in a negative Expected Value (-0.02). This means that even if he hits the over at the projected rate, the odds do not adequately compensate for the inherent risk. The negative Kelly Criterion (-0.04) further reinforces that this is not a mathematically sound wager.

Lingering knee soreness from the preseason adds another layer of concern regarding his consistent availability and minute projection. While the matchup against the Warriors defense, which is weak against forwards, offers a theoretical advantage, the significant risks associated with minutes, regression, and negative expected value outweigh this matchup benefit.